Thread by @Usherwood

Let's come back to this point

We're at a block at Art.50 and have been for some time

1/

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1034707335745339392

That block mostly consists of the Irish backstop, plus assorted governance issues (including the role of the ECJ)

2/

Since March, we've not seen any real mvt on these points, esp Irish dimension

3/

As @JamesERothwell says, EU seems fundamentally unwilling to let WA advance w/o UK commitment to backstop.

UK says it can only do that if backstop never actually comes into force

4/

@JamesERothwell All this has been clear for much time now, so Q is why don't we get the move to close the gap (which might be smaller than it looks)?

5/

In part, it's because there's no immediate time pressure (the subject of the original thread), esp w both sides giving up on Oct for a deal

6/

However, there's no clear hard end to Art.50, as any deal has to be ratified before 29/3/19, so can't run (on current timetable) past Xmas on negotiations

7/

In addition, also issues of making a treaty all properly legal-ly

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1014422132573528066

8/

So Q is how to generate something that acts as a hard deadline, to help concentrate minds and force action?

9/

One option is (h/t @Brigid_Fowler) for EP to declare that if it doesn't get text by date X, then it can't do its ratification prior to #EP19

10/

Of the 3 parties, EP is only one that could realistically do this, but it's also the one most susceptible to pressure (from EU27) to move. Plus Conference of Presidents (h/t @AndrewDuffEU) have no reason to raise the peril on this

11/

Another option is for EU27/COM to declare a hard end-date to negotiations, after which they switch to contingency work for no-deal.

12/

However, that looks not particularly credible (as EU27 wants a deal), plus it leaves EU open to becoming "the ones who made Brexit even more of a mess"

That's bad for managing EU public opinion and relations w third-countries

13/

Only other option is that HMG works backwards on its commitments on HoC/HoL debates on deal ahead of meaningful vote, plus CRAG requirements, to set out its last date for a deal

14/

However, that's well into 2019, so might leave EU27 feeling nervous about last minute problems and wld be handing more leverage to UK than has been case so far in Art.50

15/

tl;dr you probably need a hard deadline to get to a deal, but you'll struggle to find one

/end