Rich
Data journalist and host of 'Inside the Numbers'. Director @BigDataPoll. Opinions are my own. Data don't lie. People do. Love @LauraBaris & my kids.
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Oct 6, 2018 9 tweets 3 min read
1. This is not debatable. The Kavanaugh controversy has helped Republicans. There was no downside for the GOP. They needed enthusiasm. There was no upside for the Democrats. They needed to NOT derail their enthusiasm. What the media won't tell you, is that this mistake cost... 2. What the media hasn't explained, is that this mistake cost the Democrats already. Since the Kavanaugh controversy brought home GOP and GOP-leaning indie women, at least two "battleground" states are off the map. It's Oct. 6, and there are now just 2% undecided in North Dakota.
Oct 3, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
While leading 43-41 isn't being down, the @foxnewspoll is not exactly good news for Joe Donnelly, either. For several reasons. First, and foremost, he is an incumbent generally stuck in the lows 40s. Mike Braun's range is wider and higher. Secondly, Joe Donnelly has dominated the airwaves during the last few weeks, or another way to look at it, since the last @FoxNewsPoll. And all it did was swing the margin an almost insignificant 4 points, considering the margin. Meanwhile, his support remained flat.
Oct 1, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
"NAFTA, as an example, has been a total disaster for the U.S. and has emptied our states of our manufacturing and our jobs. Never again. Only the reverse will happen. We will keep our jobs and bring in new ones."

Candidate @realDonaldTrump, The National Press Club, D.C., 4/27/16 “My plan also includes a total renegotiation of NAFTA so our jobs can come back. And if we can't make a much, much better deal than we have right now, we will walk.”

Candidate @realDonaldTrump, The Summit Sports And Ice Complex, Dimondale, Michigan, 8/19/16
Sep 25, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
1. Andrew Gillum definitely has a lead over Ron DeSantis. So, we can stop speculating over that. Florida Republicans are extremely enthusiastic, more so than when they out-voted Democrats in the primary. But GOP-leaning indies are depressed. It's lop-siding the indie vote. 2. Further, Rick Scott performs much better against Bill Nelson among indies than Ron DeSantis does against Andrew Gillum. And get this: Roughly 6/10 say they'd never consider voting for a socialist or a candidate who wants a state income tax. That tells us...
Sep 7, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
1. Look at response rates below each race being live-polled by @Nate_Cohn and @SienaCollege. It took 22K-36K calls to get 533 responses. So, when a poll claims to have 500 from a voter file/list of 5K, they're full of $#!t. That's what I'm talking about.
nytimes.com/interactive/20… 2. That said, after a few attempts, you can assign certain variables to entries on voter files, something like "high connect" if a response is > average for a house/cell. So, your files get more productive. But because it still must be random, they never get that productive.
Sep 4, 2018 5 tweets 1 min read
Interrupting Chairman Grassley, Senator Blumenthal called the Kavanaugh confirmation "a charade" and "a mockery" before protestor started screaming. Democrats are taking turns interrupting the chairman. Half of the 10 Democrats on the Judiciary Committee have already announced their opposition to Brett Kavanaugh. So, isn't that the real charade here?
Aug 23, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
Good for David McIntosh. Donald Trump's approval in 57 battleground districts is at 49%. This is on them, not him. thehill.com/opinion/campai… McIntosh: "Almost all of these seats are represented by moderates who have dragged their feet on implementing President Trump’s mandates."

