Thread by @Usherwood

A quiet day on the Brexit front, so let's think about the coming days:

1/

Today, assuming no resignations, it's about May getting some +ve support from EU leaders at #NATOSummit

2/

(I assume no resignations, as #WorldCup will drown any other story for next 24hrs, plus we seem to have moved from Cabinet to P'y posts)

3/

Problem for May is that Brexit is v.low down agenda today, given Trump challenge to NATO. So at best will be indirect happiness that UK is contributing to response

4/

Tomorrow, we shift to White Paper.

This'll have to elaborate Chequers (if it's to have any chance w COM in Art.50), so scope for more resignations (on lines of "it's increasingly clear...")

5/

Again, media landscape is v.cluttered tomorrow, between #WorldCup woes/joy/unrealistic futures and impending Trump visit, so rebels might have to wait until w/e to get much profile

6/

(profile matters if May is to feel any pressure BTW: that needs either some v.vocal individuals or a big volume of them)

7/

Trump will soak up much attention on Fri/Sat, esp if #NATOSummit and/or UK visit has been a mess, so key goal for No.10 will be to get to Monday w/o any more big challenges to the Chequers agenda

8/

At that point, Art.50 negotiations kick off again, and it can be sucked into a process where it can drop out of view for a while (assuming COM doesn't trash it)

9/

So, a tricky few days to come

/end