James Wilson Profile picture
Sep 2, 2018 25 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
IMD started issuing alerts "be prepared" from August 8! "For action" was issued on August 9.

At least glad that IMD admitted that their alerts were that close.

Also thank you for not claiming that they have issued alerts for "extreme rainfall" and only "heavy rainfall" then
I scanned all those reports of this regional office issued. NOWHERE I SEEN AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT ALERT. Each Monsoon season IMD used to issue HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL alerts and small reservoirs used to spill and the spate will be comfortably negotiated by the rivers
Please understand the nuances. We can negotiate a heavy rainfall event, whatever allowances in the dams and river channels are sufficient to negotiate that one. You will see some flooding, may be a knee deep one & dams spill w/o any problems
The extreme rainfall events throw all the equilibrium to haywire, you will force your dams open in no time, thanks to their small size and quick response of our hilly catchments, river will swell due to the free catchment flows and you will be under neck deep of water
It's like when you drive your car at 60 kmph, it's easy to negotiate traffic signals and effectively apply breaks, etc. But once you to a lightening speed of 180 kmph and you want to avoid collateral damage, these rules should pave way for exceptions
Of course, IMD logic can be equated with another analogy with a hypothetical scenario. They warn you that Kerala is susceptible to EQ 3 in Richer Scale. But when we hit with an EQ of 5 magnitude, they will say we warned you. N.a.?

Science should admit it's limitations
Let's look at the alert for 25th of August by IMD is a classic example. Sent a Very Heavy warning and all districts mobilised and people panicked and then withdrew it the next day!!

Scan there predictions in last water year! Your answers will get clear
This is the glossary used by IMD, it's available here for download. So understand the nuances.

Don't try to equate cyclone warning in the east coast and the rainstorms in Western coast!! And make stupid arguments like Odisha listen to us, Kerala don't.

A cyclone is one natural calamity we can predict with 90% above accuracy about its intensity & path even before a week.
Do IMD boast they have similar capabilities for to do a prognosis for monsoon storms in the West coast? Enlighten us what % accuracy you will predict and what response time available?

Or we should run every time you say " പുലി വരുന്നേ പുലി വരുന്നേ"
Admitting our limitations are the first step to learn and improve rather than justifying your limitations and passing the bucks!

IMD reach out to international scientific community after Odisha cyclones in 1999 after 10,000 deaths & improved capabilities of cyclone prediction
Do IMD admit this?

The worst of all is, its rainfall network for Kerala itself is very weak. 69 rain stations as against the BIS stipulated 258. Of the 69 only 5 automatic. Most of then clustered along the coast!!

Now compare we are going to install 11 automatic + 2 AWS for MPD

As per August 9 predictions of IMD Wide spread heavy rainfall is shown against kerala on 15th. The maximum of heavy rainfall according to IMD is 124.4 mm.

What we had received is 260mm to 295mm.

Look at IMD's own records!
Is it true that IMD's Radar didn't work on 8th and 9th and Member Secretary of SDMA wrote a letter attaching screen shot to GoI to get it back working on 10th and the data started coming in the site?!!

Please answer! Things are here in B&W
With out an Automatic Rain Guage network and proper automated observation network, we will still be let down by the predictions.

Sink in that IMD is the sole nodal Dept and they don't permit ISRO or even private players to do this!
Foot Note:-

If IMD can put out on public domain a single warning before 15/08/2018 saying that an extreme storm event is going to happen with its eye at Peerumedu or elsewhere in Kerala, then I will admit that State failed to respond to their warnings.

That is it!
This is on August 02, 2018 reported in Live Mint. So what changed with respect to the capabilities of IMD within a fortnight??
Having said that, everything change after #KeralaFloods, you should take IMD, who failed to predict the extreme rainfall event in 15-17 August, so seriously and empty your reservoirs, forget whether it will make any quantitative difference!

I will take a lottery ticket instead
Every Dick and Harry now preaching us to take IMD's word as Gospel should read this.
IMD's do this trapeze every time!!! This is after that Mumbai rains in 2017!
Please read the complexities and uncertainties
Scientific inquisitiveness followed by understanding the nuances is important. But we are reaching our conjectures based on our political leanings
I appreciate when someone admits their limitations, that is the right way to move forward, rather than passing bucks by Dr. Rajeevan or the local IMD office
This is the way a scientist should respond.

Not passing bucks to the State Government.
Here is your answer!!

