Thread by @Usherwood

Since it's a thing once again, let's talk Art.50 extension:

1/

So this is one of a group of means of lengthening the Brexit (in the largest sense) process

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However, it's very particular, because it involves lengthening the period that the UK is a member of the EU

3/

You'll recall the 2 year period that we've got. That comes from Art.50 itself, which says 2 years after notifying the EU it wants to leave, a state will leave (unless otherwise agree)

That's designed to protect the sovereign right of the state

4/

The 2 years bit is to allow time to deal with all the detail of unpicking relations.

And because no-one knew whether that might be the right amount of time, there's a mechanism to allow for more time

5/

That mechanism is simply the unanimous agt of the departing state and the remaining EU members.

Procedurally, it's a doddle: a statement from the European Council, signing by all involved

6/

That extension can be of any length, so it's super-flexible

great stuff.

7/

But problems abound

The biggest is that one of the few points of agt w/in UK gvt right now is that membership ends 29 March 2019 (ie 2 years after notification)

8/

There would have to be exceptionally good reasons to justify UK support for an extension, probably grounded in need for a v.short period (weeks) to allow for ratification

9/

That suggests, politically, it would have to be HMG that requests Art.50 extension, rather than anyone on EU side. And right now that's not on the cards

10/

Second big issue is that any extension of more than a couple of months runs into the sticky problem of the European elections #EP19

11/

If the UK is a member then, then it should have elected MEPs to take those roles.

But if they're not going to sit for more than a few weeks, why bother?

12/

Moreover, the seats for the UK have been partly reallocated to other members, so there's a space issue too

13/

This might all be manageable by having nominated (not elected) MEPs for the period, and suspending the reallocation until it ends, but that's all rather messy and legally fraught

14/

Finally, getting unanimity from EU members might not be such 'a doddle'

15/

While no one particularly wants another crisis on their doorstep, caused by a no-deal exit, there are member states that might feel either they can get something out of their consent, or who have had enough of it all

16/

We'll not run through all the possible vetoes here, but worth keeping in mind both domestic politics and inter-state politics dimensions

17/

Politicians always have to keep domestic audiences onside

and

not a whole lot of love between EU members right now, eg on migration, Russia, Trump, etc

18/

To pull this together:

Art.50 extension isn't complex to do, in practical terms.

But it is, in political ones.

/end