Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Aug 22, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This illustrates a recurrent theme of late: technical/legal capacity doesn't match with political incentives or imperatives

1/
Other examples abound, including:

- extension of Art.50
- a failed Meaningful Vote leading to renegotiation of WA
- using ECJ as arbiter in post-membership disputes

2/
In all cases, there's nothing of great technical difficulty, but the politics is too fraught or poisonous to allow it to occur

3/
Indeed, this mis-match has arguably been the central theme of the entire process.

Many paths were technically open, but political choices closed down many of them

4/
The archetype is this has been the UK gvt's red lines, which at a stroke closed down most of the possible resolutions, and which has continued to impede prompt outcomes

5/
But as that case also demonstrates, politics and technicalities do interact, and the latter do shape the former. Witness how those red lines have been finessed/bashed about to re-open options

6/
This is not simply a point of analysis, but also an important consideration for activists of all kinds: owning the political narrative matters more (certainly in short-run) than having technical means in place

7/
Clearly, in the UK, Leavers have been able to draw on the narrative of winning #EUref to advance their programme.

Those who wish to remain lost out as a result, especially with their long focus on overturning that vote

8/
The shift we've seen of late, to opening up a new debate about legitimising the WA through a new vote, is partly a recognition that this would allow for reframing the previous narrative, taking the Leavers' phrases and turning them against them

9/
Only if that is successful will the Q of technical capacity become more fully relevant

/end

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More from @Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
So, what to make of today?

1/
Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/
Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/
Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line



3/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting
By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

Read 8 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
Read 11 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/
Read 15 tweets

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