1. Conventional "wisdom" in politics is almost always wrong. That's what Mitch McConnell & Co. tried to push on @realDonaldTrump with this SCOTUS pick. They want Trump to pick the most D.C.-friendly nominee. As far as the smartest pick electorally...
2. As far as the smartest pick electorally, this isn't even a choice. Not that I'm expressing a personal opinion, but there's only one candidate who passes the age, base excitement, ideological litmus tests, etc, and forces the Democrats to make a very, very unpopular argument.
3. Updating this now that we are getting closer to #ScotusPick & b/c it's worth pointing out. Listen to and read the reactions. There's only one candidate who 1) won't tick off some wing of his base 2) meets a litmus test and 3) sets a political trap for his opposition. Clearly.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Oct 6, 2018
1. This is not debatable. The Kavanaugh controversy has helped Republicans. There was no downside for the GOP. They needed enthusiasm. There was no upside for the Democrats. They needed to NOT derail their enthusiasm. What the media won't tell you, is that this mistake cost...
2. What the media hasn't explained, is that this mistake cost the Democrats already. Since the Kavanaugh controversy brought home GOP and GOP-leaning indie women, at least two "battleground" states are off the map. It's Oct. 6, and there are now just 2% undecided in North Dakota.
3. McCaskill in Missouri looks to be following a similar pattern as Heitkamp. The movement is less pronounced and a few days behind, but it's unmistakable. Donnelly is stuck around 42% in Indiana and Blackburn continues to widen her lead in Tennessee. It's a very big shift.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
While leading 43-41 isn't being down, the @foxnewspoll is not exactly good news for Joe Donnelly, either. For several reasons. First, and foremost, he is an incumbent generally stuck in the lows 40s. Mike Braun's range is wider and higher.
Secondly, Joe Donnelly has dominated the airwaves during the last few weeks, or another way to look at it, since the last @FoxNewsPoll. And all it did was swing the margin an almost insignificant 4 points, considering the margin. Meanwhile, his support remained flat.
Thirdly, he has little room to move up given the demographic composition of the remaining undecided electorate. He cannot piss off his liberal base in Marion County B/C he needs them. But he might've sacrificed the middle by prematurely announcing opposition to Brett Kavanaugh.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 1, 2018
"NAFTA, as an example, has been a total disaster for the U.S. and has emptied our states of our manufacturing and our jobs. Never again. Only the reverse will happen. We will keep our jobs and bring in new ones."

Candidate @realDonaldTrump, The National Press Club, D.C., 4/27/16
“My plan also includes a total renegotiation of NAFTA so our jobs can come back. And if we can't make a much, much better deal than we have right now, we will walk.”

Candidate @realDonaldTrump, The Summit Sports And Ice Complex, Dimondale, Michigan, 8/19/16
You have to recall when Donald Trump made the promise to renegotiate trade deals to really appreciate the accomplishment. It was one of the first issues that resinated, yet he was mocked over it. TPP was certain. NAFTA was an economic institution, NATO a military one. Blah, blah.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25, 2018
1. Andrew Gillum definitely has a lead over Ron DeSantis. So, we can stop speculating over that. Florida Republicans are extremely enthusiastic, more so than when they out-voted Democrats in the primary. But GOP-leaning indies are depressed. It's lop-siding the indie vote.
2. Further, Rick Scott performs much better against Bill Nelson among indies than Ron DeSantis does against Andrew Gillum. And get this: Roughly 6/10 say they'd never consider voting for a socialist or a candidate who wants a state income tax. That tells us...
3. That tells us that this is a good ole' fashion messaging issue. The media went after Ron DeSantis hard once the GOP out-voted Democrats in the primary. And it appears they scared to the point he's been ineffective at communicating his opponents positions.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 7, 2018
1. Look at response rates below each race being live-polled by @Nate_Cohn and @SienaCollege. It took 22K-36K calls to get 533 responses. So, when a poll claims to have 500 from a voter file/list of 5K, they're full of $#!t. That's what I'm talking about.
2. That said, after a few attempts, you can assign certain variables to entries on voter files, something like "high connect" if a response is > average for a house/cell. So, your files get more productive. But because it still must be random, they never get that productive.
3. How does this play out in states, for instance? Take Florida. Every pollster will be different. But @BigDataPoll, we have higher minimum response standards. For Fla., it's about 900. So, out of the gate, the "first" list, which might take two days, is at least 50K. (cont.)
Read 4 tweets
Sep 4, 2018
Interrupting Chairman Grassley, Senator Blumenthal called the Kavanaugh confirmation "a charade" and "a mockery" before protestor started screaming. Democrats are taking turns interrupting the chairman.
Half of the 10 Democrats on the Judiciary Committee have already announced their opposition to Brett Kavanaugh. So, isn't that the real charade here?
Interestingly, here are the 5/10 Democrats on the Judiciary Committee who already announced their opposition to Brett Kavanuagh. They are the ones asking for postponement.

Harris (CA)
Blumenthal (CT)
Hirono (HI)
Booker (NJ)
Feinstein (CA)
Read 5 tweets

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