Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Aug 13, 2018 11 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Jaap Titular, commenting at Climate Audit,
climateaudit.org/2018/07/19/a-r… has interesting take on key Indictment paragraph about word searches in Moscow yielding breadcrumb trail from #Guccifer2 - a key new link outside G2-DCLeaks "bubble".
2/ Jaap points out that exact wording of paragraph doesn't make sense if you watch the pea (as we've learned to do in climate). The sentence as written rolls easily, but Jaap asks why you would log into a Moscow "server" to do a Google search.
3/ Jaap then observes that supposed reason why you searched your Moscow server for these words is "because you use those exact same words later in some piece that you are writing. ??? Does that even make sense ???"
4/ in associated comment climateaudit.org/2018/07/19/a-r… provides a more reasonable interpretation of Indictment para 41: that G2 logged into his PC, connected to Moscow-based VPN and began ordinary Google search for the identified words.
5/ Jaap's next question:"why they would search for words that they would later use in a document. I mean they simply used the exact same term that they searched for..they searched for ‘illuminati’ and then later used that term in the document. So why ‘search’ for it?" Why indeed?
6/ Jaap mulled over possibility that Indictment might have been imprecise: perhaps "they did not mean search but ‘translation’", but, against that, points out the term "dcleaks" is not likely to have been submitted to Translate.
7/ Jaap plausibly interpreted p41 allegation as: "G2 used a VPN service in Moscow and then used Google Translate to translate some terms from Russian into English. And then they later (#42) used these same English terms in a document that was later published by G2 (in the US)."
8/ Jaap observed that the effect of the search (SM: like the "Russian" metadata in G2's 1.doc) was a breadcrumb trail. He presumes that "search" for term "dcleaks" was plausibly through inclusion in text submitted to Google Translate.
9/ Jaap then observed that "you can use a VPN service located in Moscow from anywhere in the world, even from the US." and asks sensible question: "But why would you specifically want to use one located in Moscow? Assuming that you really are a Russian spy?" Yup.
10/ Jaap's alternative: use Google Translate to translate some terms from English into Russian. Then you start up (another) VPN session,.. select Russia..via VPN server in Moscow.. get Moscow IP address. Then go to Google Translate and put in your Russian terms." Breadcrumb trail
11/ in this context, @jeffreycarr 's acute analysis of spearphish use of yandex[.com email address bears re-reading. He not only pointed out possibility of false flag, but surmised that user didn't even speak Russian: see medium.com/@jeffreyscarr/…

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More from @ClimateAudit

Sep 22, 2018
unusual connection between Blasey and @MichaelEMann.
Kraemer &Blasey 2006, "Centring in regression analyses: a strategy to prevent errors in statistical inference" observed that "Using non‐centred data in regression analysis..often leads to inconsistent and misleading results".
2/ use of non-centered data in principal components is much worse, as observed in McIntyre and McKitrick 2005 climateaudit.info/pdf/mcintyre.m… where we observed that Mann's centering on a subsegment profoundly biased results towards a hockey stick. In response, Mann argued that centering.
3/ was merely an arbitrary convention and advocated alt-statistics - an ideology which satisfied the highly ideological climate community. While Blasey did not expressly turn her attention to the perils of non-centering in principal components, it is a logical consequence of her
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21, 2018
1/ @RyanMaue and
@BjornLomborg challenge Guardian article theguardian.com/weather/ng-int… claiming that Atlantic hurricanes getting worse. In 2006-7, I observed that entire increase in observed hurricane-days occurred in mid-Atlantic climateaudit.info/pdf/agu07_hurr…
2/ I analysed entire HURDAT database (39,125 records) from 1851-2007 stratifying data by longitude quartile to see if trends different in longitude quartile
3/ median longitude of hurricane records had shifted 10 degrees east (towards mid-Atlantic) since start of aircraft reconnaissance
Read 15 tweets
Sep 8, 2018
Papadop's lawyer told judge that "the timeline is so important in this case" but his narrative screwed up simple chronology of events. More gong show.
2/ Pap met Mifsud in Rome on March 14, announced on Trump foreign policy team in WaPo on March 21, has lunch in London on Mar 24 with Mifsud and Olga; meets Trump foreign policy committee on Mar 31; has "dirt" breakfast with M on Apr 26. Apr 30 last day at LCILP.

Simple.
3/ @Techno_Fog got transcript. Watch how lawyers botch. They start with Mar 21 announcement of Trump foreign affairs committee.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 5, 2018
interest news about two Russians apparently visiting Skripal on March 4. Arrived at train station at 11:48, walked towards Skripal house, seen on CCTV at 11:58. Next seen on CCTV at 13:05 near town center, back to train station at 13:50. Skripals seen on A360 at 13:35, then
2/ then at Sainsbury parking at 13:40, feed ducks at 13:45, then to Zizzis and Mill Pub (inconsistent versions of order), collapse on park bench at 16:15. Window for Russians at Skripal house is about 12:05 to 12:45. Police say they sprayed doorknob. Wonder if they met Skripal?
3/ if Skripals were inside house at time and left just prior to A360 sighting, then both must have touched outside doorknob on exit at say 13:20 - note: usually only one person in party shuts door, but maybe they forgot something.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 4, 2018
@ProfMJCleveland recently observed thefederalist.com/2018/08/20/pap… that Schiff Memo docs.house.gov/meetings/ig/ig… contained details from Page FISA application that were redacted in FOIA version. Hans Mahncke and I have tried to interpolate: see
steemit.com/papadopoulos/@…
2/ for the purposes of guessing the redactions, the Schiff Memo appears to have been written in Times New Roman font 11, with left and right margins ~1" and 1.18". In case anyone wants to examine other possibilities in this paragraph or elsewhere in memo.
3/ our best guess as to first two redactions is "from an American diplomat" (Elizabeth Dibble) and "to a senior diplomat in London" (Alexander Downer). Reasoning is explained here: steemit.com/papadopoulos/@… Obviously speculative. I can't see any valid reason for redactions.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 1, 2018
Akmetshin testimony to Senate: English translation of Russian-language documents filed by Browder in @PreetBharara case against Prevezon were falsified
judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
2/ another interesting item in Akhmetshin Senate testimony: he and Veselnitskaya lobbied a congressional delegation visiting Russia in early April 2016
3/ event can be identified: on Apr 3, 2016, five US congressmen: three Democrats (David Cicilline, Brian Higgins, Juan Vargas) and two Republicans (French Hill, Dana Rohrbacher) at Valdai Club discussion. Valdai program director is Igor Timofeev
valdaiclub.com/events/posts/a…
Read 15 tweets

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