He's not pulling that out of thin air. That's what Republican voters say when asked about their lack of enthusiasm.
thehill.com/opinion/campai…
Aug 23, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
1. The numbers have gotten uglier for Bill Nelson in Florida. Another 2-point shift may not sound like much, but down here, we're talking about > 100K votes, even for a midterm. On approvals, Rick Scott is still well above water, while Senator Nelson is now slightly upside down. 2. Spoiler Alert: When our model is published (shortly), you will notice that Florida is rated, Slightly Republican. We've slightly changed our ratings structure (for better), but it's just before "Leans" which will mean actively moving. We're giving Bill Nelson the benefit but
Aug 21, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Just doing some review for the election projection model (short version). Notice @realDonaldTrump had an 8-point lead with indies vs. @HillaryClinton, yet was still 10-points behind her in the RV horserace. LV was 7 points. Final poll before Election Day. realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016… In the 4-way, Donald Trump also had an 8-point lead over Hillary Clinton among indies, but was trailing her by 12 points among RVs and 7 points among LVs, the latter being the same as the 2-way. Again, this was a final poll before Election Day.
Aug 15, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Former public officials have no business keeping their security clearances after service. Neither Rs nor Ds. Military didn't allow it for a reason. This is a lucrative and dishonest market, one that prospers from, by and in Washington D.C. When you read WaPo articles/columns whining over John Brennan getting revoked, remember in 2010 they published "Top Secret America," a series which details this lucrative & dishonest market for security clearances. It has further expanded into Big Media. projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-ame…
Aug 8, 2018 5 tweets 2 min read
Michael Steele to Bruce Ohr on March 7, 2017: "Would it be possible to speak later today please? We're very concerned by the Grassley letter (@ChuckGrassley) and it's possible implications for us, our operations and our sources. We need some reassurances. Many thanks." Worth noting, when Christopher Steele expressed to Bruce Ohr how "concerned" they were about @ChuckGrassley, the Chairman was threatening to hold up Rosenstein's nomination until the FBI explained discrepancies in their explanations re: both Steele and the dossier.
Aug 7, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
And there it is. The turning point. We've seen pluralities credit @realDonaldTrump for the economy over @BarackObama. But now a majority credits him, and the gap continues to grow. It's natural actually. In late July, it rose to 50% (Trump) to 40% (Obama), up from 45% to 45%. P.S. 27% (almost half of Democrats) said the president's impeachment would be good for the economy. 47% disagree.
Aug 5, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Just looking at our data, one of the fundamentals Democrats have on their side is consistent enthusiasm. They mirror GOP in 2014 & 2016. High & relatively flat. Around 70-80 percent, with minimal spikes and dips. GOP enthusiasm bobs up and down, as low as in the 60s. But spikes. Post 2016, GOP enthusiasm was pretty high until John McCain's infamous thumbs down moment. That's the moment. It's crystal clear. They've fluctuated pretty significantly ever since. That gives them these little windows. Democrats have not had to worry about that much.
Jul 25, 2018 5 tweets 2 min read
1. If the election was held today, @FLGovScott would defeat incumbent @SenBillNelson. Not just new polls. Gov. Scott is running very strong among the 18-29 bloc, Hispanic voters and seniors. Senator Nelson has never polled this badly among seniors, who could dominate the vote. 2. We know our own state better than any other fake guru, politico, pundit or pollster. Senator Nelson simply cannot offset his deficit among seniors when Gov. Scott is holding down the margins among traditional Democrat voting blocs, and trouncing him everywhere else.
Jul 9, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
1. @NYTimes editorial attacking him for this couldn't defend an INR graduate thesis with that incoherent nonsense. NATO was designed to be a "balancing" alliance, but all but three counties are "buck-passing." It's a fancy word for us being a SUCKER. 2. "Balancing" is when nation-states make a serious commitment to deter & contain a rival or rivals, by force if needed. With buck-passing, states will attempt to get another great power to shoulder the costly burden. Sound familiar to the not-so smart intellectuals at @nytimes?
Jun 30, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
1. Democrats don't just want unfettered illegal immigration for votes. It's much more than that. Leftists hate the very idea of "nation." Why? Short answer: As Kenneth Waltz noted, nationalism is stronger than ideology. Long answer: In his seminal work on nationalism... 2. Long answer: In his seminal work on nationalism (Imagined Communities), Benedict Anderson set out to answer how "nationalism has proved an uncomfortable anomaly for Marxist theory." Thomas Nairn, the heir to Marist/Leftist theory in the 20th...
Jun 27, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
1. The U.S. is ahead of the rest of the free world, not behind it. We are stronger than you for a reason, and you are only free because of us. You are not a citizen. You are a SUBJECT. Your rights are borrowed from your statist masters, and you have no real way to preserve them. 2. Most "Democratic Socialist" nations would be victims of Democide, or death by big government, if it wasn't for the U.S. coming to their rescue. I'm thinking the U.S. should let everyone fend for themselves. It's easy to have a nanny state when we wipe the world's @$$ for them.
Jun 26, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Historically, Democrats have been the party to obstruct Supreme Court nominees. Of the 15 longest, 10 were right/con nominees, while only 4 were leftwing nominees and 1 was an independent nominee. So, David, if you can't take it, then don't dish it out. peoplespunditdaily.com/news/politics/… 2. Further, one leftwing nominee on aforementioned list was LBJ's. But that wasn’t the fault of his political opposition. Dems held a huge 68 to 32 supermajority in Senate. However, he waited in the wind because they were more focused on the war and war on poverty.
Jun 22, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
1. CHIP should be completely irrelevant, but since you want to go there: it was the Republican Party who wanted to fund CHIP for 9 million vulnerable American children. Democrats tried to hold it hostage to get more votes, ie. amnesty. Then polls turned. peoplespunditdaily.com/news/politics/… 2. I'm not justifying "caged children" by pointing out they have video games. They don't have video games in cages b/c after 72 hours they're not in cages or by chain link fence. They're in posh HHS facilities. You just have no idea what the hell you're talking about.
Jun 19, 2018 21 tweets 8 min read
1. Bullshit. About 200 pivot counties swung the election to Donald Trump after voting for Barack Obama. Floridians in Pinellas & Pasco counties, are not racists. Iowans in Union and Clarke counties, are not racists. Michiganders in Monroe, Saginaw and Macomb, not racists. 2. In PA, Appalachia region represents 52 of the 67 counties statewide, which cast 44% of the Keystone vote. They went for @realDonaldTrump by just under 500K votes, up significantly from the roughly 176,000-vote lead Romney racked up over Mr. Obama. They are not racists.
Jun 15, 2018 8 tweets 4 min read
1. Time for a rant. The Chamber of Commerce holds the you know what of the Republican Party in their hands. They will try to sneak another version through. @RepMarkMeadows & @freedomcaucus are right about how the sausage is made. If a weak... 2. @RepMarkMeadows & @freedomcaucus are right about how the sausage is made. If a weak, liberal amnesty goes to the U.S. Senate, it will only get worse b/c of the dishonest GOP senators who pretend donations from the Chamber of Commerce = they care about illegals. They don't.