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@s13GES
PhD candidate, mainly focussing on Political Communication, Media & Campaigning matters. Interests: EU(ropean), British & German Politics.
Birger Leth Profile picture 1 subscribed
Sep 29, 2018 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Not really. It's a nicely written piece and brings you closer but also shows why a lot of politicians are utterly misplaced in the Brexit negotiation (and why keeping them mostly out was a very good decision from EU side). /1 To be fair, it's often forgotten that politicians are humans and not manifestations of opportunistic evilness. However, there are a lot of ppl out there who're decent but w/ an incredibly low technical & conceptual skills. U like to drink a beer w/ them but their work's shit. /2
Sep 27, 2018 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I don't think it ever was an option. There is already a second tier with EEA/EFTA. But how could another variety look like without undermining the Single Market? Keeping that in mind, I would credit HMG for at least acknowledging it even though they don't know how to apply it. There is still a somewhat British illusion that SM entails just goods and services, maybe capital at best.
Sep 26, 2018 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
If this is true, it would rather resemble a historic miscalculation on the scale of Russia during WW1. There are already ongoing comparison, e.g. @garvanwalshe and @KeohaneDan discussing on UK as the equivalent to Serbia. But from my perspective, that's not accurate.
Sep 25, 2018 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
Really interesting developments in Germany which brings us back to the question whether Merkel's indeed "weakened" as some British commenters (among others e.g. @GoodwinMJ) suggested: It highly depends on the context, the way it's often framed is - however - rather misleading. /1 The context in which people suggest that Merkel is weakened is the raise of populism: Broad idea, Merkel's is a typical example of centrist politicians who lose out or get increasingly under pressure by populist parties or populist within her own party. /2
Sep 25, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1bn dollar question: will they? Key problem throughout the whole "negotiation" (it really isn't one, EU offers and UK must chose) is that UK doesn't accept it's lack of power. It pretends and insists of being treated as an equal. /1 This is to EU a problem, it delays the inevitable from their point of view. Hoping for a Corbyn government isn't on their plan, since it would presumably ask for the same degree of exceptions (just with focus on different areas than Tories). /2
Sep 24, 2018 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
It is a challenge, since there was little what they did right but on fairness there was nothing what they could have done right. /1 Let's take the the notion of not invoking A50 on the day after the referendum: well, would have been clever if there was ever a chance of an inner UK consensus about a realistic approach. /1
Sep 24, 2018 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Some thoughts about the Britain is Greece myth: it has a true core, but there are important differences. /1 1) Greece was about EU but mostly about Euro shortly after a heavy crisis. Current comparisons with Greece need to be understood in that context. /2
Sep 22, 2018 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
Threat on media reception of Salzburg "slap down" and it's implications for the future process: So far the reception by media as well as reactions by politics might rather be helpful to EU than to UK. TM finest hour might help especially the EU. /1 Looking at the reactions of continental media outlets on Salzburg you get not much. Brexit is quite often just a sidenote. If there was an intention to humiliate it was certainly nor for the European audience. They just don't care. /2
Sep 18, 2018 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The interesting part is, that the behaviour of the British industry would come as a surprise by some and might even worsen a potential no deal crisis. /1 So far the British industry was remarkably silent over Brexit. Although CBI aired several warning, individual manufactures were rather quite when it comes to negative impacts on Brexit. Prominent warning were rare. /2
Sep 4, 2018 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Choice is not the problem but the grasp of consequences is hence it is a gross misrepresentation to classify the Brexit ref as biggest democratic exercise. /1 In plain terms, if you chose what can't be chosen it is neither a democratic problem nor a crisis of government but lack of grasp to understand the the choice was never on offer. /2
Aug 31, 2018 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts from somebody who actually studied in Chemnitz political science (w/ focus on extremism btw) and was engaged in different anti-racism projects on spot. /1 AfD is, at least in Saxony, quite strong. In Chemnitz itself the party scored roughly 25% in the last election. However, the party itself is isolated within the political landscape. /2
Aug 26, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
