Thread by @MgS_2011

[Thread] With Canada's Conservatives going into a full court press in Alberta, I think it's worth taking a look at what we might expect from a Kenney-led government. #ableg #abpoli /1

The first point to bear in mind here is the fact that we are seeing the same tactics being played out at all levels of government where conservatives are running. /2

In Alberta, we've had Kenney running around making all sorts of dog-whistle politics claims about how "great" he will make Alberta, but he has been surprisingly silent about just what that means in terms of policy. /3

Even after a "successful" founding convention, we don't even have a summary document of policy resolutions that were passed from the #UCP, much less any coherent attempt to turn that into a policy platform that Albertans could look at and assess. /4

Frankly, at this point, both the @ABLiberal and @AlbertaParty have more coherent policy platforms than the @Alberta_UCP does. The UCP platform seems to be "NDP Bad" ... and doesn't get much beyond that. /5

Kenney has been arguing that the @albertaNDP government "lied" to Albertans because the carbon tax wasn't explicitly part of their 2015 election platform. Very specifically, the NDP said they were going to develop a plan and execute it - which they have done after consultation /6

About the only thing we can say here is that Kenney and the UCP would likely trash the Alberta Carbon Tax, only to have the Federal version imposed. They will then spend millions of taxpayer dollars fighting a losing court battle. /7

Beyond that, the UCP is shockingly devoid of platform on anything. Do we have an economic plan from them? Nope. Do we have any kind of commitment to key social infrastructure like education, health care, emergency services, etc.? Nope. /8

What about the major infrastructure projects going on in the province? Again - nope. /9

What we do have is a group of politicians lusting after the 90s heyday of Ralph Klein and Mike Harris. Kenney has tried to paint himself as another Klein, and Ford is in many ways repeating a lot of Harris' over-simplified economics. /10

So, let's take a look at what we are seeing play out in Ontario, because I think a lot of the same people who played a role in getting Ford into office will be advising Kenney (or are advising him). /11

Ford, for example, said he would allow the minimum income pilot project to run its course during the election. (This was an explicit promise) - he cancelled it this week. /12

Ford just unilaterally changed the structure of the Toronto municipal elections - overturning the results of a consultative process that wrapped up in 2016. This was neither part of his platform, or discussed publicly prior to being imposed. /13

As soon as Ford was elected, a revision of Social Studies curriculum which would have included more First Nations content was mysteriously cancelled. /14

... and I'm sure there will be much more coming from Ford in the next year or two. /15

How does this inform Alberta about what Kenney is likely to do?

First, it's classically Straussian thinking. The idea that once in power, a leader has discretion to act pretty much as he pleases (and yes, 'he' - I doubt Strauss would have approved of women in power). /16

It's no secret that Kenney's former boss (and now puppet master?), Stephen Harper, was very much influenced by Strauss. A lot of the policies Kenney brought in while in Ottawa reflect a similar attitude towards the idea of consultation. /17

Ford is a thug - in that I will grant that Kenney is a very different man. That doesn't mean we should take either at their word. (Ford has shown what his word is worth, and Kenney's evasiveness on SoCon issues should raises similar concerns here). /18

Ford has shown us what conservative campaigning is in 2018: Say whatever you have to in order to secure that vote. Once you're in power, you can do whatever you like. /19

In Alberta, I can see a number of things happening under a Kenney government - and they wouldn't necessarily be talked about at all during election. /20

1) Repeal the carbon tax.
2) Return to Klein era tax structures (this would be a massive tax cut, and they would probably go further)
3) Gut infrastructure funding. I would bet that the cancer centre build in Calgary would be scaled back or delayed. /21

4) Ring road construction in Calgary will mysteriously be scaled back or delayed (in spite of hard deadlines in the land agreement).
5) Dismantling of AHS will resume, with more and more services done under PPP contracts of one sort or another. /22

6) Funding for private and semi-private schools will be increased at the expense of public schools. /23

On Social matters we will see the following:

1) Cuts to Alberta Works funding. (as if it isn't bad enough already - someone on AW gets a max of $700/mo right now)
2) Curriculum revisions that have been underway since 2015 will be scrapped for "being ideological". /24

3) We will see a major "delisting" of coverage under AHCIP (the insurance portion of Alberta Health). This will be aimed at such icky topics as abortion and support for transgender patients. /25

Kenney will not talk about a lot of these issues directly - just as Ford has refused to. Instead, we will hear vague talk about finding "efficiencies" and "saving taxpayer dollars". /26

The reality will be far more authoritarian in tone - and will probably make Prentice sound like a refined diplomat. /27 ~fin~