Thread by @Usherwood

So, another odd day for Brexit (and not over yet). Chance has meant being away from cutting edge takes, so let's see how it looks from a (small) distance:

1/

Exits of Davis and Johnson don't intrinsically change UK position in Art.50. Chequers is still in place, White Paper still in final prep for Thurs, plus shift of negotiations to No.10 means there's still much momentum in system

2/

If matters stop here, then EU will work on 'as normal' basis, albeit with a new face popping up in BRX from time to time

3/

This is partly because EU has been determined not to get sucked into domestic drama, but mainly because time is short, so need to get moving on outstanding Withdrawal Agt issues

4/

So, so far, nothing more than usual psychodrama.

However, real test comes in next days

5/

If backbench kick off, then scope for very substantial effects.

Motion of confidence will be cause for pause, esp if any sign that May can't win

Leadership contest means full stop to Art.50 negotiations

6/

Same happened with #GE17 (happy days, more innocent times), as EU couldn't be sure about status of UK political negotiators. Even truer now, as no time for wasted effort

7/

Effect will be bigger if ballot of members, because of time needed, of likely shift to harder Brexit PM, plus of more uncertainty about going to early GE

8/

With all this in mind, not surprising to see BRX winding out contingency plans for Art.50 extension.

Politically, this cld only work if UK asks for it, so don't expect any more moves on EU side to push this

9/

In sum

If contained now, fine.

If not, then listen for the sound of hatches being battered down

/end