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Alex Krüger Profile picture
@krugermacro
Aug 14, 2018 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
1/ At current prices, top 5 PoW coins (BTC, ETH, ZEC, BCH, LTC) are creating about USD 22 million in coins every day, USD 8 billion a year. BTC represents 56% of that total, while ETH represents 30%. Given current depressed prices, can be assumed ALL are being sold. #mining
2/ Miners, together with exchanges and ICOs, need to sell their coins to fund their operations. These market participants represent natural sellers. Combine that with the relative absence of new crypto investors, and you have the reason for prices crashing. #DemandAndSupply
3/ Given the dearth of new retail investors, crypto has been looking towards the infamous influx of institutional investors to save the day, the institutional investors that are not coming. Hence the importance of an ETF & its likely upcoming rejection. hackernoon.com/cboebitcoinetf…
4/ We all recall the July pump. It was caused by a combination of oversold markets and an ensuing technical breakout, all on the back of market participants getting overly excited about a bitcoin ETF, due to misinformation. Chart shows Google Trends for "bitcoin ETF".
5/ Mining numbers referenced in the first tweet can be found here: coinmetrics.io/charts/#assets…. Fantastic website @nic__carter.
6/ Corollary: buying into BS and #fakenews spewed by influencers and the media can be very costly. The misinformation and optimism spread around in early July about the ETF was all over the place.
7/ Bitmex is making about 650 BTC a day in fees, or USD 4 million at current prices. Assuming an average trading fee of 0.15%, exchanges listed on Coinmarketcap (excl. Bitmex, US Futures, and Transaction Mining exchanges) receive USD 46 million in coins every day.
8/ So exchanges receive a total of USD 50 million in coins per day. What percentage are they selling every day? Let's assume 80%. That would make the combined daily selling pressure from miners and exchanges USD 62 million, or USD 23 billion per year. And that excludes ICOs.
9/ Is there over USD 23 billion of fresh fiat coming into crypto, to counter the natural sellers? Consider as well these outflows represent a staggering 12% of the current market cap. The imbalance is notable.
10/ Anything to add to my analysis? Please shoot.
Had to recalculate and repost as had initially failed to take into account both maker + taker fees on every trade, as pointed out by @Lucid_TA.

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More from @krugermacro

Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 4, 2018
Lot's of talk about Tether & Bitfinex, some even mentioning "exit scam". Crypto pairs in Bitfinex are trading at 0.75%-1% premium over spot exchanges. However, same can be observed in Tether exchanges. e.g. prices in Binance same as in Bitfinex =>this is not a Bitfinex issue.
A couple of red flags aside, I don't think there is reason to be particularly concerned. Selling of Tether for other asset-backed stable coins is to be expected.
Now anyone operating in an exchange exposed to Tether or one that performs no KYC is always exposed to some sort of tail risk. Only way around that is moving to crypto-fiat regulated exchanges, which have higher operational costs (KYC is expensive) and charge higher trading fees.
Read 5 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 3, 2018
#deletefacebook

forbes.com/sites/parmyols…
Narrative: "My top priority has always been our social mission of connecting people and bringing the world together" ~ Zuck.

Reality: "People ... I don't know why. They "trust me". Dumb fucks." ~ Zuck.

His top priority is using people to sell targeted ads. #deletefacebook
It all started with Facebook's Timeline, an intrusive interface designed to push ads. Other things followed: recording phone logs, hacks, 3rd party apps snooping, discriminating users, nudging for users to provide more and more and more information, etc.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 2, 2018
Brazil stocks +5% today in USD terms, strictly on political news. Chart locks great for longs. 1st round Presidential elections Oct/7. The two most voted candidates go onto a 2nd round on Oct/28.
Chart aside, what one trades is the elections: Bolsonaro (right-wing populist wildcard, similar to Trump, initially despised by markets, now seen positively as much better than the alternative) vs. Haddad (left-wing candidate, Lula's party). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian…
Two things behind today's rally.

- new info on the corruption scandal involving Haddad's party: voanews.com/amp/brazil-jud…?

- more importantly: Ibope polls showing a sharp improvement in Bolsonaro's odds.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
1/ Key factors for global markets

- Fed tightening: rising rates, balance sheet reduction, USD funding squeeze. Fed expects three more hikes in 2019.
- US economy overheating. Fiscal cuts in action, US profit margins at all time highs, unemployment at lowest level since 2000.
2/
- US treasury curve inverting, pointing towards incoming recession.
- Oil spiking in response to demand shocks and low spare capacity could lead to increased inflation and tightening.
- Ballooned public and corporate debt levels.
3/
- Trade wars: US tariffs would result in China's GDP dropping 75bps. Worldwide spillover effects.
- To compensate, China looking to reflate domestic economy via spending & monetary easing.
- EM at risk from Fed tightening and strong USD; are these already priced in?
Read 5 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
Chart shares one of my signals which I call the Volume Thrust. It's a high volume/volatility breakouts signal. Can be applied to multiple time frames i.e. five minute charts or daily charts. Sharing it to illustrate price action concepts.
Understanding this is useful for investors as well who want to enter positions only with the trend. It's also helpful to any trader who is fearful of buying a top. Buying a top or selling a bottom sometimes represents good decision making.
First, when there is a high volume push in one direction, a trader generally wants to go in the direction of the push. Second, when push fails and price reverses in full beyond origin point, that's a trap, trader wants to reverse position (or at least exit prior position if any).
Read 11 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 27, 2018
This could happen to crypto exchanges offering trading of security tokens and security token derivatives. If $XRP were to be defined as a security it would jeopardize exchanges such as Bitmex. Binance is at risk regardless. Lots of security tokens there.
Sounds familiar?

(Source: sec.gov/news/press-rel…)
Just yesterday I was reading about how 1broker had started offering CFDs on cannabis stocks, offering traders to open an account with an email address, fund it with bitcoin, and hit it with 50x leverage.
Read 8 tweets

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