This is the answer from the Head of Climate Prediction at the Climate Research Division of the IMD, D Sivananda Pai

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More from @jamewils

Sep 18, 2018
Some #Demonetisation thoughts!

Many here asked me why I am not reacted to the latest RBI Annual Report which exposed DeMon as nothing but a perverted dream of a Tughlak.

First of all there was nothing surprising elements there for me!!
Then everyone was discussing the amount of 99% returned to the system! Some sigh of relief as our Urjit stop counting, but I don't get any evidence that he has stopped that!!

Because still we hear about old SBN notes are seized by agencies ;)
Annual Report 2017-18 of the RBI that Rs.15.311 trillion Specified Bank Notes was returned. While RBI in its AR in 2016-17 itself admitted that as of June 30, 2017, received Rs.15.28 trillion of SBN. 

Total SBN demotenised was Rs.15.44 trillion

99.2% vs 99.0% is a big deal?? 😉
Read 16 tweets
Aug 30, 2018
"In Kerala, there’s no reason to damn the dams" here is my answer to all pundits who are preaching an early opening of Idukki would have saved the flooding of Periyar..

Read it slowly and understand the nuances! nationalheraldindia.com/india/in-keral…
Grab the hardcopy and read @NH_India
I felt depressed when a person who served as the Director of the prestigious IITM says that he has given warning & Kerala has no respect for his warning but Odisha has!!
Oh boy!! I am at a loss if you cant discern cyclones in East coast and extreme rainfall in Western coast
Read 8 tweets
Aug 27, 2018
With due respect to his credentials as an expert environmentalist, I differ with him, because this is a repeat of 1924 and this type of extreme events will occur with an annual exceedence probability of 9.52% in a span of 100 years!

Extreme floods is not his area of expertise!
In our country, we have a habit of people and experts venture into the uncharted territory where they have no domain knowledge.

I can't/will not comment on ecology or environment because it's not my domain. I read and understand but never make sweeping statements about that
What about the 1924 flood? When Kerala had no encroachment and had one foruth of the population than now?

Now the scientific evidence shows that this 2018 is a repeat of 1924!! Nature has it's crazy behaviour.

Gadgil is right about landslides but not about floods. Sorry!
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22, 2018
I am ready for a debate with any of these experts who are blaming KSEB for mismanagement of dam operations.

Stop sweeping statements! Come out with data and talk sense!

Don't lead a literate society to blind spots!!
When our catchment areas had experienced one third of the annual rainfall within 4 days pinch yourself...Can you believe it?

& the Engineers managed efficiently and contained these floods even when you had a 1 in 1000 year flood!

Please don't destroy their morale!!
This is the hard evidence of 4 days of non-stop extreme rainfall

Idukki -811mm (Idukki Dist)
Pamba - 344 mm (Pathanamthitta Dist)
Kakki - 915 mm (Pathanamthitta Dist)
Kuttiyadi - 954 mm (Kozhikode Dist)
Idamalayar - 644 mm (Ernakulam Dist)
Read 14 tweets
Aug 21, 2018
Damn Dams!!

They created all hell in Kerala......

How many dams are there in Achecoil, Manimala & Meenachil which created havoc in Central Kerala?


How much yield of Pamba River is impounded in the dams there?

JUST 10.4%

Blame it on dams!!
Come to the Northern Kerala.....

There you have the Great Chaliyar River, which flows through Kozhikode and Malappuram Districts.

How many dams are there is this Chaliyar River basin other than some small weirs?

Blame it on dams..
Why ur doing annual maintenance of Idukki machines whn the Monsoon is active?

Smart QN.

But understand that Idukki is meeting Kerala's peak energy demand, its annual maintenance are done during monsoon and its all machine are needed in summer whn demand high, not in monsoon
Read 27 tweets
Aug 19, 2018
Let me try to answer briefly, though meteorology or climate change science is my area of expertise. I normally don't venture into unknown territories

My surmises are based on my extensive research on past extreme rainfall events & PMP estimates (upper bound of rainfall)
It's not about the overall rainfall in an year, though the trend is more or less not much difference, we can observe a slight decrease. Same time we are seeing a skewed no of rainfall days off late. That means less number of rainy days and more intense rains
Climate change scientists predicted more frequent rainfall events for Western Coast. But I think that the present rainfall events of Mumbai of 2005 or Kerala of 2018 are not enough to make a reach a conclusion that we are experiencing the after effects of climate change.
Read 12 tweets

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