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Most recents (24)

New Q (31 May '20): Yesterday:
"POTUS action coming. Homeland Security _FBI_DOJ action coming. Investigations may lead to [D][F] 'support' targets.
Today POTUS confirms. Barr releases statement: Antifa = domestic terrorist org. Violent riots = insurgency
2. Dems used COIN manual to conduct insurgency vs US.

OUR turn:
Counterinsurgency may be defined as ‘comprehensive civilian and military efforts taken to simultaneously defeat and contain insurgency and address its root causes’.… Image
3. Statement from AG Barr on "Riots & Domestic Terrorism":

"Federal law enforcement actions will be directed at apprehending and charging the violent radical agitators who have hijacked peaceful protest and are engaged in violations of federal law."
Read 18 tweets
A lot of brouhaha in the #gunviolence world about this well-reported article showing that @CDCgov data on the number of NON-FATAL gun injuries is not accurate.…

I want to highlight a few things about this article.
1. First, kudos to the writers for highlighting an issue that all of us #gunviolence researchers bemoan: that there are NO GOOD SOURCES OF DATA on non-fatal gun injuries. As the article reports, even the CDC admits that its data on #gunviolence injuries are unreliable.
2. Please note that this issue is not unique to #gunviolence non-fatal injuries. It’s also observed for other types of injuries (like drownings).

It’s because of the way that the CDC is forced to collect non-fatal-injury data.
Read 19 tweets
#QCLock Theory

#Q's posts are monitored by both #Patriots & the #DeepState, so Q cannot telegraph every move. However, there's seems to be a clock in place, w/post numbers essentially acting as a countdown to 2400...midnight for the #cabal...w/a planned #RedOctober take down.
#RedOctober has clearly referenced a timeline where the coordinated arrests will occur this month, prior to the 2018 election.

"Red October" was first referenced on 11/20/17 as "The Hunt for Red October."
"Red October" has appeared 20 times in #Q's posts.

The reference to "The Hunt for Red October" was thought to have many meanings:
- Dealing w/a rogue nuclear sub (think Hawaii)
- Cyberespionage malware
- The plan culmination in the plan in October 2018 (#RedOctober)
Read 8 tweets
Some of what we’ve learned: The final ‘i’ dotted, the last ‘t’ crossed, that cemented the NAFTA deal Sunday night was Lighthizer, Freeland, and their teams working out a tariff threshold for Canadian autos so high that it basically is more symbolic than real. 1/
2/ You’ve perhaps seen the details about no-auto-tariffs-ever unless Canada exports 44% more cars to the US? Apparently it goes beyond that — adjustments include switching to the more generous (NAICS) import coding system. Basically, Canada isn’t hitting these #s anytime soon
3/ Our reporting shows two distinct narratives on How The Deal Went Down. They’re not necessarily mutually exclusive. But in the 🇺🇸 gov’t telling: “We scared Canada with tariffs, they gave us dairy, we got a deal.” In the 🇨🇦 govt telling: “Um, we offered the dairy thing weeks
Read 8 tweets
Thrilled to launch Long Reads Live tonight - a weekly riff w/ the smartest, most interesting people I can find about the ideas shaping crypto. For this kickoff episode, my co-host is @Travis_Kling and we'll be joined by @katherineykwu & @myles_snider /1
2/ With so much going on, you can expect a pretty fire show. I anticipate we'll get into:

+Market manipulation in all its beautiful forms
+Regulatory intrigue
+Bitmain IPO #s and interpretation
+Viral dynamics and crypto-native equity

