Thread by @Usherwood

I repost this, mainly because the situation has moved rather a lot since:

1/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/972055486810947585

At the time (March), things looked a lot more open, so the various scenarios were quite balanced in their likelihood

2/

However, the intervening delays and disagreements have now shifted that balance quite markedly

3/

Certainly, we are no longer on the 'glidepath' to a deal in October: no one's seriously talking about that being possible now. Given the structure of negotiations, you would need major advances this week or next for that to happen

4/

That also knocks out scenario 2 of 'teething difficulties', since it's unclear that much movement at all will occur prior to Oct #EUCO

5/

At the same time, my presentation of scenario 3 as 'major problems' feels a bit overstated at this point. Oct #EUCO is unlikely to frame that blockage as quite such a critical issue, mainly because it's now been a long time coming

6/

However, the comments on that and the 'collapse' scenario still stand.

Dec remains last point for getting a deal together and there's no political will on either side to give more time to Art.50

7/

Thus the ironic effect might be to see less dramatic language than expected, even as risks of a 'no-deal' continue to climb rapidly.

8/

In political terms, that might not be helpful in ramping up pressure to get to a deal/to get constituents to approve it

9/

Take-homes:
- things do change, so we need to keep on revisiting our assumptions
- expect much politicking around Oct #EUCO in service of assorted agendas

/end