- extension of Art.50
- a failed Meaningful Vote leading to renegotiation of WA
- using ECJ as arbiter in post-membership disputes
2/
In all cases, there's nothing of great technical difficulty, but the politics is too fraught or poisonous to allow it to occur
3/
Indeed, this mis-match has arguably been the central theme of the entire process.
Many paths were technically open, but political choices closed down many of them
4/
The archetype is this has been the UK gvt's red lines, which at a stroke closed down most of the possible resolutions, and which has continued to impede prompt outcomes
5/
But as that case also demonstrates, politics and technicalities do interact, and the latter do shape the former. Witness how those red lines have been finessed/bashed about to re-open options
6/
This is not simply a point of analysis, but also an important consideration for activists of all kinds: owning the political narrative matters more (certainly in short-run) than having technical means in place
7/
Clearly, in the UK, Leavers have been able to draw on the narrative of winning #EUref to advance their programme.
Those who wish to remain lost out as a result, especially with their long focus on overturning that vote
8/
The shift we've seen of late, to opening up a new debate about legitimising the WA through a new vote, is partly a recognition that this would allow for reframing the previous narrative, taking the Leavers' phrases and turning them against them
9/
Only if that is successful will the Q of technical capacity become more fully relevant
/end
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Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:
1/
Let's start with the EU side
Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on
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The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever
2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)
3/