and maybe...the Tether Target?
3/ Big thanks to all the podcasters, creators and curators out there who produce so much great thinking. Special ups to @theonevortex whose weekly The Bitcoin News Show was a definite inspiration.…
Read 3 tweets
1/ Long Reads Sunday #14. Daaaamn crypto, you really went for it. This was a week full of big announcements, market manipulation, regulatory enforcement, and a dash of various other assorted intrigue. Strap in, folks, it’s long reads time.
2/ One LRS note. Last week I announced that we’re taking this conversation off Twitter and into the realm of live. Well, it’s happening this MONDAY ~7pm EST. My first guest co-host will be @Travis_Kling and I couldn’t be more excited. More guests TBA soon.…
3/ Little has gotten our big-little industry yapping like the Bitmain IPO. For weeks, the convo has been intrigue w BCH, but with the IPO filing, @katherineykwu @MessariCrypto hulked out & summarized all the numbers.
Read 31 tweets
1/Thread - a snapshot of current polling in midst of #Kavanaugh fight. Using @FiveThirtyEight over last few weeks Trump's favs improved a bit, now 41.5/52.8 but the generic has worsened for the Rs, now stands at 49.6/40.9. Both these results suggest a very good year for the Ds.
2/My take is Rs now have a very low ceiling across the country. Of 45 top Gov/Senate/House battlegrounds w/recent polls Rs over 50% in only 4 or 5 (not incl TX Sen or AZ Gov); and have no lead outside margin of error in any Gov or Sen battleground.
3/Rs not leading in governor's races in FL, GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, IA and NV - all critical 2020 battlegrounds. Could end up winning some but GOP can't be happy here.
Read 9 tweets
Earlier this week, @CassSunstein beat the extremely well-beaten drum about academia's partisan imbalance. Suggesting it may be due to discrimination, he worries about the impact of it all on students and faculty research.

Is it true? Is he right to worry?…
Let's take these one at a time.

1) Is there an imbalance?

Absolutely. Surveying soc sci/humanities disciplinary orgs (n=1700), Klein & Stern (2005) put the D/R ratio at about 8:1. Moreover, panel data has all faculty to the left of their party's median.…
Not good, but there are three problems with this data: 1) It's just soc/humanities; 2) Evidence suggests disciplinary orgs skew left relative to rest of the academy; and 3) Membership in orgs skew toward elite/R1 institutions.
Read 20 tweets
1. In a few hours @fordnation will convene Legislature at 12:01 AM.

To rush a bill using the notwithstanding clause.

In the dead of night…
@fordnation @RodPhillips01 @MichaelParsa @Andrea_Khanjin @douglasdowney @ToddSmithPC @PrabSarkaria @sandhuamarjot1 @billwalkermpp @janemckennapc @KarahaliosPC 2. He claims this as an important policy matter.

It was not campaigned on.
It narrowly effects Toronto.
It has no real case for support.
Read 40 tweets
Here's the latest status report in the Ms. L case (family separation class action): As of 9/10, the govt had reunited 8 more kids with parents and discharged 24 kids (to sponsors, for instance)…
This week's report (left pic) organizes the numbers differently from last week's (right pic). The govt has characterized a large number of parents, in the US and outside of the US, as no longer part of the covered class, b/c the ACLU has confirmed they don't wish to be reunified
So basically, per this latest chart from the govt, there are 211 kids in ORR care who the govt is working to reunify with a parent or discharge to a sponsor, or
who the govt and the ACLU are still trying to figure out if they're eligible for reunification
Read 10 tweets
1. Re @RuleandRuin’s grumpy piece on the historiography of conservatism (…), @TomSugrue offers the full-throated defense of the discipline’s honor: . I have a more specific point, undeniably motivated by some “presentist” concerns.
2. Does the rise-of-the-right lit really “take the extreme right as representative of conservatism,” as Kabaservice charges? This work, first motivated by dissatisfaction w/ how postwar libs like Bell & Hofstadter pathologized the right, if anything went too far the other way.
3. It had a tendency to internalize too much of the movement’s own self-mythology, in which a Buckleyite mainstream decisively drew boundaries and kept the ship steering down the fusionist true path.
Read 18 tweets
1) the Republicans used to be called the "stupid party" and the DemoKKKrats the "evil" party.

2) Looking increasingly like Trump made the DemoKKKrats BOTH the evil and stupid party.

3) Their hysterical opposition to Kavanaugh shows they don't even have a sense of strategy
4) the time for the battle is Buzzi's replacement. And I just sense she's about to croak.

