Thread by @jamewils

IMD started issuing alerts "be prepared" from August 8! "For action" was issued on August 9.

At least glad that IMD admitted that their alerts were that close.

Also thank you for not claiming that they have issued alerts for "extreme rainfall" and only "heavy rainfall" then

I scanned all those reports of this regional office issued. NOWHERE I SEEN AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT ALERT. Each Monsoon season IMD used to issue HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL alerts and small reservoirs used to spill and the spate will be comfortably negotiated by the rivers

Please understand the nuances. We can negotiate a heavy rainfall event, whatever allowances in the dams and river channels are sufficient to negotiate that one. You will see some flooding, may be a knee deep one & dams spill w/o any problems

The extreme rainfall events throw all the equilibrium to haywire, you will force your dams open in no time, thanks to their small size and quick response of our hilly catchments, river will swell due to the free catchment flows and you will be under neck deep of water

It's like when you drive your car at 60 kmph, it's easy to negotiate traffic signals and effectively apply breaks, etc. But once you to a lightening speed of 180 kmph and you want to avoid collateral damage, these rules should pave way for exceptions

Of course, IMD logic can be equated with another analogy with a hypothetical scenario. They warn you that Kerala is susceptible to EQ 3 in Richer Scale. But when we hit with an EQ of 5 magnitude, they will say we warned you. N.a.?

Science should admit it's limitations

Let's look at the alert for 25th of August by IMD is a classic example. Sent a Very Heavy warning and all districts mobilised and people panicked and then withdrew it the next day!!

Scan there predictions in last water year! Your answers will get clear

This is the glossary used by IMD, it's available here for download. So understand the nuances.

google.co.in/url?sa=t&sourc…

Don't try to equate cyclone warning in the east coast and the rainstorms in Western coast!! And make stupid arguments like Odisha listen to us, Kerala don't.

A cyclone is one natural calamity we can predict with 90% above accuracy about its intensity & path even before a week.

Do IMD boast they have similar capabilities for to do a prognosis for monsoon storms in the West coast? Enlighten us what % accuracy you will predict and what response time available?

Or we should run every time you say " പുലി വരുന്നേ പുലി വരുന്നേ"

Admitting our limitations are the first step to learn and improve rather than justifying your limitations and passing the bucks!

IMD reach out to international scientific community after Odisha cyclones in 1999 after 10,000 deaths & improved capabilities of cyclone prediction

Do IMD admit this?

The worst of all is, its rainfall network for Kerala itself is very weak. 69 rain stations as against the BIS stipulated 258. Of the 69 only 5 automatic. Most of then clustered along the coast!!

Now compare we are going to install 11 automatic + 2 AWS for MPD

Further,

As per August 9 predictions of IMD Wide spread heavy rainfall is shown against kerala on 15th. The maximum of heavy rainfall according to IMD is 124.4 mm.

What we had received is 260mm to 295mm.

Look at IMD's own records!

Is it true that IMD's Radar didn't work on 8th and 9th and Member Secretary of SDMA wrote a letter attaching screen shot to GoI to get it back working on 10th and the data started coming in the site?!!

Please answer! Things are here in B&W

With out an Automatic Rain Guage network and proper automated observation network, we will still be let down by the predictions.

Sink in that IMD is the sole nodal Dept and they don't permit ISRO or even private players to do this!

Foot Note:-

If IMD can put out on public domain a single warning before 15/08/2018 saying that an extreme storm event is going to happen with its eye at Peerumedu or elsewhere in Kerala, then I will admit that State failed to respond to their warnings.

That is it!

This is on August 02, 2018 reported in Live Mint. So what changed with respect to the capabilities of IMD within a fortnight??

Having said that, everything change after #KeralaFloods, you should take IMD, who failed to predict the extreme rainfall event in 15-17 August, so seriously and empty your reservoirs, forget whether it will make any quantitative difference!

I will take a lottery ticket instead

Every Dick and Harry now preaching us to take IMD's word as Gospel should read this.

IMD's do this trapeze every time!!! This is after that Mumbai rains in 2017!

Please read the complexities and uncertainties

Scientific inquisitiveness followed by understanding the nuances is important. But we are reaching our conjectures based on our political leanings

I appreciate when someone admits their limitations, that is the right way to move forward, rather than passing bucks by Dr. Rajeevan or the local IMD office

This is the way a scientist should respond.

Not passing bucks to the State Government.

Here is your answer!!

This is the answer from the Head of Climate Prediction at the Climate Research Division of the IMD, D Sivananda Pai