Alex Krüger Profile picture
🇦🇷 Economist. Trader. Entrepreneur. Advisory. Columbia MBA. Bitcoin '13. Sharing views on crypto and global markets.
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Oct 4, 2018 5 tweets 1 min read
Lot's of talk about Tether & Bitfinex, some even mentioning "exit scam". Crypto pairs in Bitfinex are trading at 0.75%-1% premium over spot exchanges. However, same can be observed in Tether exchanges. e.g. prices in Binance same as in Bitfinex =>this is not a Bitfinex issue. A couple of red flags aside, I don't think there is reason to be particularly concerned. Selling of Tether for other asset-backed stable coins is to be expected.
Oct 3, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
#deletefacebook… Narrative: "My top priority has always been our social mission of connecting people and bringing the world together" ~ Zuck.

Reality: "People ... I don't know why. They "trust me". Dumb fucks." ~ Zuck.

His top priority is using people to sell targeted ads. #deletefacebook
Oct 2, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Brazil stocks +5% today in USD terms, strictly on political news. Chart locks great for longs. 1st round Presidential elections Oct/7. The two most voted candidates go onto a 2nd round on Oct/28. Chart aside, what one trades is the elections: Bolsonaro (right-wing populist wildcard, similar to Trump, initially despised by markets, now seen positively as much better than the alternative) vs. Haddad (left-wing candidate, Lula's party).…
Sep 29, 2018 5 tweets 1 min read
1/ Key factors for global markets

- Fed tightening: rising rates, balance sheet reduction, USD funding squeeze. Fed expects three more hikes in 2019.
- US economy overheating. Fiscal cuts in action, US profit margins at all time highs, unemployment at lowest level since 2000. 2/
- US treasury curve inverting, pointing towards incoming recession.
- Oil spiking in response to demand shocks and low spare capacity could lead to increased inflation and tightening.
- Ballooned public and corporate debt levels.
Sep 29, 2018 11 tweets 3 min read
Chart shares one of my signals which I call the Volume Thrust. It's a high volume/volatility breakouts signal. Can be applied to multiple time frames i.e. five minute charts or daily charts. Sharing it to illustrate price action concepts. Understanding this is useful for investors as well who want to enter positions only with the trend. It's also helpful to any trader who is fearful of buying a top. Buying a top or selling a bottom sometimes represents good decision making.
Sep 27, 2018 8 tweets 3 min read
This could happen to crypto exchanges offering trading of security tokens and security token derivatives. If $XRP were to be defined as a security it would jeopardize exchanges such as Bitmex. Binance is at risk regardless. Lots of security tokens there. Sounds familiar?

Sep 26, 2018 6 tweets 2 min read
The case for $BTC $3000 in one image. I do not believe $BTC will trade $3000 ever again, yet one has to acknowledge that beyond the round numbers there's little support below the year lows.
Sep 22, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Tweet below uses two year old news to drive a false narrative, getting thousands of likes & retweets. Fake narratives are dangerous and spread like a virus. #fakenews Facts:
#1 Argentina banned credit cards from dealing with Uber in 2016 not 2018.
#2 Ban was because Uber refused to abide by the law.
#3 Uber's competitor, Cabify, abides by the law, and can accept cards.
#4 Uber does not allow users to pay with Bitcoin.
Sep 22, 2018 9 tweets 2 min read
1/ Thread on Stops vs Stop-limits

Stop orders execute at market once a price has been reached. Executing at market means executing at whatever is the best available price. Market orders should be used when certainty of execution is a priority over price of execution. 2/ Best available price may not be stop price => a stop order may not fill at stop price. This is called slippage. Slippage can be large in fast moving iliquid markets. Slippage is the price to pay to guarantee certainty of execution. It does not represent exchanges cheating.
Sep 20, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Market digesting the SEC news. Neither bullish nor bearish IMO.
Sep 20, 2018 5 tweets 2 min read
I am fascinated by the #cannabis industry. It offers massive growth potential and represents a standard against prehistoric regulations. However, prices of public companies make no sense. Latecomers will get butchered. Valuations are not justifiable. Revenue numbers of these multi billion dollar cannabis companies make me think of the number of ethereum daily users.
Sep 19, 2018 5 tweets 1 min read
V-reversal $BTC Cannabis money flowing back into crypto 😉
Sep 19, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
Friends this week calling me out of nowhere to ask about how to invest in #cannabis stocks. The same happened with #crypto in Dec/17- Jan/18. To be fair, calls last year started rolling in waves in early December ... $XRP was still trading in the cents back then.
Sep 18, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
Irrational exuberance. Seems that the more the market talks about Tilray specifically commenting how wild this cannabis bubble is, the more people buy it.
Sep 14, 2018 8 tweets 3 min read
Ray Dalio talks #economics. Must watch. Here he covers emerging markets economic crises as well as how the next big crisis will shape up.
Ray Dalio's investing approach is centered around processing data into actionable conclusions. His goal has been to understand how the economic machine works. History repeats itself, he claims. His hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, embraces econometrics.
Sep 12, 2018 7 tweets 1 min read
On $ETH, it may pop given oversold levels and record margin shorts (Bitfinex) yet even if it does I expect it to remain weaker than competing tokens. Fundamentals & technicals aside, the Bitmex swap is a big deal. It allows those looking for an alts downside hedge to short $ETH. Say a portfolio manager is concerned about the downside of his alts portfolio. He is expecting a continued crash. But doesn't want to close the longs as expects a strong bounce eventually, and going in and out of iliquid positions is very expensive. So he hedges.
Sep 12, 2018 5 tweets 1 min read
$BTC daily chart says down for as long as below $7500. Rare quintuple bottom there - be ready for blood if it breaks. Short-term finding a base and trying to break-up. $XBT
Sep 6, 2018 9 tweets 3 min read
Crypto markets dropped like a rock on Sep/5. $ETH even recorded its third worst day every. Sometimes it is good not to rationalize a market move too much. Some big sellers came in, price tanked, end of story.

Many still asking what happened, so let's look at some facts. - Fundamentals are currently weak given supply/demand imbalance.
- BTC had rallied 19% straight in 2 weeks, most alts much more.
- On Sep/2 Finex BTC margin shorts spiked, quite unusually, giving the impression it may have been one large market participant.
Sep 5, 2018 6 tweets 2 min read
This was/is meaningful. #bitcoin Some news are noise or FUD. Goldman ditching plans to open a trading desk is neither. It indicates lack of interest from Goldman's clients, which can be extrapolated to others' in the institutional space. It also reduces odds of a US based ETN, which requires a trading desk.
Sep 4, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
Please, do trade with leverage on Bitmex without stop losses, other traders will thank you.

Retail margin traders are a blessing. Prompted by the musings of a relatively large twitter account self-labeled as a "bitMEX margin trader". You heard the man, use no stop losses, only alarms, to avoid getting stopped out.
Sep 4, 2018 5 tweets 1 min read
Bitfinex margin shorts popped. Price dropped on the pop, yet held. Both margin shorts & longs stable since the pop. Meaningful, if it is a directional player (big IF). If so, then whoever put those shorts is at risk in the event of an upwards breakout. Stops add fuel to the fire. Assuming once again this represents mostly one large directional market participant (which is feasible), this represents a double edged sword, as such market participant could also be sitting on cash to defend the area and dump on the market.