Matteo Villa Profile picture
Aug 2, 2018 10 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
(⛔️🚢BREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. In July, 23% of #migrants departing from #Libya made it to Europe. This is the LOWEST share ever.

72% were caught and brought back.

5.2% died or went missing.
(⛔️🚢BREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. Since July 16th, numbers paint an even starker (and somewhat different) picture.

99.5% of #migrants departing from #Libya were caught and brought back.

0.5% died or went missing (very few).

No one made it to Europe.
(🔴BREAKING) DEPARTURES FROM LIBYA ARE DOWN MARKEDLY. In June, about 6,900 migrants took to the sea from Libya's shores. This month, about 3,000 did: a 56% drop that is highly unusual during the Summer season.
(🔴BREAKING) LIBYAN COAST GUARD AT FULL STEAM. Activity by LCG continued to increase vs 2017 for second month in a row. But an understaffed and underequipped LCG will be under a lot of pressure in case departures start to increase again.
(🔴BREAKING) DEAD AND MISSING AT SEA - RISK STILL HIGH. Since June 1st, attempted crossings from #Libya have become riskier. Over the last two months, 6.1% died or went missing upon leaving Libya, more than double the average of 2.4% since 2017.
(🔴BREAKING) The absolute number of #migrants estimated to have died or gone missing upon leaving #Libya declined from 451 to 157.
Still higher than the average 97 dead and missing after the drop in departures since July last year, but not too far.
So, is the "strategy of total deterrence" working?

- Method: low / no search and rescue + higher risk of dying upon leaving #Libya
- Aim 1: sharp decline in departures from #Libya + no-one makes it to Italy ✅
- Aim 2: keeping number of dead and missing low ⁉️
And what is the "strategy of total deterrence" disregarding?

- # of people trapped in #Libya's detention centres;
- risk of #AssoVentotto cases reoccurring (paradox of Libyan JRCC coordinating SAR while Libya not being place of safety);
- why focus on flows after July 2017 drop.
The dataset is publicly available here:…

It will be constantly updated over the next months.
Very small CORRECTION: I double counted the #AssoVentotto (#asso28) case. Once accounting for that:

24% of #migrants departing from #Libya made it to Europe. This is the LOWEST share ever.

71% were caught and brought back.

5.4% died or went missing. 👇

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Matteo Villa

Matteo Villa Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @emmevilla

Sep 4, 2018
(⛔🚢BREAKING) NO WAY OUT. As fighting in #Tripoli rages on, this August just 1,300 #migrants left #Libya in an attempt to reach Europe by sea.

This is the LOWEST Summer figure since 2012.

Migrants are trapped in #Libya, often in appalling conditions. Made even worse by the recent fighting in #Tripoli.
FOLLOW this crucial reporting by @sallyhayd. 👇

(⛔🚢BREAKING) Of the 742 that made it to Europe from #Libya this August, less than a third (234) disembarked in Italy. Of these, 190 were onboard an Italian Coast Guard ship during the "#Diciotti standoff".

Another 56% (416) disembarked in Malta.
12% (87) disembarked in Spain.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 16, 2018
Nave #Diciotti e i 177 #migranti ancora a bordo: proviamo a fare chiarezza?

(SPOILER: non sarà per niente facile)


#Malta sostiene che il barcone con 190 #migranti ieri notte non fosse in pericolo (distress), e che per questo motivo quando era in loro zona SAR lo MRCC maltese non abbia coordinato salvataggio ma solo affiancato barca e prestato assistenza.
Secondo Malta, questo è sufficiente perché La Valletta non debba indicare un proprio “porto sicuro” per sbarcare i #migranti raccolti dalla nave #Diciotti.
Ma la realtà è ben più complessa.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 11, 2018
🚢⛵️🚤🤔With less NGOs at sea (#Aquarius @MSF_Sea, @openarms_fund), we have seen people being saved from sturdier boats, trawlers arriving directly to 🇮🇹 shores.
The question: do NGOs' search and rescue activities affect how #Libya smugglers send #migrants at sea?
First: TIMING.

Data shows that rubber dinghies were already the most used means of transport in 2015, when NGOs were small minority of rescuers.
It also shows shift to smaller vessels (dinghies + small boats), from 78% to 90%+. But these were already large majority in 2015.

Using what yearly data we have available, is there any evidence that NGOs affected the prevalence of unseaworthy rubber dinghies, as compared to sturdier vessels? Well, NOPE. 👇
Read 9 tweets
Jul 23, 2018
⛔️🚷LA STRATEGIA DELLA DETERRENZA TOTALE. Su @ilfoglio_it di ieri, @borga_lor fa un grande lavoro per spiegare la strategia #sbarchi di questo Governo e per darne una misura dei rischi.
Leggetelo o, almeno, seguitemi qui sotto. 👇…
La "strategia Salvini" ha un obiettivo principale: ridurre gli sbarchi in Italia. E uno secondario: evitare le morti in mare.

Ma arriva dopo dieci mesi di calo sbarchi post-Minniti, in cui:
- gli sbarchi sono calati del 76%;
- morti e dispersi si sono ridotti del 74%.
Parliamo di numeri assoluti:

- SBARCHI. Nei 10 mesi e mezzo prima del calo sbarchi erano giunte in Italia circa 170.000 persone. Nei 10 mesi e mezzo di calo, circa 40.000.

- MORTI e DISPERSI IN MARE dalla Libia. 10 mesi e mezzo, prima e dopo: da 4.150 a 1.070.
Read 12 tweets
Jun 24, 2018

So. The #Lifeline case has descended into another Aquarius case. Meanwhile, 16 leaders of EU Member States meet for an #EUCO informal meeting on #migrationEU.

Time for a brief recap of the role of #NGO-s doing #SAR operations in the Central Mediterranean? 👇

Irregular sea arrivals to Italy are WAY down, and continue to be (-78% y-o-y), even as NGOs carried out over 40% of SAR operations in 2017 and 2018.
Still, 51% of Italians believe flows are as high or higher than last year's.👇
Second: DETERRENCE VS NGOs does not pay off (much).🚢⛔️📉

Over the last two weeks of the new goverment's "deterring measures", the decline in sea arrivals vs 2017 is broadly in line with the drop experienced since July 2017. With or without #Aquarius and #Lifeline arrivals. 👇
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!