1) reuters.com/article/us-usa…

First the Hill/Cook, now this. Folks, they are aware they are losing or have already lost the House. The last big vote suppression push is on. Yesterday, two NC polls basically put all the "at risk" NC seats out of reach.
Before that, TX and OH's vulnerable seats were pretty much off the board (Sessions is ahead but close).

NY now down to two vulnerable seats with the R leading in one. Both are red.

Final thread, but very important data.

in 2016 "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" in a major, bellwether Ohio county assembled a one of a kind data set.

Ohio law throws anyone who doesn't vote in the previous election into the "unaffiliated" category. 1) In 2012, the "unaffiliated" voters fooled most of us because we thought they were "independents" and Minion was leading with indies by several points.

WRONG.

They were "lazy Ds" who had not voted in the primary because Zero was unopposed.

Thread two, on political/data developments over the last week.

1) The Senate continues to look good. Obviously ND has been put away. But many of the other races are tight. Blackburn in TN opened up a lead, but people there till me it's still close. 2) I think Rick Scott in FL is polling worse than he is running, and believe he is probably 3-4 points up right now. On the other hand, Testicles in MT is over-polling, but is likely up one or two.

3) Renacci in OH continues to close. My guys think he is down 2 and gaining.

1) First, the Kavanaugh situation. I warn you, this may be a different take than you've been hearing all afternoon and evening. 2) Amidst all the high-fives, fireworks, and general celebration let me first state the obvious:

Senator Collins was one courageous person to give that speech, and that vote, today. No question at all.

What she said was every bit as important as her "yes." vote.

1) Let me sum up many things, much of which you know.

2) Yertle does not have the votes to confirm Judge K, contrary to what it looked like just 12 hours ago. Manchin is as reliable as the Italian Army.

3) So that leaves us with the three RINOs. 4) The painful truth is there is NO leverage at all against Flakey. I just spoke with a woman from his area here in AZ. Local SUPPORTERS are furious with him. These are the people who voted him in originally, both to the House and the Senate.

1) Ok, some realities.

First, Grassley was brilliant. He did NOT agree with Flakey's suggestion for a week's delay and FBI investigation. He simply called the vote.

2) The vote to favorably recommend Judge K out was 11-10, with Flakey voting for it---possibly thinking . . . 2) . . . Grassley had agreed to it. But he didn't.

3) Now the entire matter is in Yertle's hands and out of Grassley's hands.

4) Next up, tomorrow we will see the Ds begin to filibuster and stall, and Yertle will call for cloture.

5) There is a mandated delay betwen the

1) I drew some gasps when speaking in New Mexico last week and I said (with 100% conviction), it is highly likely that @Kanyewest will be the leading Republican candidate in 2024.

I believe Kanye is already laying the groundwork and making appropriate alliances. 2) My reasoning is that he and Kim have been working closely with the White House on many issues. He is absolutely not dumb. While he had some mental health issues, I think he is overall a smart businessman.

He knows his brand and his audience.

“The Political Demise of the Democrat Party” by @DBCopa medium.com/@DBCopa/the-po…

1) Good article. A couple of points. We "briefly" saw Republicans struggle in 2017 in special state level and a few House elections. This was predictable for a party changing its very character. 2) That appears to have stabilized. But up til a few weeks ago, "stability" still could have resulted in traditional levels of R losses in an off year, meaning possibly the House.

I never bought into the "40-60 seats" baloney, but did think we could lose the House by 1-2 seats.

1) My latest estimates:

Senate, we gain 5-7 seats. I'm leaning toward OH as a win. Renacci has made up about a point a week on Brown, who now has abuse issues resurfacing.

Told of Renacci, "He just wins. In first race was against entrenched D opponent, beat him. "Then he was redistricted into another D district and clobbered that guy."

OH has a 300,000 net R registration advantage AFTER allocating "unaffiliated" voters based on previous 16 years' of voting.

In WI looks like with this K backlash Walker will "walk" Vukmir over the line

1) Trump's latest tweet about declassification suggests one of two alternatives.
First, "allies" in Congress think they in fact are gonna hold & that they don't want new issues "jammin' up da brothers" while they keep their seats. (Those issues being new revelations about the Deep State).

1) @rushlimbaugh thinks Ds wouldn't have brought out Balless Edsel without "someone in the bullpen."

I disagree.

2) I'm convinced this all started in July with the letter FinkStink received. At that time, there were many who were claiming Ds would win the Senate 3) Moreover, I don't think FinkStink ever thought they would "get" K on any charges. I don't think that was ever the goal.

Rather, I think the goal at THAT time was to delay, delay, delay until the election when (they thought) the Ds would win the Senate.

1) Here is my theory on what happened with FinkStink's stupid strategy on Judge K.

