Eric Holthaus Profile picture
Aug 23, 2018 10 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Here's a quick look at what the latest weather models show for #HurricaneLane.

tl;dr: It's not looking good, but there's still a lot of moving parts.

Follow @NWSHonolulu for official updates. Other great sources of official info:……
Big picture: It looks more and more likely that #HurricaneLane will stall very near Maui for ~24 hours or so. That means ~48 hours of catastrophic heavy rain. It's very clear that this is shaping up to be a near-worst case flooding scenario.
So far, the @nws is doing an excellent job predicting #HurricaneLane. The hurricane has been moving pretty much right down the center of the forecast cone for the past day or two.

But the most difficult part of the forecast is the next 48 hours.
There's good news and bad news.

First, the good news: The last three runs of the Euro model, historically the most accurate for big-picture hurricane forecasting, has #HurricaneLane staying well offshore.
The bad news: Almost every other weather model has #HurricaneLane moving very near or over the islands. Maui seems most at risk.

Here is the last 6 forecasts of the GFS:
For the past few days, the GFS has been consistently too far eastward, so lets hope that trend continues. But the Euro has also been consistently too far westward -- and it's an outlier right now.
For some clarification, we can look at the high-resolution hurricane-specific models. These are also pretty accurate, historically.

The HMON (L) and HWRF (R) both show #HurricaneLane making a very close brush with Maui and Oahu. This is not a good sign.
To be conservative (hope for the best, prepare for the worst), folks on Maui and Oahu should be preparing for a direct hit from #HurricaneLane.

Hurricane force gusts (75mph+), rainfall of 24-36 inches. Virtually every river and stream would flood -- a historic flooding disaster.
Right now, I'd give that scenario a 50/50 chance of happening.

GFS has about a 60-80% chance of landfall right now in Maui and Oahu. And remember this is probably a bit of an overestimate. But it's worth planning for.

[End thread]

The just-in midday Euro has shifted eastward more in line with the GFS, which increases further the odds that #HurricaneLane will have a devastating effect on Hawaii.

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More from @EricHolthaus

Oct 9, 2018
The day of the last big IPCC report—September 27, 2013—I gave up flying for good.

Today, I'm committing to courage.

The IPCC says we need to imagine and build an entirely different society between now and 2030, so I'm committing to my own personal 10-year plan to do just that.
That's a weird, nebulous goal -- but the task before us is weird and nebulous in part because it's difficult to imagine the world cooperating for something greater. We need images of that future. I'm going to help tell that story.

We've done it before. It's time to do it again.
Today's report is 1000 pages long, but there’s really just one main point to take away: Everyone and every idea is now a necessary part of the solution. We are all in this together.

I’ve said that before, sure, but it feels visceral now, in the hours since this report’s release.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
The world's top climate scientists are about to announce that—without radical coordinated action—the world has locked in warming of at least 1.5°C.

Heroic efforts are now necessary to save the world from catastrophic climate change.
Be a hero.
Watch live:
IPCC: Limiting climate change to below 1.5°C would require "unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society."
(Less than 400 people worldwide are watching this lifestream right now.)
Read 22 tweets
Sep 11, 2018
NHC Update, 11am:

Hurricane #Florence continues on track for a history-making landfall in North Carolina -- with potential simultaneous new all-time East Coast records for wind, rainfall, and storm surge.

A word on each of those three main threats:

The main threat to life from Hurricane #Florence is storm surge—the reason for the mandatory coastal evacuations.

Historically, storm surge accounts for half of all hurricane deaths.

#Florence could bring 10-20 feet of storm surge, among the highest ever on the East Coast.

The current East Coast storm surge record is 18ft, set by Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) -- both hit the Carolinas.

The @UNC is also helping maintain a real-time prediction of #Florence's storm surge here: Follow @NHC_Surge, too.…
Read 10 tweets
Sep 10, 2018
OK you guys, my intention is not to scare anyone with this message.

But Hurricane #Florence—the storm bound for North Carolina—is going to be about the size of North Carolina when it arrives.

This is what it will look like, according to the latest high-res model prediction:
And it will likely arrive as a Category 4 -- and potentially become the strongest East Coast hurricane landfall in recorded history, with sustained winds of >140mph.

Here's what that will do:
"Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."
*After* that, the latest weather models predict #Florence will stall out for four days -- similar to what happened to Hurricane Harvey last year in Texas.

Much of North Carolina & Virginia could be dealing with their worst flood in history.

Again, this is the current forecast.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 9, 2018
Hurricane #Florence Update, 4pm:

Mid-day models continue to be unanimous: Florence is on track to landfall in the Carolinas on Thursday, likely as a Cat 4.

Longer-range models are still hinting at Florence stalling for 3+ days—creating a potentially catastrophic flood in NC/VA.
Where exactly #Florence makes landfall (and how far inland it goes after landfall) will determine the area most at risk of heavy rain and extreme inland flooding.

We're talking a multi-state region—potentially as far north as West Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania.
Hurricanes rotate counter-clockwise, so the northern edge of the storm is always rainier -- with air supplied straight from the ocean.

That's why Virginia is at a much greater risk of flooding right now than South Carolina.

Keep watch this storm—even if you're not in the cone.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 27, 2018
Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose significantly in 2017—after a 3yr plateau that had many people openly wondering if we were turning a corner, peaking emissions more quickly than anyone thought plausible.

That, obviously, didn't happen.

We have our work cut out for us.
The world remains far off course to meet the Paris climate goals of 2°C warming—and striving to reach a rise of just 1.5°C

Doing so would require an immediate peak (and 1/3 global cut) by 2030.

Current policies and pledges will keep emissions rising until 2030 and beyond.
This isn't just a "oh, it would be nice to meet these goals"

Nope, climate change is a truly existential problem -- as in we won't have food, water, shelter for billions of people by the end of the century on the current course.
Read 5 tweets

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