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Jul 15, 2018 3 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Final standings (every ranking has France today) in my 2018 #WorldCup prediction evaluation exercise @SoccernomicsLtd
🥇Congrats @LloydsofLondon @CBSSports 1st place
🥈@GoldmanSachs runner-up
🏅@FIFAcom participant
✅Range 33-41
✅Range (2014) 34-43
Thanks for following along!🙏
Some big changes in ranking success from 2014 to 2018:
FIFA rankings -8
@AndrewGKYuan -7
538 +4
Goldman Sachs +4

In knockouts the rankings collectively averaged 8.15 correct
✅just above coin flip odds of 7
✅below favorites with 9

Such predictions are fun, but largely futile😎
@LloydsofLondon & @TMuk_news (Transfermarkt) both ranked France 1️⃣🇫🇷

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Oct 8, 2018
1⃣A short thread on what the new @IPCC_CH report says about trends in extreme events, specifically: heat waves, drought, floods, tropical cyclones, tornadoes. Let's go . . .
2⃣Temperature extremes: Nor change from AR5 or SREX
Very likely= ⬇️cold days and nights
Very likely= ⬆️warm days and nights
Likely= "consistent changes are detectable on continental scale in North America, Europe and Australia"
3⃣Drought. No change vs AR5
"low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale... likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia"
Read 11 tweets
Sep 12, 2018
A comprehensive look at US hurricanes, climate modes & damage⬇️
Klotzbach, P., Bowen, S. G., Pielke Jr, R., & Bell, M. (2018). Continental United States hurricane landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. BAMS.…
Higher numbers of east coast landfalls & damage occur in ENSO neutral years
(climate variability is so out of vogue, I know😉)⬇️
US east coast population & housing units have increased dramatically since 1940
Read 8 tweets
Aug 8, 2018
Earl & Simmonds 2018 Spatial and temporal variability and trends in 2001–2016 global fire activity. JGR:A 123:2524-2536.
"There is a very strong decline in global fires (stat sig at the 0.1% confidence level; hereafter p < 0.001), present in each season except Dec–Feb (p < 0.1)"
Earl & Simmonds 2018:
"most of these large‐scale regions of the world exhibit little change or decreasing in fire activity except India (box 14) and China (box 17—...), with a weak nonsignificant signal in Canada"…
"The mainland United States (box 3) displays no 2001–2016 trend in [active fires] ... This is also the case for the satellite‐based [burned area] studies (Andela et al., 2017; Giglio et al, 2013), though BA has been found to be increasing in some surface‐based U.S. studies" . . .
Read 4 tweets
Aug 8, 2018
"the incidence of floods over mainland France is found to be stable over the last 35 years and even falling once we account for the heightened population pressure"…
"rates of forest fire destruction display a significative downward trend, the anthropogenic rate fell from about 5% to 2% (over the period 1973–2017) while the natural rate is about 100x smaller and likewise falling. . . "…
". . . The latter fact proves that the incidence of natural forest fires over the French mediterranean seaboard is receding over the last 44 years."…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 7, 2018
Climate chg is real & can/will impact fire
Evidence still matters (or not?)
Keeley & Zedler 2009:
“Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires >10 000 ha”
Biggest known CA fire? Maybe 1889
To discuss.
Conclusion of Keeley & Zedler 2009 (spoiler, it’s us in many ways)
Changes in climate, resulting from GHGs, or just variability can of course influence fire
But whatever we do on GHGs (& I’ve got plenty of good ideas) the problem of fire is here to stay and caused often by our settlements in fire-prone regions, which impacts both risk & exposure
Read 6 tweets
Aug 1, 2018
This NYT article on climate policy history brings together alternative history with a disaster movie plot (brave scientists warns the world). The world was not on the brink of rapid decarbonization in the 1980s. It's a fun story though⬇️
What Frank Press (NAS prez, Carter science advisor) wrote 1989:
"Substantial reduction of CO2... responsible for 1/2 of the temp rise, will require a change in the energy economy of the world at a cost of 100s of Bs to Ts of $ & may not be technically possible over next 40 yrs"
More Press 1989 (a Democrat, scientist):
"I cannot recommend such large investments at this time in view of the uncertainties, but this does not mean doing nothing. I do urge you to undertake the following program . . ."…
Read 4 tweets

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