Alex Krüger Profile picture
Aug 15, 2018 12 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Gorgeous crypto reversal underway, particularly so on $ETH given how undersold it was, although the setup was cleaner on $BTC. Ideal long entries in my book:
- ETH: 1840-1920 EST $264-$270
- BTC: 1500-1930 EST $6100-$6170
Setup described as a strong drop that slowly rolls over, upwards. Ideal longs come in the 61.8%-70% reversal, ideally on a 2nd push towards a prior failed attempt to break higher - looking to trade the breakout of the prior failed attempt. Don't want to be dogmatic about the %s.
This may sound like a lot of work, requiring too much chart watching. But it is not so, as these kind of reversals do not happen that often.
Zero need to catch the bottom and suffer like a self-aware animal awaiting the slaughterhouse. That said, catching bottoms is definitively more rewarding when it works - obviously.
Last night's $ETH evisceration is something I would have normally bought as a falling knife trade IF $BTC were in freefall as well and had breaken support long ago, which didn't happen, as 5750/5850 held.
Some may be upset for not buying the bottom, thinking "I had so many hours, why didn't I buy and fill my bags?" That's pointless hindsight thinking. Should be simple to realize $BTC surprisingly held the bottom, and it breaking down would have unleashed hell.
I know of successful traders that consistently trade this setup using the MACD histogram going above zero as their trigger. It may make things easier for some, by providing a clear trigger point.
Adding color on the short side. Great short last night on the 2015 EST breakout, IMO, if a trader takes that short and for whatever reason doesn't take profit, trader must exit no later than breakeven. Shorting $275-280 and letting it go in the red is unforgivable.
Didn't take profit and gave a big winner back? Limits too far off and then got sloppy? (it happens) One should either manually or automatically move stops to breakeven after trade is X% in the money, to save oneself from a bad loss.
Letting a big winner turn into a loser can cause long-lasting psychological damage and wreak havoc with future trades.
All of this greatly depends on position size, which depends on stop loss, which depends on time frame i.e. if trading a small position using wide stops on the daily chart, $15-30 on ETH and $200-400 on BTC represent noise. One can then ignore intraday charts.
If the latter is not clear feel free to shoot me a DM.


• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Alex Krüger

Alex Krüger Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @krugermacro

Oct 4, 2018
Lot's of talk about Tether & Bitfinex, some even mentioning "exit scam". Crypto pairs in Bitfinex are trading at 0.75%-1% premium over spot exchanges. However, same can be observed in Tether exchanges. e.g. prices in Binance same as in Bitfinex =>this is not a Bitfinex issue.
A couple of red flags aside, I don't think there is reason to be particularly concerned. Selling of Tether for other asset-backed stable coins is to be expected.
Now anyone operating in an exchange exposed to Tether or one that performs no KYC is always exposed to some sort of tail risk. Only way around that is moving to crypto-fiat regulated exchanges, which have higher operational costs (KYC is expensive) and charge higher trading fees.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
Narrative: "My top priority has always been our social mission of connecting people and bringing the world together" ~ Zuck.

Reality: "People ... I don't know why. They "trust me". Dumb fucks." ~ Zuck.

His top priority is using people to sell targeted ads. #deletefacebook
It all started with Facebook's Timeline, an intrusive interface designed to push ads. Other things followed: recording phone logs, hacks, 3rd party apps snooping, discriminating users, nudging for users to provide more and more and more information, etc.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2, 2018
Brazil stocks +5% today in USD terms, strictly on political news. Chart locks great for longs. 1st round Presidential elections Oct/7. The two most voted candidates go onto a 2nd round on Oct/28.
Chart aside, what one trades is the elections: Bolsonaro (right-wing populist wildcard, similar to Trump, initially despised by markets, now seen positively as much better than the alternative) vs. Haddad (left-wing candidate, Lula's party).…
Two things behind today's rally.

- new info on the corruption scandal involving Haddad's party:…?

- more importantly: Ibope polls showing a sharp improvement in Bolsonaro's odds.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1/ Key factors for global markets

- Fed tightening: rising rates, balance sheet reduction, USD funding squeeze. Fed expects three more hikes in 2019.
- US economy overheating. Fiscal cuts in action, US profit margins at all time highs, unemployment at lowest level since 2000.
- US treasury curve inverting, pointing towards incoming recession.
- Oil spiking in response to demand shocks and low spare capacity could lead to increased inflation and tightening.
- Ballooned public and corporate debt levels.
- Trade wars: US tariffs would result in China's GDP dropping 75bps. Worldwide spillover effects.
- To compensate, China looking to reflate domestic economy via spending & monetary easing.
- EM at risk from Fed tightening and strong USD; are these already priced in?
Read 5 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
Chart shares one of my signals which I call the Volume Thrust. It's a high volume/volatility breakouts signal. Can be applied to multiple time frames i.e. five minute charts or daily charts. Sharing it to illustrate price action concepts.
Understanding this is useful for investors as well who want to enter positions only with the trend. It's also helpful to any trader who is fearful of buying a top. Buying a top or selling a bottom sometimes represents good decision making.
First, when there is a high volume push in one direction, a trader generally wants to go in the direction of the push. Second, when push fails and price reverses in full beyond origin point, that's a trap, trader wants to reverse position (or at least exit prior position if any).
Read 11 tweets
Sep 27, 2018
This could happen to crypto exchanges offering trading of security tokens and security token derivatives. If $XRP were to be defined as a security it would jeopardize exchanges such as Bitmex. Binance is at risk regardless. Lots of security tokens there.
Sounds familiar?

Just yesterday I was reading about how 1broker had started offering CFDs on cannabis stocks, offering traders to open an account with an email address, fund it with bitcoin, and hit it with 50x leverage.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!