Matthew Chapman Profile picture
Aug 22, 2018 3 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
WOW. #INSen poll: Donnelly (D-Inc) 51, Braun (R) 39

While we should be cautious of drawing conclusions from one poll, this cuts against the conventional wisdom that Donnelly is one of the more threatened D incumbents.…
We should not take our eyes off the ball in Indiana: remember, Evan Bayh led most of the polls around this time in 2016, too.

But it's worth noting, that was a really different race. An open seat in a presidential year vs a D incumbent in a midterm with an unpopular R president.
Here's another note. *If* this poll is accurate, and other polls confirm IN is shifting into the Lean D column, that means control of the Senate is now a coin toss.

That would mean each party is only defending 3 true toss-up seats. FL, MO and ND for Dems; AZ, NV and TN for GOP.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Matthew Chapman

Matthew Chapman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @fawfulfan

Oct 5, 2018
One of the most infuriating things about the whole Dr. Ford affair is that the media has completely let Republicans get away with their lie, over and over again, that there is "no corroborating evidence" to support her allegation.
Republicans have basically moved the goalposts to define "corroborating evidence" as just eyewitnesses, physical evidence, and that's it.

Actually, corroborating evidence is *anything* that supports a person's account.
The therapist notes from Dr. Ford's session in 2012 are corroborating evidence for her story. As is the July 1st entry on Kavanaugh's calendar. As would be Mark Judge's employment records at Safeway.

None of these things *prove* her story, but they do *corroborate* it.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 18, 2018
What pisses me off about arguments like this is not just the minimization of rape. It's the entire premise that Kavanaugh has some fundamental right to be on the Supreme Court because he won the lottery of birth and rose through politics through his connections and family wealth.
I mean, when @bariweiss laments that something he did when he was 17 could take away his future, what's being taken from him is something 99.9999999% of Americans will never have, a great many of whom would be just as smart as he is if they had the educational opportunity.
This is part of a broader idea in our culture that the powerful have a right to be powerful.

That's the opposite of how it should be. We should *constantly* question what right the powerful have to their power. Especially those who earn it from privilege.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 5, 2018
This is certainly a moral flaw in Kavanaugh, but it's also a deeper flaw in our entire standard for who should be appointed to federal courts.

We overvalue prestigiousness of credentials and undervalue real world experience.
I'd happily accept more judges on the federal bench whose law degrees aren't Ivy League and who didn't clerk for the existing Washington judges, but who, say, ran a nonprofit for battered women, or served as a public defender in a rural place a million miles from anywhere.
I want more federal judges who have had to deal with true hardship and problems in their lives, or at the very least, who have spent a good portion of their careers helping those who do.

People who have been on the end of the failures of our social, political, and legal systems.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 4, 2018
Nice fake history.

Actually, public universities were first created in the U.S. in the early 1800s, and many state run land-grant schools established under the Morrill Acts of 1862 and 1890 initially offered free tuition.

Many still did in the 1930s.…
In fact, @MorlockP, tuition costs began exploding in the 1970s for two reasons: state governments started slashing taxes that previously went toward funding public universities, and the federal government started creating privately-run middlemen to handle lending and collections.
There were other reasons as well: the economy started phasing out low-skilled factory jobs, causing an explosion in the number of people who need a college degree, and the rise of the for-profit sector like ITT and Corinthian that investigators revealed as billion-dollar scams.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 31, 2018
The most stunning part of this is not that @GlennKesslerWP considers a black kid playing with a toy "armed," although that's certainly bad enough.

It's that he doesn't even seem to get what makes shootings of unarmed black children by police a social problem in the first place.
Kessler seems to think if the rate of unarmed black kids being shot by police is not high enough that it can be expressed per 100,000 people, it can't possibly be a "frightening level" as @BetoORourke said.

He misses the point. Beto wasn't talking about a quantitative hazard.
By @GlennKesslerWP's standard, lynching was never occurring at a "frightening level" either. "Only" 4,000 people were lynched in the South between 1877 and 1950.

The point of terrorist acts like lynching isn't the body count. The point is that it makes everyone else obey.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 20, 2018
Which is basically what liberals are complaining about too.

@jack is more concerned with "showing that we are not adding our own bias" than really applying the rules consistently, because so many right wing extremists are on his platform that real enforcement would look biased.
Here's the problem.

We have reached a point where enforcing Twitter's rules as written is incompatible with Twitter execs' desire to insulate their company from complaints from conservatives.

Because conservatives are just plain more likely to abuse the rules than liberals.
If Twitter rules require suspending accounts that direct abusive language against a particular group, and prominent conservative Twitter accounts are retweeting literal Nazi content, Twitter can't have it both ways.

Either they throw out the rules or they piss off conservatives.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!