The day of the last big IPCC report—September 27, 2013—I gave up flying for good.

Today, I'm committing to courage.

The IPCC says we need to imagine and build an entirely different society between now and 2030, so I'm committing to my own personal 10-year plan to do just that. That's a weird, nebulous goal -- but the task before us is weird and nebulous in part because it's difficult to imagine the world cooperating for something greater. We need images of that future. I'm going to help tell that story.

We've done it before. It's time to do it again.

The world's top climate scientists are about to announce that—without radical coordinated action—the world has locked in warming of at least 1.5°C.

Heroic efforts are now necessary to save the world from catastrophic climate change.
Be a hero.
Watch live: IPCC: Limiting climate change to below 1.5°C would require "unprecedented transitions in all aspects of society."

NHC Update, 11am:

Hurricane #Florence continues on track for a history-making landfall in North Carolina -- with potential simultaneous new all-time East Coast records for wind, rainfall, and storm surge.

A word on each of those three main threats:

/1
grist.org/article/north-… The main threat to life from Hurricane #Florence is storm surge—the reason for the mandatory coastal evacuations.

Historically, storm surge accounts for half of all hurricane deaths.

#Florence could bring 10-20 feet of storm surge, among the highest ever on the East Coast.

/2

OK you guys, my intention is not to scare anyone with this message.

But Hurricane #Florence—the storm bound for North Carolina—is going to be about the size of North Carolina when it arrives.

This is what it will look like, according to the latest high-res model prediction: And it will likely arrive as a Category 4 -- and potentially become the strongest East Coast hurricane landfall in recorded history, with sustained winds of >140mph.

Here's what that will do:
"Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."
nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Hurricane #Florence Update, 4pm:

Mid-day models continue to be unanimous: Florence is on track to landfall in the Carolinas on Thursday, likely as a Cat 4.

Longer-range models are still hinting at Florence stalling for 3+ days—creating a potentially catastrophic flood in NC/VA. Where exactly #Florence makes landfall (and how far inland it goes after landfall) will determine the area most at risk of heavy rain and extreme inland flooding.

We're talking a multi-state region—potentially as far north as West Virginia, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania.

Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose significantly in 2017—after a 3yr plateau that had many people openly wondering if we were turning a corner, peaking emissions more quickly than anyone thought plausible.

That, obviously, didn't happen.

We have our work cut out for us.

https://twitter.com/IEA/status/1033655353542631424

The world remains far off course to meet the Paris climate goals of 2°C warming—and striving to reach a rise of just 1.5°C

Doing so would require an immediate peak (and 1/3 global cut) by 2030.

Current policies and pledges will keep emissions rising until 2030 and beyond.

Here's a quick look at what the latest weather models show for #HurricaneLane.

tl;dr: It's not looking good, but there's still a lot of moving parts.

Follow @NWSHonolulu for official updates. Other great sources of official info:
prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/TCV.…
prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/HLS.… Big picture: It looks more and more likely that #HurricaneLane will stall very near Maui for ~24 hours or so. That means ~48 hours of catastrophic heavy rain. It's very clear that this is shaping up to be a near-worst case flooding scenario.

“My generation, the millennials, will never know a time when climate change wasn’t a grave threat.”

Writing this @grist cover story quite literally changed my life. It marks a new phase of my worldview. Let me explain.
grist.org/article/courag… We have left the era where we could have largely prevented climate change, and — for all intents and purposes — have locked in a minimum of 1.5°C, the redline value that would flood small islands and render the planet deeply different for every living thing.

That…is a big deal.

This weekend, Glacier National Park recorded the hottest temperature in its history: 100°F

Now, it's on fire and being partially evacuated.

Glacier -- National -- Park

https://twitter.com/jfranz88/status/1028870393593909249

more on Saturday's 100°F all-time record high temperature at Glacier NP, from @NWSMissoula:

https://twitter.com/NWSMissoula/status/1028469187012907011

A lot has changed in the past 100+ years of British heatwaves. Check out the difference between Summer 1911 and Summer 2018 globally.

If the UK is 🔥, the rest of the planet is 🔥🔥🔥

grist.org/article/the-u-… <<Each of these heatwaves were of similar intensity in the UK, with peak temperature hotter than 95°F/35°C>>

In Greece, today, people are jumping into the ocean to escape rapidly advancing wildfires.

So far, this is Greece's hottest year on record.

Climate change makes wildfires worse.
Climate change makes wildfires worse.
Climate change makes wildfires worse.
nytimes.com/2018/07/24/wor… This is Greece's hottest year on record.

It's also the hottest year on record for:
Turkey
Iraq
Pakistan
Egypt
Bulgaria
Georgia
Israel
New Zealand

Globally, 2018 will likely be the 4th warmest year in history... next to 2015, 2016, and 2017.

ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/20…

THIRTY YEARS AGO TODAY: NASA's James Hansen testified to Congress that the era of global warming had begun. 🚨

If climate change was an urgent problem in 1988, it’s now an emergency. 🚨🚨🚨

My take on 1988, 2018, and 2048—with the help of 10 scientists:
grist.org/article/james-… 1) Hansen's statements to Congress in June 1988 rallied national and global momentum on climate like little we could imagine a scientist's speech doing today.

In the midst of a presidential campaign, Bush 43 said he'd fight the "greenhouse effect" with the "White House effect"

April’s monthly average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration breached 410 parts per million.

The last time that happened, humans didn’t exist.
grist.org/article/humans… Not only are carbon dioxide levels rising each year, they are accelerating. Carbon dioxide is climbing at twice the pace it was 50 years ago. Even the increases are increasing.

I’m not sure how much more clearly we can say this:
Everything we’re doing, if it doesn’t involve eliminating fossil fuel use immediately, is actively making the climate problem worse.
There is no time left for incremental action. It is literally do or die time. Of course, even as I say this, I feel like I’m screaming into a fucking void.

All good people of Earth: What will it take? How far will you go, today, this year, to keep life as we know it on our planet?

So,
3.5M Americans are enduring one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history & the President is acting like a fussy 6 year old. What's happening in Puerto Rico is just as much a product of racial injustice as it is the aftermath of a weather event.