@pmdfoster Well, that depends on you perspective. He is merely suggesting that the legal side of the matter is far less dramatic than people assume. It takes a while and until it gets serious, it might be resolved. /1 @pmdfoster However, there are other aspects to consider: it seems to me at least bad looks if a newly emerging WTO member starts his newly gained autonomy with a major breach. /2
Aug 26, 2018 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
It's an interesting thread with brilliant pointe. However, the conclusion deserves further consideration. DD's point, is that he warns to beware self-fulfilling prophecies (of failure) at the same time he he cheers for them (prophecies of victory). /1 Apart from empowering self-fulfilling prophecies at the same time he rejects them, there are at least two other flaws. /2
Aug 22, 2018 • 4 tweets • 9 min read
@APHClarkson @JXB101 @cellsatwork @cathyby @Muinchille @Sime0nStylites @AndrewDuffEU @pmdfoster @KeohaneDan I will certainly read it. Actually I was thinking on writing a blog and focus on those aspects since UK seems to ignore the rather life threatening point of Brexit. I'm also not sure whether people understand that UK will become a political subject to EU. @APHClarkson @JXB101 @cellsatwork @cathyby @Muinchille @Sime0nStylites @AndrewDuffEU @pmdfoster @KeohaneDan I could imagine scenarios (rather extreme tbh) where EU might interfere into internal affairs of UK if there are signs of disintegration. Some people are way to optimistic if they believe that there won't be support on EU side if a no deal leads to strengthening of SCO & NI Nats.
Aug 22, 2018 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
@pmdfoster @AndrewDuffEU Briefly read it, I still think there is a good amount of disbelieve among British pundits that Ireland is now a key decision maker and that SM integrity is more important than stability of any kind in UK. It won't fly. /1 @pmdfoster @AndrewDuffEU The best what UK can hope for is a vague statement (in WA) to consider the merits of the Chaqeurs proposal and to seek a solution which respects the various red lines. It won't be legally enforceable. /2
Aug 15, 2018 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Some people got seriously excited about this tweet and see it as a confirmation that "something is moving". I'm (very) sceptical about it, for several reasons. /1 Let's assume that this encounter was authentic and the Tweet represents accurately the chat between those two diplomats. /2
Aug 10, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Poor wording. Given the high degree of polarization it's expectable that hardline Leavers would prefer a vote b/w "no deal" and Chaqeurs while Remainer b/w Chaqeurs and Remain. They'd hold a ref w/ three options but it's unlikely anybody had this in mind while being surveyed. /1 In any case it is not clear if either option would be acceptable for majority of people to be held. Probably the best option to go forward is a three way either in two rounds or w/ AV. However, it is very likely that in any way electorate will feel betrayed. /2
Aug 10, 2018 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Some comments from the perspective of EUParl, a veto player able to block any Withdrawel Agreement and FTA in the negotiations, on EU-UK migration matters. /1 The role of EUParl is generally underappreciated in UK media. The focus is rather on Commission and Council (esp. FR & GER). This is justified to some extend hence it covers a wide range of key actors and institutions. However, it ignores that EUParl plays a significant role. /2
Aug 9, 2018 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I'm seriously wondering why British commenters get so excited: there are states in EU who don't care much about FoM (namely Northern European states which are in the outer ring of EU anyways). It seems that this rumour came from there which is worth nothing. /1 Without vocal support from either FR or GER there is no chance of even discussing such an idea. For is unlikely to support it and even if Merkel'd become more open to this idea, SPD would resist it (which kills GER support). /2
Aug 7, 2018 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Interesting and cool headed thread I would agree in principle but two points make me think that this description doesn't picture the scale of the drama correctly. For one, it misses that Britain's economy is building up on the current arrangements - SM premium access is the foundation of it. Especially for supply chains, upcoming changes can easily become a killer. For one they work on the basis of comparatively small profit margins. /1
Aug 6, 2018 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
Interesting tweet but don't agree that it asks the right question(s). Instead of asking how to solve it, it's more realistic to ask why can't you solve it. Implicitly this is already highlighted here and also gives a glimpse why DUP was "stupid" enough campaigning for Brexit. /1 To understand the current impasse between this two neighbours the initial asked question: how could the GFA been done w/o EU is key. It would have required that IRE and UK pool their sovereignty, just to overcome the legal-technical barriers of such an agreement. /2