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Jul 21, 2018 17 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Small thread on the lack of empathy on the British side about EU's lack of flexibility on four freedoms and vassalage. /1
There are three key drivers of the current impasse of negotiations: control of borders (aka less migration), end of ECJ oversight and control of own laws as well as constitutional (or territorial) integrity of UK. /2
All those aspects seem not compatible w/ EU red lines which leads to shouts of betrayal and resistance towards vassalage and submission is needed. /3
This is - at best - difficult to understand from EU side and at best inconsistent with UK's own approach. Why does Britain feel entitled to those red lines but reject EU's red lines which are equivalent? /4
Didn't David Davies highlight, that EU needs UK more than vice versa? Didn't JRM highlight that "EU bill" is desperately needed by EU & if UK doesn't pay, EU'd get bankrupt? Both draw pictures about powerful UK being able to force a deal since by threatening EU's survival. /5
Both are, whether you like it or not, important political leaders in UK and not some random backbenchers. You can find similar lines by Priti Patel & Boris Johnson btw. Question here is: If UK is entitled to threaten EU, why is EU not entitled to reciprocate? /6
But leaving this strange exceptionalist drive behind us: How would UK would have reacted when Scotland would have seceded? Before somebody shouts that this is wrong equivalence: a key pillar on the Leave side's argument is equating EU w/ a state or super state. /7
From the hard Leavers perspective, this comparison w/ Scottish case would make sense, doesn't it? Back to #indyref: let's imagine Scottish quality newspapers would have ranted on "Johnny Englishman" taking away school places and employment or stressing NHS resources? /8
How would you have felt? Just imagine Scottish politicians would have said that the border needs to stay open but Scotland bedds to be fully autonomous to set own standards to compete against companies in England? /9
Imagine they would have claimed that you need them more then they need you, because you need their oil (they actually did that what caused major outcries). /10
Now imagine they actually won the referendum and demand to not put a border while saying at the same time that they will put lower regulatory standards to be more competitive (David Davies was suggesting that btw). /11
Imagine they still demand seats in HoC because your laws effect them - although they are out of the Union. Imagine they say at the same time they want to have less Englishmen because they are a strain on Scottish society and its institutions. /12
And now ask yourself what you would expect from your politicians how to ready on it. Would you think that those demands are reasonable? Would you think that goodwill is justified (remember how people from England were treated during and after the campaign)? /13
Would u feel like giving up ur border control for them & trust that they don't start a regulatory race to the bottom? Would u trust that they keep their word on English people living up north? Wouldn't u demand that rUK's politicians use their power to protect your interests? /14
If you feel exactly like that, why do you expect from the EU the exact opposite. They have interests which are grounded on national audiences, Britain created mistrust ("Jacub the Polish Plumber" powered by Telegraph) and demands flexibility impeding your sovereignty. /15
And this although EU is much bigger, in nearly every possible way. EU acts in self interest & is pursuing their goals in the same way UK would if they'd have the power to do so. It's not mean or malicious, but interest driven politics backed by power - not more, not less. 16/16
PS: Before somebody starts w/ "democratic vote": Imagine just people with SCO heritage're allowed to vote regardless how long u lived in SCO or contributed to SCO society. If u lived more than 10 yrs in ENG you can't vote either, b/c you r too English to vote in SCO interests).

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More from @s13GES

Sep 29, 2018
Not really. It's a nicely written piece and brings you closer but also shows why a lot of politicians are utterly misplaced in the Brexit negotiation (and why keeping them mostly out was a very good decision from EU side). /1
To be fair, it's often forgotten that politicians are humans and not manifestations of opportunistic evilness. However, there are a lot of ppl out there who're decent but w/ an incredibly low technical & conceptual skills. U like to drink a beer w/ them but their work's shit. /2
Under normal circumstances Davis would have been right to say that politicians are not supposed to be experts or incredibly intelligent, they show the direction and Civil Servants implement it. /3
Read 19 tweets
Sep 27, 2018
I don't think it ever was an option. There is already a second tier with EEA/EFTA. But how could another variety look like without undermining the Single Market?
Keeping that in mind, I would credit HMG for at least acknowledging it even though they don't know how to apply it. There is still a somewhat British illusion that SM entails just goods and services, maybe capital at best.
There are four freedoms. Taking CH as an exception is also misleading given that they have hundreds of agreements (they are not part of a partial SM) and need to acknowledge FoM.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 26, 2018
If this is true, it would rather resemble a historic miscalculation on the scale of Russia during WW1.
There are already ongoing comparison, e.g. @garvanwalshe and @KeohaneDan discussing on UK as the equivalent to Serbia. But from my perspective, that's not accurate.
Serbia had at this time a quite nationalistic drive, but wasn't divided as e.g. UK. It was a historic miscalculation to believe, that killing the heir of the Austrian monarchy would bring them closer to their pan-serbian dream but that's about it.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 25, 2018
Really interesting developments in Germany which brings us back to the question whether Merkel's indeed "weakened" as some British commenters (among others e.g. @GoodwinMJ) suggested: It highly depends on the context, the way it's often framed is - however - rather misleading. /1
The context in which people suggest that Merkel is weakened is the raise of populism: Broad idea, Merkel's is a typical example of centrist politicians who lose out or get increasingly under pressure by populist parties or populist within her own party. /2
This is not entirely wrong but definitely not correct either, it's a bit misleading and grossly simplified - rather fitting it to a narrative of populist rise than actual a accurate capture of her position. /3
Read 23 tweets
Sep 25, 2018
1bn dollar question: will they? Key problem throughout the whole "negotiation" (it really isn't one, EU offers and UK must chose) is that UK doesn't accept it's lack of power. It pretends and insists of being treated as an equal. /1
This is to EU a problem, it delays the inevitable from their point of view. Hoping for a Corbyn government isn't on their plan, since it would presumably ask for the same degree of exceptions (just with focus on different areas than Tories). /2
The question here would be how to make sure that - regardless of who is in charge - HMG accepts the power imbalance and behaves (also in the near future) accordingly. Extension might not help to solve that but prolongs delusion of equality in this unequal relationship. /3
Read 8 tweets
Sep 24, 2018
It is a challenge, since there was little what they did right but on fairness there was nothing what they could have done right. /1
Let's take the the notion of not invoking A50 on the day after the referendum: well, would have been clever if there was ever a chance of an inner UK consensus about a realistic approach. /1
Or agreeing on financial settlement and citizen rights in December: Sure, would have been great if there ever was a chance that UK doesn't pay or threatens rights of EU citizens. Can they do one of it w/o paying a price which costs them economically or politically their heads?
Read 11 tweets

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