Tomorrow @PeterGHallXIII and I will be discussing the latest results from @ExportDevCanada's Trade Confidence Index (our semi-annual survey of 1,000 Canadian exporters).

In addition to the usual questions on the outlook, we've added #NAFTA, investment, #CPTPP and more. #CdnEcon
...Here's a rundown of the results, starting with a short video by @PeterGHallXIII to tee up the release of @ExportDevCanada's latest Trade Confidence Index #CdnEcon
Key finding 1: Since our last survey, Canadian exporters have become more optimistic about the near-term outlook - due to by higher expected domestic and export sales.
...Gains in EDC's Trade Confidence Index were broad-based, and occurred for all:
- firm sizes,
- sectors of the economy; and
- regions of the country.
...I see a notable divergence between Canadian exporters' experiences (i.e., order books) and general perceptions (in dramatic media coverage).

Despite elevated uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policy, more Canadian exporters have actually experienced growth in U.S. orders.
...More Canadian firms expect their export sales to grow. This is consistent with Bank of Canada's recent projection update - which raising its export forecast, even after increasing the restraint coming from U.S. trade policy action and uncertainty on Cdn exports & investment.
...More Canadian exporters expect to increase hiring in the next six months, but say they are facing increased challenges in accessing skilled labour (which is consistent with recent Bank of Canada's business outlook survey results on a similar question).
...More Canadian companies plan to increase investment. In particular, we see an emerging trend of more action -and interest- on the part of Canadian firms to invest abroad (including directly in the U.S. market, perhaps to avoid tariffs or that threat; China plans also notable).
...In our survey, Canadian exporters are highlighting two main risks: one of which is natural at this point in the business cycle (rising interest rates); the other is the result of heightened uncertainty in global trade, primarily driven by U.S. trade policy actions and threats.
...Not surprisingly, a growing share of Canadian exporters say ongoing #NAFTA talks have had a negative impact on their company's Canadian operations (28%, up from 23% in the last survey). with highest concerns in transportation, for large firms, and those in Ontario & out West.
...#NAFTA talks are having a negative impact on investment plans for Canadian exporters, reflecting an “investment hesitation” by some firms. All told, we estimate that up to 6% of Canadian firms are delaying their investments because of the elevated level of uncertainty.
...We also see Canadian firms responding to the uncertainty in the US market by diversifying their global operations.

In our last survey, there was a significant increase in the number of Cdn exporters who have started exporting to new countries and those who plan to do so.
...You can find more results in a longer version of this deck I posted on slideshare… #CdnEcon
...And now @PeterGHallXIII is getting ready to do an interview on @BNNBloomberg to discuss the latest results from the @ExportDevCanada Trade Confidence Index #CdnEcon

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More from @stephen_tapp

Aug 16, 2018
I'm seeing lots of very proud & excited people finishing their PhDs this month, which is awesome!

It's now been 10 years since I graduated.

People occasionally ask for advice on doing a PhD - basically is it all worth it?

Obviously it depends on lots of factors...
.It's fair to say that it was really hard. It felt like running a marathon. Lots of ups and down.

I spent some days doing math like this, or writing code. It was a slow and deliberate process. Occasional flashes of deep insights, and other times asking "why am I doing this?"
...If you're not seeking to publish in top journals and getting a tenure track job, you're often treating like a second class citizen.

But even if that's not your goal, the exercise of working in depth on a narrow topic over several years helps to refine your thinking/approach.
Read 7 tweets

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