Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 28, 2018 9 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/Thread - a snapshot of current polling in midst of #Kavanaugh fight. Using @FiveThirtyEight over last few weeks Trump's favs improved a bit, now 41.5/52.8 but the generic has worsened for the Rs, now stands at 49.6/40.9. Both these results suggest a very good year for the Ds.
2/My take is Rs now have a very low ceiling across the country. Of 45 top Gov/Senate/House battlegrounds w/recent polls Rs over 50% in only 4 or 5 (not incl TX Sen or AZ Gov); and have no lead outside margin of error in any Gov or Sen battleground.
3/Rs not leading in governor's races in FL, GA, OH, PA, MI, WI, IA and NV - all critical 2020 battlegrounds. Could end up winning some but GOP can't be happy here.
4/GOP wipeout in MI and PA deserves far more attention. 4 GOP candidates for MI and PA Gov and Senate in the 30s. The 30s. Dems likely to win these races by 15-25 points in two of Trump's most important states.
5/Very strong showing of Dems in AZ, CA and TX continues a trend we first saw in 2016 - Trumpism is not playing well in this region of the country. Very good #s too for Ds in CO, NM, NV. Keep an eye on this.…
6/House. Using @CookPolitical ratings, Ds are on track to clearly win 203 seats, and need to win 15 of remaining 57 Toss Up/Lean Rs seats to flip the House. In @Nate_Cohn's latest polling of 30 of these districts, Ds have leads outside margin of error in 9 races, Rs in only 5.
7/In addition, Rs are at 45% or below in 9 additional races. So 9 clear leads, 9 other races Rs underperforming late in lean D year, only 5 clear leads. So let's be generous and say parties split those 57 districts. Dems end up w/about 230 seats.
8) But to be very clear - Democrats do not have this thing in the bag. It is leaning their way. But most competitive races for Gov/Sen/House are too close to call, so any late swing either way could be very meaningful. Why shakeout on this #Kavanaugh fiasco matters so much.
9/Correction. Using @CookPolitical ratings, Ds are on track to clearly win 205 seats, and need to win 13 of remaining 57 Toss Up/Lean Rs seats to flip the House. Right now Dems are on track, based on the analysis above, to get that done.

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More from @SimonWDC

Oct 4, 2018
1/Thread on Trump's reckless tariff and trade strategy. Below a smart take on where China - and the EU, Canada and Mexico - are targeting their retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump's aggressive attacks on their economies…
2/The effectiveness of these foreign efforts to cause pain in Trump county has shown up in polling. Tariffs are very unpopular everywhere, even in states like PA and WI.… Tariffs are among least popular initiatives of entire Trump Presidency.
3/Consider that Rs trail in all the competitive Sen/gov races in IA, WI, IN, OH, MI and PA. R candidates for Sen/gov in core Rustbelt states in MI and PA are n the 30s. Repudiation of Rs here huge story.…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 1, 2018
In other words most of this new NAFTA was stuff that was already agreed by the three countries prior to Trump becoming President with some minor cosmetic changes.
3/And reminder that Trump's trade policies had become deeply unpopular, and a drag on the GOP this fall. Even in the Midwest. The President needed a deal, badly.…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1/Mini-thread of what our high ranking "Judge" did over just last few months - obviated Natl Archives records process and suppressed 100,000s of docs/evidence of his own record; lied repeatedly abt his drinking and other matters; refused to call in FBI/lied about their role;
2/Our "judge" also worked w/RW groups to falsely frame another man for attacking Dr. Ford; told outrageous lies in his Fox News interview FROM THIS WEEK which he then recanted THE NEXT DAY: and then just went nuts in the Senate;
3/For me it is how our "Judge" has handled last few months which should be grounds enough for voting him down. He exposed himself as troubled, intemperate, partisan hack willing to run roughshod over democratic norms for his own advancement. Is opposite of judicial temperament.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 25, 2018
What remains mind blowing - GOP Senators do not see Kavanaugh’s participation in year long scheme which stole 5,000 private documents from 6 of their fellow Senators as disqualifying. It was a direct attack on their institution, and showed deep contempt for our democracy itself.
2/Mindblowing part 2 - that the Senate has not come to terms with a private citizen over her testimony this Thursday; and that they are proposing a wild, unprecedented idea of a sex crimes prosecutor interrogating her. Serious GOP, WTF. How can this not be settled by now?
3/Mindblowing 3 - this statement by #Kavanaugh's freshman roommate. Says he believes Kavanaugh was capable of sexual assault, was frequent blackout drunk, doesn't believe Ramirez is lying.… Imagine if this guy testified, under oath, about what he saw.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 20, 2018
1/Putting together my #Kavanaugh tweets into a thread. Serious issues have been raised. Need clearer answers. GOP now all party over country on everything. Not good for the nation.
2/The hacking into and stealing of 5,000 files from 6 Senators is reason alone to reject #Kavanaugh.
3/This story told by my old friend @PaulBegala the other night is a massive reveal about @Kavanaugh's partisan zeal, the very opposite of judicial temperament.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 18, 2018
1/Spent some time look at post Labor Day polling and have some thoughts, observations. A short thread.
2/National landscape appears to have shifted 2-4 points towards Dems since mid-August. @FiveThirtyEight has Trump's approval going fr -10 in mid August to -13/14 now. Looking across many polls feels like there was a structural shift, making pre late August polls unhelpful now.
3/Looking at Senate since mid August, Rs do not definitely lead in any of the major battlegrounds (AZ, FL, IN, MO, MS2, MT, ND, TN) w/possible exception of North Dakota. In Texas Cruz has been up by 4 pts or less in last 4 polls. And folks need to start paying attention to MS2.
Read 8 tweets

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