Thread by @jonworth

In my most recent blog post I argue that when a political crisis hits in 🇬🇧, 🇪🇺 is going to have to contemplate extending the #Article50 period.

Blog post is here:
jonworth.eu/the-political-…

This thread examines some of the aspects of extending Article 50 (or not)

1/12

First some background - I have an older blog post here about why extending the Article 50 period would be a good idea:
jonworth.eu/transition-per…

And the relevant part of Article 50 is shown here - unanimous agreement of EU-27 needed to extend

2/12

Extending the Article 50 period is not something either side really wants.

BUT No Deal #Brexit is the thing both sides should absolutely fear, especially 🇬🇧 but even the 🇪🇺, whose Member States (especially 🇮🇪) would take a major GDP hit.

3/12

So if Brexit talks hit a deadlock, break down in some way, the Tories hold a leadership election, or the 🇬🇧 holds a General Election, extending Article 50 has to be contemplated.

Even a negotiation delay is dangerous just now - the Brexit timetable is already so tight.

4/12

Yet talking about this issue ends up with all sorts of questions being raised. I will address each.

Q1: You need unanimity to extend Art 50 - would you get that?

A: The EU-27 does not want a No Deal Brexit. If that were the alternative you would.

5/12

Q2: Enough of this messing around. We want the 🇬🇧 out now! Why can they not just go?

A: Do you want No Deal Brexit and a hard border in Ireland? Do not forget here that no hard border in 🇮🇪 is 🇪🇺's number 1 priority.

6/12

Q3: But a Brexit delay means having to organise a European Parliament election in 🇬🇧. And UK would get a Commissioner. Why should we do that?

A: In comparison to a No Deal Brexit this is a pretty low price to pay. The MEPs and Commissioner would leave when 🇬🇧 leaves.

7/12

Q4: But it would be a strange election in the UK, and they would elect a load of populists!

A: Have you seen who the UK has elected until now? And the EP has a say on Brexit, so why should UK citizens not have a say on it?

8/12

Q5: Who in the UK would even want to stand in such an election if they would not know how long they might have a seat?

A: There are plenty of Brexiters and Remain people who would be only too ready to stand - 🇪🇺 politics matters like never before in 🇬🇧.

9/12

Q6: But 🇪🇺 wants to be done with all of this. Isn't a transition period for 🇬🇧 better?

A: The proposed transition period just postpones the problems, and denies 🇬🇧 citizens a voice in 🇪🇺, potentially for an indefinite period. That is a democratic scandal.

10/12

So - in conclusion - extending #Article50 is not a panacea. Both sides are right to not want it. But one of the alternatives - a No Deal Brexit - is considerably worse for all concerned. So faced with that, extension does not look too bad.

11/12

I'd welcome the views of @fbrantner @FabianZuleeg @alemannoEU @FHenriques @JulienHoez @davidallengreen @robfordmancs on this - comments from all of you about this topic motivated me to write this thread.

12/12