2) Remember she had the letter in July. Some people (never me) thought the DemoKKKrats could "retake the senate" back in July. No one thinks that now. 3) With that in mind, FinkStink's goal was to delay, delay, delay until Jan. 2019 when the new D senate would be sworn in.

4) I think much of this was in play a long time ago, and was a machine she couldn't shut off. She had to go through with it.

1) A few reminders: of the four "bad apples" left in the GOP senate--Flakey, Corkscrewed, Tom Collins, and MurCowSki---two are gone after January, almost certain to be replaced by more, er, stable people. 2) It would be self-mutilation and sheer idiocy to "punish" the GOP in the midterms for the actions of 2-4 neverTrumper dicknipples, especially when we are on the cusp of RENDERING THEM UTTERLY IMPOTENT FOREVER.

3) We stand to have 56-57 senate seats, perhaps even 60.

1) Earlier this week I told you that the DemoKKKRatFreakOut was about more than "appeasing the base." I said that I thought THEY had internal polls that were really, really bad.

2) This is being born out today. First we see Cuomo only +3 in NY 3) Then we see that Newsom is only 5 points up over Cox in CA, that Feinstein actually has a race on her hands.

4) Then there is news that Renacci---still with name recognition below 60%--is within four in OH.

5) Then news that one MN D House seat is a flip & Barr is safe in KY

1) While the release of a book like Woodchuck's can only be timed "so much," the Slimes op-ed was clearly a desperation move.

2) Ditto the hysterics by the DemoKKKrats in the Senate:

Clue Senate Ds: Kavanaugh will be confirmed with one to three DemoKKKrats voting for him. 3) But I think there is more than just the realization that they are utterly impotent to stop Judge K:

4) First, the DemoKKKrats are coming to a sober realization they will get creamed in the Senate, probably losing net another 4-6 seats, but possibly as many as 9-10.

1) Voter registration battleground states update.
*Many states (OH, TX, MN, WI, MI) do not register by party.
**These are from SecState websites, based on comparison with turnout in November 2016. The numbers are NET gains or losses, comparing changes in both parties. 2) AZ: Rs net 5,000 after big D voter drive.
Both parties have gained since 2016--one of the few states to show both parties gaining. Rs +25,000, Ds +20,000.
Republicans now have increased their voter registration lead to 153,000.

1) Term limits sound good, but a) they were ruled unconstitutional in the 1990s, and b) at the state level, they have proven to make virtually no change in the composition of the representation.

2) Whether it has a longer effect on corruption is yet to be determined.

https://twitter.com/DebiFranchio/status/1036256460684967936

3) On the other hand, we are seeing term limits for committee chairmen is seriously threatening the GOP's ability to hold the House. Most of those retiring (they say) are because they are committee chairmen term-limited out of their chairmanships. (I think "sex fund").

1) Many have commented on this but my two cents: Today the Arizona Republic not only had the front page coverage of McTurd's funeral, they had a 60 page MID SECTION special (this is after a SIMILAR special a few days ago), and even had McTurd in the "Arizona living" section 2) I certainly don't recall Barry Goldwater getting this treatment. But here is the difference: McTurd was exactly what a "Republican" is supposed to be in the eyes of the fake news/leftards: a "gracious" loser. Someone who will be the Washington Generals to their Globetrotters

1) Ok, no "sources," just logic and intuition:

2) Jon Kyl will replace McTurd. Gov. Ducey will make the announcement probably Tues.

3) Kyl is one of only two genuinely likely nominees (Jan Brewer being the other) who wouldn't alienate half of Arizona's voters. 4) He was rated by National Review (if you can believe them) as the "fourth most conservative senator" when he retired. He signed the taxpayer protection pledge, has been a vocal opponent of Planned Abortionhood, was sponsor of the Victims' bill of rights, & was strong on defense

1) Notes on the AZ Senate vacancy:

Governor Ducey will appoint a replacement. I cannot find any law or requirement setting a timetable for this. My guess is he would wait a respectful period of time, say, after the funeral, and name the successor.

2) We ARE on the clock. 3) There will likely be a vote in the Senate by as early as Sept. 10 for Judge Kavanaugh. I strongly doubt Ducey would leave the AZ seat unfilled for that vote.

4) If Yertle does not have the votes, he might work with Ducey to delay the vote until a replacement is there.

1) So let's recap: Trump's approval is

Gallup (Adults) 42%
Monmouth RV 43%
Rasmussen LV 48%

Meaning for election purposes Trump is very close to 50. 2) Latest FL poll shows Rick Scott increasing his lead over Nelson to 6. Trump at 52% in the state, DeSantis very strong. Majorly red wave there.

3) Seminole, which went for Trump at 1.5%, has Rs up 14 in early voting.