Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Sep 22, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
unusual connection between Blasey and @MichaelEMann.
Kraemer &Blasey 2006, "Centring in regression analyses: a strategy to prevent errors in statistical inference" observed that "Using non‐centred data in regression analysis..often leads to inconsistent and misleading results". 2/ use of non-centered data in principal components is much worse, as observed in McIntyre and McKitrick 2005… where we observed that Mann's centering on a subsegment profoundly biased results towards a hockey stick. In response, Mann argued that centering.
Sep 21, 2018 15 tweets 5 min read
1/ @RyanMaue and
@BjornLomborg challenge Guardian article… claiming that Atlantic hurricanes getting worse. In 2006-7, I observed that entire increase in observed hurricane-days occurred in mid-Atlantic… 2/ I analysed entire HURDAT database (39,125 records) from 1851-2007 stratifying data by longitude quartile to see if trends different in longitude quartile
Sep 8, 2018 12 tweets 4 min read
Papadop's lawyer told judge that "the timeline is so important in this case" but his narrative screwed up simple chronology of events. More gong show. 2/ Pap met Mifsud in Rome on March 14, announced on Trump foreign policy team in WaPo on March 21, has lunch in London on Mar 24 with Mifsud and Olga; meets Trump foreign policy committee on Mar 31; has "dirt" breakfast with M on Apr 26. Apr 30 last day at LCILP.

Sep 5, 2018 7 tweets 2 min read
interest news about two Russians apparently visiting Skripal on March 4. Arrived at train station at 11:48, walked towards Skripal house, seen on CCTV at 11:58. Next seen on CCTV at 13:05 near town center, back to train station at 13:50. Skripals seen on A360 at 13:35, then 2/ then at Sainsbury parking at 13:40, feed ducks at 13:45, then to Zizzis and Mill Pub (inconsistent versions of order), collapse on park bench at 16:15. Window for Russians at Skripal house is about 12:05 to 12:45. Police say they sprayed doorknob. Wonder if they met Skripal?
Sep 4, 2018 5 tweets 3 min read
@ProfMJCleveland recently observed… that Schiff Memo… contained details from Page FISA application that were redacted in FOIA version. Hans Mahncke and I have tried to interpolate: see… 2/ for the purposes of guessing the redactions, the Schiff Memo appears to have been written in Times New Roman font 11, with left and right margins ~1" and 1.18". In case anyone wants to examine other possibilities in this paragraph or elsewhere in memo.
Sep 1, 2018 15 tweets 6 min read
Akmetshin testimony to Senate: English translation of Russian-language documents filed by Browder in @PreetBharara case against Prevezon were falsified… 2/ another interesting item in Akhmetshin Senate testimony: he and Veselnitskaya lobbied a congressional delegation visiting Russia in early April 2016
Aug 30, 2018 7 tweets 2 min read
a puzzle on Papadopoulos' plea. Pap said that Mifsud told him about "dirt" early on, while FBI said that Mifsud actually told him about "dirt" in "late April". Since Mifsud flatly denied telling Pap about dirt and no record in contemporary emails , how did FBI KNOW "late April"? 2/ after puzzling a long time about this, I just noticed "late April" date in Schiff memo on Page FISA warrant of Oct 2016, i.e. three months before interviewing Pap in Jan 2017. So what was basis of "late April" date in FISA application?
Aug 29, 2018 32 tweets 11 min read
1/ in 2008, historian Mary Hershberger re-appraised John McCain's statement that "I’m an old Navy pilot. I know when a crisis calls for all hands on deck" in connection with 1967 catastrophe on USS Forrestal in which 134 dead/missing and 161+ injured.… 2/ catastrophic fire and explosion of multiple bombs resulted from concatenation of events described in official report…. McCain was in jet at epicenter, but luckily managed to walk away unscathed, while everyone around him perished or seriously injured.
Aug 23, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
both Cohen and Manafort were convicted on counts of making false statement on bank loan application. So was Imran Awan, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz' IT pal. Unusually, the judge (Tanya Chutkan, a 2013 Obama appointee) apologized to the just convicted felon… 2/ Chutkan, the same judge who ruled that illegal immigrants had right to government-funded abortions, apologized to the convict during sentencing for the "unbelievable onslaught of scurrilous media attacks" against just convicted Awan
Aug 22, 2018 16 tweets 5 min read
there's remarkable structural similarity between the 8 Manafort and 8 Cohen convictions. 5 of 8 counts are individual years of income tax. Next, bank loan applications: Manafort 2, Cohen 1. Manafort (1 count) not registering foreign bank account; Cohen (2) campaign contribution 2/ if one were to ask ordinary citizens to single out a form of pernicious political abuse, it would be using the IRS against one's political enemies. But surely it's even worse when such IRS persecution is carried out by a Special Counsel with its extra resources and power.