5) But by shooting their hysteria wad on a decent and moderate guy like Judge K is like Sam Houston reinforcing the Alamo. Good way to lose the whole army.
6) Likewise, the insane insistence that AZ and TX are "going blue" when the primary #s show just the opposite suggests that only insane people are running the DemoKKKrat party.
Read 3 tweets

Uncle Jr Giuliani: Trump legal team may try to block Mueller from releasing final report

Which speaks to #TeamTreason’s guilt does it not? 🙄

Imagine reading indictments noting ‘GOP Candidate1” within the text of the complaints, kinda makes my toes curl if so!

Wife of former NRA President tapped Butina in pursuit of jet fuel pay day.

📌In preparation for conflict countries stock pile jet fuel.

KS Supreme Court agrees Douglas County must summon grand jury to investigate KOBACH.

Obstruction of justice: Trump tweets

SY: “Repeatedly trying to pervert DOJ into a weapon to go after his adversaries, and now shamelessly complaining that DOJ should protect his political allies to maintain his majority in the midterms, is nothing short of an all out assault on the rule of law.”
Read 78 tweets
There has been a lot of attention in the law prof world recently to citation rankings, mostly b/c of @BrianLeiter's posting the latest Sisk numbers. I have two very small thoughts about what these numbers mean/don't mean. /1
1st, I think of citation rankings as mostly useful to learn of people in your field whose work may be worth checking out. It's not a ranking of quality, but just of mentions. Esp if you're new to the field, can help at the margins to see what ideas are being discussed. /2
2nd, it would be interesting, and maybe helpful, if the Sisk #s came with an additional # of how many of the scholar's papers are in the database. On the whole, more papers = more papers to cite = more citations. Depending on what you see rankings as for, citations/paper # /3
Read 5 tweets
1/ Capabilities. That’s the word of the day.

One thing that industry “experts” often miss when evaluating historical M&A or trying to predict M&A, is that the best acquirers often aren’t looking at the financials of the target first- they look at the capabilities of the target.
2/ Let’s talk about what that means, why it is important and why entrepreneurs, investors and strategic acquirers should care.
3/ First- what it means. Capabilities allow the target or acquirer to do something unique that matters. Talk to a new demographic, or same demo in a new way (brand capability), deliver unique value in the product (product cap.), distribute the prod in a new way (distro cap.) etc
Read 23 tweets
Yes - really disappointing piece by the usually-solid @hknightsf . She immediately dismisses $220M of homeless spending - *poof*. It's just not a well-founded analysis.
OK let's run thru the #s quickly. Again, I'm a big fan of @hknightsf who usually gives solid takes based on common sense. Which makes the fast+loose stats in her homeless piece so weird.... @annkillion @EsmeAlaki @peterhartlaub @cjane87 @pims @gazooly12 @LondonbreedAnn @Sharkyl
1/When authors are going to play fast and loose, the funny biz is usually front-loaded. So look carefully @ the start of a piece. Right away @hknightsf deletes $55M of $300M homeless spending by declaring she's only covering SF Homeless Dept spending ($250M) *poof* byebye $55M
Read 10 tweets
Thread: I hear constantly that Oklahoma's prison system is corrupt because of private prisons. Let's talk about why that is one tiny piece of the huge problem that is Oklahoma's criminal justice system. Not a lawyer, policy wonk, etc. This is some 101 stuff.
Oklahoma's PUBLIC state-owned and operated prisons have nearly 20k people in them. That is 113% of capacity. Where are those 13 percent? Glad you asked. Usually one of two places: county jails or temporary beds.
In county jails, there are no services. No mental health, no substance abuse, no job training. No counseling at all. Just meals. Temporary beds are shoved into common spaces. Sometimes it's the spaces where these classes are supposed to be held, so those classes disappear.
Read 15 tweets
Serious post. @coincidencexbt this one is for you bud.
FA for tech (Spoiler: Crypto is all startup tech companies)
1) When I was a young frog I had lots of experience in the tech sector for fortune 500 companies. Let me take you inside a major tech project.
2) It all starts with a business case. Basically somebody has a business problem that needs to be solved by tech. They have to provide a reasonable reason why the company should spend money on this project. This pitch is usually just a powerpoint showing the reason why?
3) The cost and the benefits/cost savings this project would bring to the company. If the project is big enough it goes to the board for approval. The board cares about the cost/benefit of it. Sometimes the benefit is that if they don't do this thing they will not be able to
Read 15 tweets
Clinton/Branson Elite Island Treasure Hunters?

