Market Update:

Though I've stated this in previous posts, my current expectation is for weak bullishness near term followed by a strong break down before we put in a significant low. Though a wont go into detail here, a few simple reasons for bearish outlook are as follows:

- impulsiveness is with the bears, continuing to see weak responses from bulls
- macro descending triangle structure on $BTC
- #alts in steady downtrends, still calling for lower targets

I've been astounded by the amount of people trying to trade long these past few days.

Near term trend is down, mid term trend is down. The only real reason given is that "yearly support has held 4 times previously, therefore it will likely hold again". It seems as though these individuals must be viewing that idea in isolation. In proper context, there is really nothing bullish about recent PA.

Even if one were determined to trade this long, it'd make a lot more sense to wait for a NT uptrend before entry at the very least.

Micro continuation setups across the board, I was looking to trade VF structure on $ETH and $BTC (mostly ETH). Setup pictured is BTC, but the same structure was present on ETH.

Intended entry was on green line break. I was woken at 4am but missed it as it happened so fast. Though it's unfortunate to have missed these last 2 significant spills (especially as I've been tracking this exact move for a long time), there are always more opportunities.

Potential volatility funnel structure to form on $BTC. Looking for consolidation around volume node/prior trading range. If applicable, early would be around the $6500 region.

I'll update further if the setup eventuates. Micro update; $BTC currently around the upper bound of the zone in which I'm looking for consolidation. Though it doesn't have to occur, I think there's a decent chance we see a retracement here soon. Rest of the market would likely follow. Arrows were a bit off of course.

Market Update:

Interesting scenes in the markets right now.

$BTC dropped $250 in the last hour and is currently bouncing off of support. There is confluence between a support trend line as well as a horizontal support zone. Prior to the spill BTC went ultra low vol. Imperfect RW structure was also present. Typically the direction in which volatility returns is indicative of the direction in which momentum will persist for a period.

Looking at a potential long on $XRP.

Basic entry strategy is as pictured. Potential for early entry in the yellow zone with a fairly tight stop. This initial entry would be treated as a semi-scalp, I'd look to take profit early and move stop lose to new base price. On the other hand, setup confirmation and proper entry comes if/when the bold green line is broken.

Quick Update:

I'll post something more detailed tomorrow, just a few basic thoughts here. $BTC did end up hitting the zone I previously mentioned as being an ideal top, currently bouncing off of it. Fairly significant confluence of resistance in this region.

128 Day MA has proven to be significant almost every time it's been tested for years. Base of prior consolidation zone. Price target on setup has also just been hit. Resistance trend line as well.

Micro update on $ETH, see linked thread for broader explanation of scenario cast. We're still well and truly on track for downside continuation. Doesn't look like we'll get the opportunity for early entry I was looking for at $304, but that's fine.

https://twitter.com/Lucid_TA/status/1033615879408218112

The scenario pictured is an updated estimation of how a downside continuation setup may occur (see thread linked previously for earlier estimations). This is still purely hypothetical until we see setup confirmation, though structure as yet is beautiful.

Despite the rallying cries of bottom callers, I remain unconvinced by this pump. Though I'll gladly flip my perspective if strong enough evidence arises.

As of right now, I still think the highest probability scenario is a short squeeze before further lows. $BTC $ETH Though imperfect, BTC is exhibiting rising wedge structure; with a significant resistance cluster just above (prior consolidation zone, resistance level, price target, 128 Day MA, maybe daily TD9). Ideally we see a pop through the top of RW into this cluster before spilling.

Bitmex Maintenance Drama Thread:

My intention in writing this thread is to elucidate the most salient points regarding recent PA and the #Bitmex drama. There has been a lot of noise in the past 24 hours, hopefully this will help to cut through it all. As far as I'm concerned there are 2 primary potential explanations for the pump.

The first of course being manipulation.

There were a number of suspect activities that occurred prior to the event (hidden buy walls maintaining/increasing price, $100m of USDT moved to exchanges).