Aug 20, 2018 32 tweets 8 min read
Mueller Sentencing Memorandum against Papadop is astonishingly sour and surly. It demonstrates gross incompetence by both FBI and Mueller for which they attempt to blame Papadop, rather than admitting. In doing so, they lied to court about timing, just as they accused Papadop. 2/ Mueller said that lies "caused damage" to investigation because they were "early" in investigation when "key decisions" were being made. In fact, Papadop interview was nearly six months after investigation started. Mueller lied about timing, just as he accused Papadop of doing
Aug 13, 2018 11 tweets 5 min read
Jaap Titular, commenting at Climate Audit,… has interesting take on key Indictment paragraph about word searches in Moscow yielding breadcrumb trail from #Guccifer2 - a key new link outside G2-DCLeaks "bubble". 2/ Jaap points out that exact wording of paragraph doesn't make sense if you watch the pea (as we've learned to do in climate). The sentence as written rolls easily, but Jaap asks why you would log into a Moscow "server" to do a Google search.
Aug 6, 2018 14 tweets 5 min read
THREAD: the first article on DNC hack was in WaPo, June 14, by Ellen Nakashima… It almost certainly stays close to script developed by DNC and Crowdstrike. So how does it stand up now that we know more? One expects disinformation, but form can be telling 2/ DNC admitted hack of "database of all opposition research" and "all email and chat traffic". Clinton said that, to her knowledge, Clinton campaign "has not been hacked into" and would be priority.
Aug 5, 2018 22 tweets 6 min read
The Mueller indictment stated that "GRU" had leased several servers in the US which were used in DNC/DCCC hack. It also reported that Fancy Bear/APT28 lingered in DCCC network longer than previously stated. Both connect to interpretation of July 5 copy speeds associated w VIPS. 2/ before discussing, some new information. all files in ngpvan 7z archive analysed by VIPS uploaded on July 5. But other G2 zipfile (cf) contains sequential timestamps on other dates which give further perspective. Graph below shows cumulative upload (MB) in June 20 interval
Aug 3, 2018 7 tweets 2 min read
1/ last year, I observed… that majority of DNC hack emails, including most damaging, were sent AFTER Crowdstrike diagnosed that DNC network hacked by Russia. 2/ on May 6, 2016, senior DNC officials KNEW that DNC servers had been hacked by Russia. Nonetheless, DNC officials persisted in exchange of emails that were so embarrassing that exposure forced resignation of Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Aug 1, 2018 7 tweets 3 min read
Duncan Campbell's article in ComputerWeekly about Adam Carter, while purporting to combat disinformation, is rife with inaccuracies, falsehoods and disinformation. He falsely stated that timestamps examined by Forensicator "present only" in London documents. 2/ This is trivial to rebut. Corresponding timestamps are present in zipfile posted by G2 in October 2016… (which I discussed…). Corresponding timestamps also present in zipfile posted on June 21, 2016…
Jul 29, 2018 5 tweets 2 min read
another QFD shadow-ban
@_ImperatorRex_ @DropTha_Mic25 QFD shadow-banned
Jul 28, 2018 14 tweets 4 min read
1/ Mueller indictment included three references to domain linuxkrnl[.net, a domain not previously mentioned in any intel assessment, attribution or pundit commentary. Can we learn anything by drilling into its details? 2/ para 61 stated that domain linuxkrnl[.net was "encoded in certain X-Agent malware" on DNC network and that domain renewed "in 2015" using bitcoins. For now, look away from (interesting) bitcoins and note both early date (2015) and hard coding of domain in malware.
Jul 24, 2018 20 tweets 5 min read
1/ on June 12, 2016, @JulianAssange announced "upcoming leaks in relation to Hillary Clinton … We have emails pending publication". This announcement is believed by many to have precipitated DNC's announcement of hack (via WaPo and Crowdstrike)… 2/ however, there was relevant incident on June 8, thus far unnoticed in this respect. On June 8, DCLeaks published… several archives, one of which was entitled "HILLARY CLINTON ELECTION STAFF CLIPS".
Jul 23, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ FBI misrepresented chain of evidence in FISA: Isikoff-Corn state that between Steele and "sub-sources" was Steele's "chief collector", Russian emigre in west who traveled east after Steele-Simpson meeting ~June 5 and returned by ~June 18-19. My notes on book below. 2/ Skripal traveled to Estonia to meet with intelligence officers in June. Also worked for Pablo Miller of Orbis. Why don't we know identity of Steele's "chief collector" through whom sources report? Skripal fits perfectly. Amazingly perfectly.…
Jul 22, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
@jimmysllama @with_integrity
1/ 20 documents in June 18, 2016 G2 release: 7 are in October cf zipfile DCRegion 2015-2016 directory without date change; 9 re-dated by Ernesto Che, of which 7 so far identified in Podesta emails, two not; one docx from Podesta unchanged 2/ two pdfs identified from Podesta unchanged; one not tracked: Confirmed Attendees April 2016