1) the Republicans used to be called the "stupid party" and the DemoKKKrats the "evil" party.

2) Looking increasingly like Trump made the DemoKKKrats BOTH the evil and stupid party.

3) Their hysterical opposition to Kavanaugh shows they don't even have a sense of strategy
4) the time for the battle is Buzzi's replacement. And I just sense she's about to croak.

5) But by shooting their hysteria wad on a decent and moderate guy like Judge K is like Sam Houston reinforcing the Alamo. Good way to lose the whole army.
6) Likewise, the insane insistence that AZ and TX are "going blue" when the primary #s show just the opposite suggests that only insane people are running the DemoKKKrat party.

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More from @LarrySchweikart

Oct 8, 2018
1) reuters.com/article/us-usa…

First the Hill/Cook, now this. Folks, they are aware they are losing or have already lost the House. The last big vote suppression push is on.
Yesterday, two NC polls basically put all the "at risk" NC seats out of reach.
Before that, TX and OH's vulnerable seats were pretty much off the board (Sessions is ahead but close).

NY now down to two vulnerable seats with the R leading in one. Both are red.
3) UNLIKE THE LIBS, I will tell you . . .

I.
Can.
Be.
Wrong.

But I'm not seeing a DemoKKKrat takeover of the House. At most I have them with 19 flips---but that is really stretching it and that's them running the table.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 6, 2018
Final thread, but very important data.

in 2016 "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" in a major, bellwether Ohio county assembled a one of a kind data set.

Ohio law throws anyone who doesn't vote in the previous election into the "unaffiliated" category.
1) In 2012, the "unaffiliated" voters fooled most of us because we thought they were "independents" and Minion was leading with indies by several points.

WRONG.

They were "lazy Ds" who had not voted in the primary because Zero was unopposed.
2) So in 2016, "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" tried to figure out exactly who these "U"s were---Ds or Rs. They looked through EVERY "U" household's voting pattern for the last 20 years and assigned them as Rs, Ds, or actual Is.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 6, 2018
Thread two, on political/data developments over the last week.

1) The Senate continues to look good. Obviously ND has been put away. But many of the other races are tight. Blackburn in TN opened up a lead, but people there till me it's still close.
2) I think Rick Scott in FL is polling worse than he is running, and believe he is probably 3-4 points up right now. On the other hand, Testicles in MT is over-polling, but is likely up one or two.

3) Renacci in OH continues to close. My guys think he is down 2 and gaining.
4) If I had to be concerned about one race it would be IN. Braun should have taken the lead by now. I hear he is a mediocre campaigner, and only now started ads. Still, he is in a red state with an anti-Kavanaugh senator. I still think he'll pull it out.
Read 11 tweets
Oct 6, 2018
1) First, the Kavanaugh situation. I warn you, this may be a different take than you've been hearing all afternoon and evening.
2) Amidst all the high-fives, fireworks, and general celebration let me first state the obvious:

Senator Collins was one courageous person to give that speech, and that vote, today. No question at all.

What she said was every bit as important as her "yes." vote.
3) But do not fall for all the humbug about "oh, this is how the senate ought to be," with a "measured review of facts and issues."

Baloney.

4) At any time in American history, with any issue, the House and Senate are about one thing: power. Who has it, and who wants it.
Read 17 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1) Let me sum up many things, much of which you know.

2) Yertle does not have the votes to confirm Judge K, contrary to what it looked like just 12 hours ago. Manchin is as reliable as the Italian Army.

3) So that leaves us with the three RINOs.
4) The painful truth is there is NO leverage at all against Flakey. I just spoke with a woman from his area here in AZ. Local SUPPORTERS are furious with him. These are the people who voted him in originally, both to the House and the Senate.
5) They can't hurt him, Yertle can't hurt him, and Trump really can't hurt him.

Now, realistically, if he EVER wants to work anywhere in the universe of Republican politics again, he has to vote for K. But he may have other plans, may want to go out as McTurd Jr.
Read 22 tweets
Sep 28, 2018
1) Ok, some realities.

First, Grassley was brilliant. He did NOT agree with Flakey's suggestion for a week's delay and FBI investigation. He simply called the vote.

2) The vote to favorably recommend Judge K out was 11-10, with Flakey voting for it---possibly thinking . . .
2) . . . Grassley had agreed to it. But he didn't.

3) Now the entire matter is in Yertle's hands and out of Grassley's hands.

4) Next up, tomorrow we will see the Ds begin to filibuster and stall, and Yertle will call for cloture.

5) There is a mandated delay betwen the
5) call for a cloture vote and the vote itself, which by Senate rules will happen MONDAY.

6) Here is where the rubber meets the road. If Flakey is serious about voting against K, he would vote no on cloture. But that doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Read 5 tweets

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