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Lucid Profile picture
@Lucid_TA
Aug 28, 2018 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Micro Update:

As mentioned in previous posts, I’m expecting further upside near term. Looking at a short squeeze to the mid $7300’s before either pullback or reversal. Expecting upside on #alts too. $BTC
I don’t have a specific target on $ETH, but if we reach $304 I'd consider opening a short scalp. Profit would be taken rather quickly, and stop loss would be moved to heightened base price. Will explain rationale + strategy later.
The chart pictured annotates a few things I'm looking at atm. 128 Day MA has been significant almost every time price has come into contact with it for years. Daily TD 9's have been useful in recent history. Confluence between price target and prior consolidation zone.

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More from @Lucid_TA

Lucid Profile picture
Sep 11, 2018
Market Update:

Though I've stated this in previous posts, my current expectation is for weak bullishness near term followed by a strong break down before we put in a significant low.
Though a wont go into detail here, a few simple reasons for bearish outlook are as follows:

- impulsiveness is with the bears, continuing to see weak responses from bulls
- macro descending triangle structure on $BTC
- #alts in steady downtrends, still calling for lower targets
Until we see high probability bottoming structure, trying to buy every dip is a net losing strategy. Don't fish for bottoms unless they're extremely obvious. Though potential reward is high, it's a bad play risk adjusted.
Read 13 tweets
Lucid Profile picture
Sep 9, 2018
I've been astounded by the amount of people trying to trade long these past few days.

Near term trend is down, mid term trend is down. The only real reason given is that "yearly support has held 4 times previously, therefore it will likely hold again".
It seems as though these individuals must be viewing that idea in isolation. In proper context, there is really nothing bullish about recent PA.

Even if one were determined to trade this long, it'd make a lot more sense to wait for a NT uptrend before entry at the very least.
Trying to catch falling knives when momentum is so strongly against your favour is not a winning strategy long term.

Though it has yet to close, the weekly candle has consumed 2 (almost 3) weeks of gains in around 4 days. Brutal.
Read 5 tweets
Lucid Profile picture
Sep 9, 2018
Micro continuation setups across the board, I was looking to trade VF structure on $ETH and $BTC (mostly ETH). Setup pictured is BTC, but the same structure was present on ETH.

Intended entry was on green line break. I was woken at 4am but missed it as it happened so fast.
Though it's unfortunate to have missed these last 2 significant spills (especially as I've been tracking this exact move for a long time), there are always more opportunities.
At the very least it's a great example of why this strategy is so successful. The idea is to catch maximum RR with min time on risk. Entries are aimed to occur just as the market moves violently so that positions move heavily in your favour shortly after the trade is opened.
Read 4 tweets
Lucid Profile picture
Sep 6, 2018
Potential volatility funnel structure to form on $BTC. Looking for consolidation around volume node/prior trading range. If applicable, early would be around the $6500 region.

I'll update further if the setup eventuates.
Micro update; $BTC currently around the upper bound of the zone in which I'm looking for consolidation. Though it doesn't have to occur, I think there's a decent chance we see a retracement here soon. Rest of the market would likely follow. Arrows were a bit off of course.
Further Update:

Fairly strong chance that this is the beginning of the last dead cat bounce before new lows. I doubt we'll see strong follow-through from the bulls, expecting a shallow grind, or tightening volatility pattern.
Read 4 tweets
Lucid Profile picture
Sep 5, 2018
Market Update:

Interesting scenes in the markets right now.

$BTC dropped $250 in the last hour and is currently bouncing off of support. There is confluence between a support trend line as well as a horizontal support zone.
Prior to the spill BTC went ultra low vol. Imperfect RW structure was also present. Typically the direction in which volatility returns is indicative of the direction in which momentum will persist for a period.
Things look a lot worse on $ETH. Downside continuation structure has triggered and confirmed (chart pictured is inverse). Unfortunately I was out at dinner when the micro squeeze (shown in white) broke so I missed proper entry. Looking to short on pullbacks or further setups.
Read 8 tweets
Lucid Profile picture
Sep 3, 2018
Looking at a potential long on $XRP.

Basic entry strategy is as pictured. Potential for early entry in the yellow zone with a fairly tight stop. This initial entry would be treated as a semi-scalp, I'd look to take profit early and move stop lose to new base price.
On the other hand, setup confirmation and proper entry comes if/when the bold green line is broken.
Part of the reason I'm looking at XRP particularly is due to the fact that it over-performed relative to the rest of the market off the lows, and has underperformed thereafter. If historical trends continue, then XRP is likely to outperform the market if we get another leg up.
Read 6 tweets

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