Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Jul 6, 2018 15 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
While we sit around for ambulatory Cabinet ministers and/or #URUFRA, some thoughts on getting to a Art.50 deal:

1/
Part of the issue here is that there are very many moving parts: not only in Art.50 (IE, governance, future relations, etc), but also in UK, in EU member states, and in EU itself

2/
The multiple interlinkages between these have been a factor in slowness of progress: choices on one mean implications for others

3/
When we think about 'a deal' we're typically trying to address all these points simultaneously

4/
But one option is to chop it up across time

Essentially: deal with some points now, while holding on others

5/
Already, we have the big chopping up of withdrawal issues from future relationship issues (even if UK - right now, in fact - still needs to consider both together)

6/
Can also see it in moves to draw out process beyond end of transition, with end goals on customs (of any flavour)

7/
But several key points to keep in mind, if you're going down this road

8/
Firstly, not dealing with a point now doesn't mean leaving it alone, but actively managing it

9/
So, yes, you could park final customs arrangements in mid-2020s, but you also have to agree what happens until then

10/
Part of that management might precisely be setting future goals, and mechanisms to get there, as well as interim arrangements

11/
Secondly, not dealign with a point doesn't mean forgetting about it

12/
Again, a plan and mechanism is vital here, to demonstrate good faith on progress. Some things benefit from being locked away for good, but not these ones

13/
Finally, amortizing across time requires a strategic vision: no good just hoping something will turn up

(insert your own comment here)

14/
So then: you don't have to do it all at once, but if you don't, then you still have some things to keep in mind

/end

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More from @Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
So, what to make of today?

1/
Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/
Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/
Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line



3/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting
By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

Read 8 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
Read 11 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/
Read 15 tweets

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