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Alex Krüger Profile picture
@krugermacro
Aug 28, 2018 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Crypto moves of July & August are something to laugh about and make market participants throw everything but technicals & momentum out the window.
1st rally on fakenews about an ETF that won't happen
2nd crash on an ETF rejection that was no surprise
3rd crash on an ETF postponement that was no news
4th rally on failure to tank on ETF rejections that were no news

All very rational. #crypto
Should replace there "was not news" by "should have been no news". The market's inability to process information efficiently is one of the key points.

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More from @krugermacro

Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 4, 2018
Lot's of talk about Tether & Bitfinex, some even mentioning "exit scam". Crypto pairs in Bitfinex are trading at 0.75%-1% premium over spot exchanges. However, same can be observed in Tether exchanges. e.g. prices in Binance same as in Bitfinex =>this is not a Bitfinex issue.
A couple of red flags aside, I don't think there is reason to be particularly concerned. Selling of Tether for other asset-backed stable coins is to be expected.
Now anyone operating in an exchange exposed to Tether or one that performs no KYC is always exposed to some sort of tail risk. Only way around that is moving to crypto-fiat regulated exchanges, which have higher operational costs (KYC is expensive) and charge higher trading fees.
Read 5 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 3, 2018
#deletefacebook

forbes.com/sites/parmyols…
Narrative: "My top priority has always been our social mission of connecting people and bringing the world together" ~ Zuck.

Reality: "People ... I don't know why. They "trust me". Dumb fucks." ~ Zuck.

His top priority is using people to sell targeted ads. #deletefacebook
It all started with Facebook's Timeline, an intrusive interface designed to push ads. Other things followed: recording phone logs, hacks, 3rd party apps snooping, discriminating users, nudging for users to provide more and more and more information, etc.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Oct 2, 2018
Brazil stocks +5% today in USD terms, strictly on political news. Chart locks great for longs. 1st round Presidential elections Oct/7. The two most voted candidates go onto a 2nd round on Oct/28.
Chart aside, what one trades is the elections: Bolsonaro (right-wing populist wildcard, similar to Trump, initially despised by markets, now seen positively as much better than the alternative) vs. Haddad (left-wing candidate, Lula's party). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian…
Two things behind today's rally.

- new info on the corruption scandal involving Haddad's party: voanews.com/amp/brazil-jud…?

- more importantly: Ibope polls showing a sharp improvement in Bolsonaro's odds.
Read 4 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
1/ Key factors for global markets

- Fed tightening: rising rates, balance sheet reduction, USD funding squeeze. Fed expects three more hikes in 2019.
- US economy overheating. Fiscal cuts in action, US profit margins at all time highs, unemployment at lowest level since 2000.
2/
- US treasury curve inverting, pointing towards incoming recession.
- Oil spiking in response to demand shocks and low spare capacity could lead to increased inflation and tightening.
- Ballooned public and corporate debt levels.
3/
- Trade wars: US tariffs would result in China's GDP dropping 75bps. Worldwide spillover effects.
- To compensate, China looking to reflate domestic economy via spending & monetary easing.
- EM at risk from Fed tightening and strong USD; are these already priced in?
Read 5 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
Chart shares one of my signals which I call the Volume Thrust. It's a high volume/volatility breakouts signal. Can be applied to multiple time frames i.e. five minute charts or daily charts. Sharing it to illustrate price action concepts.
Understanding this is useful for investors as well who want to enter positions only with the trend. It's also helpful to any trader who is fearful of buying a top. Buying a top or selling a bottom sometimes represents good decision making.
First, when there is a high volume push in one direction, a trader generally wants to go in the direction of the push. Second, when push fails and price reverses in full beyond origin point, that's a trap, trader wants to reverse position (or at least exit prior position if any).
Read 11 tweets
Alex Krüger Profile picture
Sep 27, 2018
This could happen to crypto exchanges offering trading of security tokens and security token derivatives. If $XRP were to be defined as a security it would jeopardize exchanges such as Bitmex. Binance is at risk regardless. Lots of security tokens there.
Sounds familiar?

(Source: sec.gov/news/press-rel…)
Just yesterday I was reading about how 1broker had started offering CFDs on cannabis stocks, offering traders to open an account with an email address, fund it with bitcoin, and hit it with 50x leverage.
Read 8 tweets

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