I'll post something more detailed tomorrow, just a few basic thoughts here. $BTC did end up hitting the zone I previously mentioned as being an ideal top, currently bouncing off of it.
Fairly significant confluence of resistance in this region.
128 Day MA has proven to be significant almost every time it's been tested for years. Base of prior consolidation zone. Price target on setup has also just been hit. Resistance trend line as well.
On the other hand, PA on BTC certainly looks alright for the bulls. We've seen a gradual stair stepping upwards, with prior resistance consistently becoming support. Typically a weak response to capitulation is bearish - though of course that changes if it's sustained.
Though I'm still mid term bear biased, I'd happily enter long if a setup manifests on $BTC. Currently looking at both longs and short in alts - will give a proper update and explanation of my thoughts there soon.
Another significant thing to note is what has been happening with margin positions on BFX. Shorts have rocketed up more than 10k units in less than 4 hours. As far as I'm aware that's a record. At the same time, there's been a bull whale accumulating with hidden orders on BFX.
Though it's hard to draw any rock solid conclusions from the aforementioned information (as manipulation could well be at play), based on information available this is bullish. Simple reasoning; shorts have to cover. Shorts = unrealised buying pressure.
In any case, I'm not necessarily viewing this rapid increase in the same light as I'd view the normal fluctuations in margin positions. This is for a number of reasons that I'll cover in the near future.
In any case, the total market cap chart is still quite far from bullish. RW/bear flag style PA which is currently testing prior support (now resistance). There are similarities between current PA and that which occurred in July (pictured in the chart).
Despite a number of significant pumps, total #altcoin market cap chart remains relatively subdued.
Though I'm still bear biased, I'm looking to hedge my bets by trading long on strongest coins and short on the weakest. Will extrapolate further soon.
That's it for this update, just a few basic observations. I remain bear biased mid term though I'm willing to change my mind if certain conditions are met.
Stay safe out there!
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Though I've stated this in previous posts, my current expectation is for weak bullishness near term followed by a strong break down before we put in a significant low.
Though a wont go into detail here, a few simple reasons for bearish outlook are as follows:
- impulsiveness is with the bears, continuing to see weak responses from bulls
- macro descending triangle structure on $BTC
- #alts in steady downtrends, still calling for lower targets
Until we see high probability bottoming structure, trying to buy every dip is a net losing strategy. Don't fish for bottoms unless they're extremely obvious. Though potential reward is high, it's a bad play risk adjusted.
I've been astounded by the amount of people trying to trade long these past few days.
Near term trend is down, mid term trend is down. The only real reason given is that "yearly support has held 4 times previously, therefore it will likely hold again".
It seems as though these individuals must be viewing that idea in isolation. In proper context, there is really nothing bullish about recent PA.
Even if one were determined to trade this long, it'd make a lot more sense to wait for a NT uptrend before entry at the very least.
Trying to catch falling knives when momentum is so strongly against your favour is not a winning strategy long term.
Though it has yet to close, the weekly candle has consumed 2 (almost 3) weeks of gains in around 4 days. Brutal.
Micro continuation setups across the board, I was looking to trade VF structure on $ETH and $BTC (mostly ETH). Setup pictured is BTC, but the same structure was present on ETH.
Intended entry was on green line break. I was woken at 4am but missed it as it happened so fast.
Though it's unfortunate to have missed these last 2 significant spills (especially as I've been tracking this exact move for a long time), there are always more opportunities.
At the very least it's a great example of why this strategy is so successful. The idea is to catch maximum RR with min time on risk. Entries are aimed to occur just as the market moves violently so that positions move heavily in your favour shortly after the trade is opened.
Potential volatility funnel structure to form on $BTC. Looking for consolidation around volume node/prior trading range. If applicable, early would be around the $6500 region.
I'll update further if the setup eventuates.
Micro update; $BTC currently around the upper bound of the zone in which I'm looking for consolidation. Though it doesn't have to occur, I think there's a decent chance we see a retracement here soon. Rest of the market would likely follow. Arrows were a bit off of course.
Further Update:
Fairly strong chance that this is the beginning of the last dead cat bounce before new lows. I doubt we'll see strong follow-through from the bulls, expecting a shallow grind, or tightening volatility pattern.
$BTC dropped $250 in the last hour and is currently bouncing off of support. There is confluence between a support trend line as well as a horizontal support zone.
Prior to the spill BTC went ultra low vol. Imperfect RW structure was also present. Typically the direction in which volatility returns is indicative of the direction in which momentum will persist for a period.
Things look a lot worse on $ETH. Downside continuation structure has triggered and confirmed (chart pictured is inverse). Unfortunately I was out at dinner when the micro squeeze (shown in white) broke so I missed proper entry. Looking to short on pullbacks or further setups.
Basic entry strategy is as pictured. Potential for early entry in the yellow zone with a fairly tight stop. This initial entry would be treated as a semi-scalp, I'd look to take profit early and move stop lose to new base price.
On the other hand, setup confirmation and proper entry comes if/when the bold green line is broken.
Part of the reason I'm looking at XRP particularly is due to the fact that it over-performed relative to the rest of the market off the lows, and has underperformed thereafter. If historical trends continue, then XRP is likely to outperform the market if we get another leg up.