Can you say "Cabal Central"?

What would #Q say?
--[[[[Hunters]]]]-- BECOME THE HUNTED-- ?????

Dig on em Anons!!

#QAnon #WWG1WGA #QArmy @POTUS…
This is gonna be GOOD!!!
"These People are Sick!! #Q
Read 27 tweets
Small thread on current crunch going on in China:
Mkt sees yuan deval as a result of trade frictions with China, but that's a slice of what's going on.

The real story here is commodity based collateral, primarily gold.
There is currently 1000 tons of $GLD pledged as collateral (likely a low ball estimate) in China, equivalent to $42bn or 352k futures contracts, that has been accumulated over the past few years.

This really hasn't mattered or been a tell until now.
Read 11 tweets
Some thoughts on this week's WaPo op-ed on welfare reform by @sanfordschram @rfording and @jbsoss . Per usual, let me stipulate that I think welfare reform was a success because it reduced poverty, which is the thing we all profess to care about. /1
There are 6 points the authors make. #1 is that caseload reduction is the wrong metric for success. I agree with that, and most conservative reformers would agree with that too. (I know most of the most prominent ones personally.) But... /2
The authors punt big-time on this when they say that a better metric would be what happened to earnings from employment. I'm not sure they want to go here, but at any rate, they don't. They leave this dangling as if we just don't know the answer. We do. /3
Read 35 tweets
Week 3 of Paul Manafort's trial kicks off at 1pm. Want to catch up on Week 2?
Rick Gates:…
Rick Gates II:…
Following the $:…
Judge v. prosecutors:…
Quid pro quo?:…
This a.m., prosecutors filed a brief arguing that even if the CEO of Federal Savings Bank had personal reasons for approving $16M in loans to Paul Manafort (as the govt has argued) that's not a defense to the charge that Manafort defrauded the bank…
And we're back at the US District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, where Paul Manafort's trial is set to resume at 1pm. Known as the "rocket docket," the courthouse has a statue out front that reads, "Justice Delayed Justice Denied" (note the animals...)
Read 18 tweets
Day 7: The cross examination of Rick Gates continues -- Manafort's lawyer estimated yesterday he'd need about an hour today. And then? Re-direct by prosecutors. And then? We don't know, the govt hasn't said who's after Gates. On all the news yesterday:…
Judge taking a short recess. Rick Gates finished his testimony. Manafort's lawyer Kevin Downing asked about an interview Gates did with the FBI in 2014 (re: Ukrainian govt money) — Gates said he told the FBI about the existence of Manafort biz offshore accounts
Gates also said during cross that when he discussed the FBI interview with Manafort, Manafort told him to be "open" and provide info requested. Later, govt asked Gates if they were under investigation at the time, and Gates said he didn't think so. Was the IRS there? No, he said
Read 32 tweets
Newsday --- August 6th, 2018 --- Monday

How did we get Trump?
Sarah Jeong.
New York Times.
Example #117

Democrats 100% believe best hill to die on right before the midterms is
"All White People Must Die."

Run with that kiddos.

@KurtSchlichter 👇…
Newsday --- August 6th, 2018 --- Monday

How did we get Trump?
Sarah Jeong.
New York Times.
Example #117

Democrats 100% believe best hill to die on right before the midterms is
"All White People Must Die."

Run with that kiddos.

@KurtSchlichter 👇…
Some of you need to cease the denial and accept
the harsh reality that the left hates you.

You can tell that leftists hate you
by the way that leftists openly and publicly tell you that they hate you.

@KurtSchlichter 👇…
Read 122 tweets

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