🚢⛵️🚤🤔With less NGOs at sea (#Aquarius @MSF_Sea, @openarms_fund), we have seen people being saved from sturdier boats, trawlers arriving directly to 🇮🇹 shores.
The question: do NGOs' search and rescue activities affect how #Libya smugglers send #migrants at sea?
The question: do NGOs' search and rescue activities affect how #Libya smugglers send #migrants at sea?
First: TIMING.
Data shows that rubber dinghies were already the most used means of transport in 2015, when NGOs were small minority of rescuers.
It also shows shift to smaller vessels (dinghies + small boats), from 78% to 90%+. But these were already large majority in 2015.
Data shows that rubber dinghies were already the most used means of transport in 2015, when NGOs were small minority of rescuers.
It also shows shift to smaller vessels (dinghies + small boats), from 78% to 90%+. But these were already large majority in 2015.
Second: CORRELATION.
Using what yearly data we have available, is there any evidence that NGOs affected the prevalence of unseaworthy rubber dinghies, as compared to sturdier vessels? Well, NOPE. 👇
Using what yearly data we have available, is there any evidence that NGOs affected the prevalence of unseaworthy rubber dinghies, as compared to sturdier vessels? Well, NOPE. 👇
At the same time, the average number of #migrants embarked on rubber dinghies has increased and remained high, with some commentators arguing that if it is not a shift towards worse vessels, it is overcrowding that matters.
But, as @daniel_howden pointed out yesterday, "Blaming the Rescuers" argues convincingly that the shift towards overcrowded rubber dinghies was linked to the anti-smuggling operation EUNAVFOR MED destroying hundreds of migrant vessels, rather than to NGO activity at sea. 👇
Third: NEWS DO NOT A TREND MAKE.
In mid-2016, despite NGOs ramping up their SAR activity, there was already talk that business model was changing towards *larger* boats. That was disproven later.
The catch: do not mistake real-time events for trends!
lastampa.it/2016/06/01/est…
In mid-2016, despite NGOs ramping up their SAR activity, there was already talk that business model was changing towards *larger* boats. That was disproven later.
The catch: do not mistake real-time events for trends!
lastampa.it/2016/06/01/est…
Fourth: MOST GO BACK.
Data relying on rescues is more and more partial. The large majority of departures from #Libya nowadays result in people being intercepted and sent back.
They leave on rubber dinghies, and do not show up in North Med statistics.
Data relying on rescues is more and more partial. The large majority of departures from #Libya nowadays result in people being intercepted and sent back.
They leave on rubber dinghies, and do not show up in North Med statistics.
https://twitter.com/emmevilla/status/1024930319986839553
BOTTOM LINE: the decline in NGOs' SAR activity since mid-2017, and even more after @matteosalvinimi declared Italy's ports to be "closed", may affect the business model of smugglers from #Libya. ✅
For now, however, there is NO indication that this is happening. ❌
For now, however, there is NO indication that this is happening. ❌
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