Richard Reinholdt Profile picture
Aug 25, 2018 10 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Yes - really disappointing piece by the usually-solid @hknightsf . She immediately dismisses $220M of homeless spending - *poof*. It's just not a well-founded analysis.
OK let's run thru the #s quickly. Again, I'm a big fan of @hknightsf who usually gives solid takes based on common sense. Which makes the fast+loose stats in her homeless piece so weird.... @annkillion @EsmeAlaki @peterhartlaub @cjane87 @pims @gazooly12 @LondonbreedAnn @Sharkyl
1/When authors are going to play fast and loose, the funny biz is usually front-loaded. So look carefully @ the start of a piece. Right away @hknightsf deletes $55M of $300M homeless spending by declaring she's only covering SF Homeless Dept spending ($250M) *poof* byebye $55M
2/In the next breath we learn that Homeless Dept is getting $35M bump next year. Makes sense that overall $ gets similar 14% bump so $305M becomes $347M this yr. Relevant b/c the column ends with call to double $305M spending via tax on ballot. It's going up regardless.
3/Then we get the revelation that 2/3 of spending is on *formerly* homeless or people *close* to homeless. Valid + useful point. We don't get # for these but let's say it's 100% of counted street homeless (7500.)
4/That draws down our $305M by $201M - a big #. We're left with $104M. Then more flim-flammery: "take away 11% for administrative costs and 1 time capital expenditures." No we jolly will not wave away another $33M.
5/Then there's a bit about the 7500 homeless not being the *same* homeless. Also, maybe it's an undercount. OK, fine, use the 12000 per night figure from homeless Dept guy, ignoring the silly "not the same people" line.
6/Where we get to at the end of a fairer number-crunching is $104M ÷ 12000 homeless = $8700 per homeless person. It ain't $40K true but it's also not the silly $3800 the article alleges. And remember that figure has already increased to closer to $10K/person this year.
7/Regardless of what side you've chosen in the Govt spending/homeless debate, hopefully this gives you a better understanding of what SF spends, and the big fail in @hknightsf''s piece. Will doubling the spending solve the problem? Color me skeptical. Other reform is needed.<END>
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