James Wilson Profile picture
Aug 30, 2018 8 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
"In Kerala, there’s no reason to damn the dams" here is my answer to all pundits who are preaching an early opening of Idukki would have saved the flooding of Periyar..

Read it slowly and understand the nuances! nationalheraldindia.com/india/in-keral…
Grab the hardcopy and read @NH_India
I felt depressed when a person who served as the Director of the prestigious IITM says that he has given warning & Kerala has no respect for his warning but Odisha has!!
Oh boy!! I am at a loss if you cant discern cyclones in East coast and extreme rainfall in Western coast
This explains the grave problem our country is going through. We seen this during #DemonetisationDisaster many economists shed basic economic theories and shamelessly defended it. I will be very happy when IMD develops the capabilities to predict these extreme storms like cyclone
If a meteorologist who head IMD says that Odisha respects our warnings but Kerala or the West Coast have no respect!! It is palatable to the ones who are waiting for to take it as a Gospel. I did not study meteorology, but my basic common sense and understanding made me shocked!
Then next group is the ones who proved their mettle in very unique fields but has no experience in managing reservoirs & flood hydrology. Of course, the society is aware that if they have a cardiac problem, they should go to a cardiologist and not a orthopaedic...
But Sadly for all other areas, we should seek response on esoteric subjects from celebrities to experts from other domains where they have no have expertise other than a generalist view. Great! This is the way forward for scientific temper. We are happy with a response from X/Y/Z
Unless we understand that there are esoteric and complex areas of science and engineering which needs decades of experience of observing and learning and our academic qualifications are only the foundation to start this long journey, we will be like blind lead a group blind

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More from @jamewils

Sep 18, 2018
Some #Demonetisation thoughts!

Many here asked me why I am not reacted to the latest RBI Annual Report which exposed DeMon as nothing but a perverted dream of a Tughlak.

First of all there was nothing surprising elements there for me!!
Then everyone was discussing the amount of 99% returned to the system! Some sigh of relief as our Urjit stop counting, but I don't get any evidence that he has stopped that!!

Because still we hear about old SBN notes are seized by agencies ;)
Annual Report 2017-18 of the RBI that Rs.15.311 trillion Specified Bank Notes was returned. While RBI in its AR in 2016-17 itself admitted that as of June 30, 2017, received Rs.15.28 trillion of SBN. 

Total SBN demotenised was Rs.15.44 trillion

99.2% vs 99.0% is a big deal?? 😉
Read 16 tweets
Sep 2, 2018
IMD started issuing alerts "be prepared" from August 8! "For action" was issued on August 9.

At least glad that IMD admitted that their alerts were that close.

Also thank you for not claiming that they have issued alerts for "extreme rainfall" and only "heavy rainfall" then
I scanned all those reports of this regional office issued. NOWHERE I SEEN AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT ALERT. Each Monsoon season IMD used to issue HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL alerts and small reservoirs used to spill and the spate will be comfortably negotiated by the rivers
Please understand the nuances. We can negotiate a heavy rainfall event, whatever allowances in the dams and river channels are sufficient to negotiate that one. You will see some flooding, may be a knee deep one & dams spill w/o any problems
Read 25 tweets
Aug 27, 2018
With due respect to his credentials as an expert environmentalist, I differ with him, because this is a repeat of 1924 and this type of extreme events will occur with an annual exceedence probability of 9.52% in a span of 100 years!

Extreme floods is not his area of expertise!
In our country, we have a habit of people and experts venture into the uncharted territory where they have no domain knowledge.

I can't/will not comment on ecology or environment because it's not my domain. I read and understand but never make sweeping statements about that
What about the 1924 flood? When Kerala had no encroachment and had one foruth of the population than now?

Now the scientific evidence shows that this 2018 is a repeat of 1924!! Nature has it's crazy behaviour.

Gadgil is right about landslides but not about floods. Sorry!
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22, 2018
I am ready for a debate with any of these experts who are blaming KSEB for mismanagement of dam operations.

Stop sweeping statements! Come out with data and talk sense!

Don't lead a literate society to blind spots!!
When our catchment areas had experienced one third of the annual rainfall within 4 days pinch yourself...Can you believe it?

& the Engineers managed efficiently and contained these floods even when you had a 1 in 1000 year flood!

Please don't destroy their morale!!
This is the hard evidence of 4 days of non-stop extreme rainfall

Idukki -811mm (Idukki Dist)
Pamba - 344 mm (Pathanamthitta Dist)
Kakki - 915 mm (Pathanamthitta Dist)
Kuttiyadi - 954 mm (Kozhikode Dist)
Idamalayar - 644 mm (Ernakulam Dist)
Read 14 tweets
Aug 21, 2018
Damn Dams!!

They created all hell in Kerala......

How many dams are there in Achecoil, Manimala & Meenachil which created havoc in Central Kerala?

ZERO

How much yield of Pamba River is impounded in the dams there?

JUST 10.4%

Blame it on dams!!
Come to the Northern Kerala.....

There you have the Great Chaliyar River, which flows through Kozhikode and Malappuram Districts.

How many dams are there is this Chaliyar River basin other than some small weirs?
ZERO.

Blame it on dams..
Why ur doing annual maintenance of Idukki machines whn the Monsoon is active?

Smart QN.

But understand that Idukki is meeting Kerala's peak energy demand, its annual maintenance are done during monsoon and its all machine are needed in summer whn demand high, not in monsoon
Read 27 tweets
Aug 19, 2018
Let me try to answer briefly, though meteorology or climate change science is my area of expertise. I normally don't venture into unknown territories

My surmises are based on my extensive research on past extreme rainfall events & PMP estimates (upper bound of rainfall)
It's not about the overall rainfall in an year, though the trend is more or less not much difference, we can observe a slight decrease. Same time we are seeing a skewed no of rainfall days off late. That means less number of rainy days and more intense rains
Climate change scientists predicted more frequent rainfall events for Western Coast. But I think that the present rainfall events of Mumbai of 2005 or Kerala of 2018 are not enough to make a reach a conclusion that we are experiencing the after effects of climate change.
Read 12 tweets

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