Thread by @DrDinD

It's likely that #45 names his nomination to replace Kennedy on the SCOTUS tomorrow. Amongst the Democratic leadership & grassroots activists there is agonizing about what is to be done: put up a fight and recognize @SenateDems have no direct means to stop it OR > 1/ #SCOTUS

…fight tooth & nail to postpone until after the election by dragging enough GOP votes to block this. I want to be clear: I believe this appointment is a pivotal one in US and World history, so I come down squarely on the side of fighting it. 2/ #SCOTUS

Before I explain, let me acknowledge & give respect to some excellent arguments put forward to fight a good fight but acknowledge the inevitable, ... /3 #SCOTUS

with great concern that fighting too hard could actually hurt us in the senate, especially with red state dem candidates like @Sen_JoeManchin, @SenatorHeitkamp
@SenDonnelly, @clairecmc, …. 3A/#SCOTUS

.@Demwrite has articulated this perspective well here: demwritepress.com/2018/07/01/tru… - I agree with him that (a) we have no legislative levers apart from a bipartisan vote to block this (b) there is a risk for red state candidates in opposing this 4/ #SCOTUS

This perspective presumes the #SCOTUS nomination will energize many social issue GOP voters, making it difficult for red state senators to win. The argument goes: even if we somehow won that battle, we could lose the war to flip the senate, & then ALL would be lost. 5/ #SCOTUS

This could be correct. I cannot argue against that. Moreover, as @JCTheResistance points out, the possibility of surprises in states like UT, where carpet bagging Romney is not a sure thing, could be undercut. 6/#SCOTUS

Nevertheless, let me offer an alternative view. First, Kennedy was conservative, but moderate on the issues of LGBTQ rights & choice. All of the justices Trump is considering are being proffered/”Vetted” by conservative organizations like the Federalist Society. 7/#SCOTUS

There is no doubt that NONE of these potential picks, in their writings or deeds, will be likely to support hard fought form reproductive rights for women, civil rights for minorities, women & LGBTQ, gun reform measures, campaign finance reform, voting rights, …. 8/#SCOTUS

Thus, this pick, if Trump goes with the current list, will undoubtedly shift the court to the extreme right. Roe v Wade will be overturned. LGBTQ rights gains could evaporate. Voting rights will diminish. Corporate rights will gain. 9/#SCOTUS

Who will be hurt most by the nomination & appointment? The Obama coalition of minorities (especially African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans), women, LGBTQ, young people, with a few discerning white male allies (pat self on back). 10/#SCOTUS

Here is the thing: if, for reasons of realpolitik, the dems put up a nominal fight over the #SCOTUS nomination but bow to inevitability & calculation that red state senate seats are at risk, we could SUPPRESS the Obama coalition vote while exciting the GOP 11/#SCOTUS

Hello 1994, 2002, 2010, 2014. Goodbye #BlueTsunami2018 12/#SCOTUS

Let me remind those of you following along, that it was precisely this Obama coalition at the local level that all but flipped the VA state house & won the governorship for Ralph Northam. 13/#SCOTUS

It was this Obama coalition at the state level, with a tremendous boost from African American women, that pushed Doug Jones to victory in AL. 14/#SCOTUS

It was this Obama coalition that gave @StaceyAbrams the dem nomination for governor in GA & may make history around her in November. 15/#SCOTUS

A calculated bow to inevitability & realpolitik without acknowledging the extraordinary harm that this nomination could do for the rights of the very vibrant constituency of the modern Democratic Party could be, in my view, a horrible calculation to make. 16/#SCOTUS

Moreover, a majority of voters want to see this #SCOTUS pick as a check against the power grab of #45. Last weeks Q poll shows this – from a majority of dem & independent voters & a plurality of GOP voters. 17/#SCOTUS

This desire to check Trump cuts uniformly across age, gender, & ethnicity, STRONGLY. Perhaps, not surprisingly, it is strongest among 18-34 yo, African Americans, & Hispanic Americans. 18/#SCOTUS

A strong majority of Americans (though not the GOP) wants Roe V Wade preserved. This cuts across ages, gender, and ethnicity. 19/#SCOTUS

A majority of Americans, including most African Americans, Women, 18-64 YO, believe the #SCOTUS decisions are primarily POLITICAL. This is stunning! 20/#SCOTUS

A majority of Americans (though not the GOP) feels the @SenateGOP overreached in changing the rules to eliminate the filibuster for #SCOTUS nominations. 21/#SCOTUS

A majority of Democrats, Independents, 18-34 YO, Women, & minorities believe this nomination should wait until after the midterm election. 22/#SCOTUS

To me, this says that the @SenateDems need to put up an all out fight. I do agree with @DemWrite here that the kind of Ragnarok level "do it or get voted out battle" put forward by @HardballChris is ludicrous. No. Just No. But pitched battle, yes. 23/#SCOTUS

Caveats. I understand this is but one poll. I also understand that this is a national poll, & all politics is local. As @JCTheResistance points out, scuttling the nomination before the election could hurt big time in Utah, for example. 24/#SCOTUS

It is also true that polls this far in advance of Labor Day need to be taken with a major does of salt. 25/#SCOTUS

So, what should the strategy be? 1) Relentlessly call for @SenatorCollins & @LisaMurkowski to oppose any nominee who will scuttle Roe V Wade. These two women do not want to go down in history as the votes that killed choice. 26/#SCOTUS

2) Go after retiring @JeffFlake & @SenBobCorker, as well as purple state ones like @SenCoryGardner on the grounds of checking #45’s. #45 is under investigation for serious, potentially treasonous crimes, & this nominee could decide on issues bearing on the outcome! 27/#SCOTUS

3) If 1,2 fail, carry out MASSIVE civil disobedience in DC to shut the govt. down. I see this #SCOTUS of an importance to the future of the country & world that is equal or nearly equal in magnitude to the firing of Rosenstein &/or Mueller. 28/#SCOTUS

Are 1,2 feasible? You bet. Especially 1. Here I cite @NateSilver538 – the dems like Manchin & Heitkamp can take their cues from what Collins & Murkowski do. If those two give them cover, no problem. They are the key pressure points here. 29/#SCOTUS

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1015980057007927296

I will follow this up tomorrow with some examination of the demographics of the red & purple states flagged as at risk by a strong opposition strategy to this #SCOTUS nomination. 30/#SCOTUS

But I feel the dems can in fact energize their core base while doing the right thing in opposing this nomination. It requires massive pressure efforts on keeping the Dems together, and in going after a few GOP senators. Risky? Yes. 31/#SCOTUS

But to my mind, there is a bigger risk in alienating the true base of the democratic party, who stand to lose the most with an awful #SCOTUS nominee who sill sit on that court for decades. FIN/

PS: This nomination could also hurt the rights of immigrants, trade issues, privacy rights, ... the stakes are extremely, extremely high.