Matteo Villa Profile picture
Sep 4, 2018 10 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
(⛔🚢BREAKING) NO WAY OUT. As fighting in #Tripoli rages on, this August just 1,300 #migrants left #Libya in an attempt to reach Europe by sea.

This is the LOWEST Summer figure since 2012.

Migrants are trapped in #Libya, often in appalling conditions. Made even worse by the recent fighting in #Tripoli.
FOLLOW this crucial reporting by @sallyhayd. 👇

(⛔🚢BREAKING) Of the 742 that made it to Europe from #Libya this August, less than a third (234) disembarked in Italy. Of these, 190 were onboard an Italian Coast Guard ship during the "#Diciotti standoff".

Another 56% (416) disembarked in Malta.
12% (87) disembarked in Spain.
Meanwhile, smuggling in #Libya is slowly reorganizing. More and more of those who attempt the journey try to reach #Italy directly, entering the Maltese SAR zone.
Earlier this year, almost everyone was saved within the Libyan SAR zone.

More standoffs likely in September.
(⛔🚢BREAKING) Of the few #migrants that attempted to leave #Libya to reach Europe in August, around 4 in 10 were brought back by the Libyan Coast Guard.
While still very high, this hints at a sharp decrease in activity by the LCG (follow on).
(⛔🚢BREAKING) As smugglers increasingly switch to boats with engines, the Libyan Coast Guard appears to be less able to deter this kind of departures.
Interceptions peaked at 3,453 in June, but dropped to just 552 in August. These are the lowest figures since April 2016.
(⛔🚢BREAKING) The risk of dying at sea in Central Med remained more than double the period before "total deterrence" starterd.

In August, risk dropped to 1.4%. While suggestive of a possible trend, given low number of departures, this is not (yet) statistically relevant.

- As departures drop to lowest level in years, #migrants are trapped in #Libya;
- Deteriorating security conditions in #Tripoli raise risk migrants are caught in the middle;
- Smuggling is slowly adapting to new conditions, but for now has been dealt quite a blow.
The dataset is publicly available here:…

It will be constantly updated over the next months.
Previous instalment (August, with July 2018 data): "Everyone goes back". 👇

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More from @emmevilla

Aug 16, 2018
Nave #Diciotti e i 177 #migranti ancora a bordo: proviamo a fare chiarezza?

(SPOILER: non sarà per niente facile)


#Malta sostiene che il barcone con 190 #migranti ieri notte non fosse in pericolo (distress), e che per questo motivo quando era in loro zona SAR lo MRCC maltese non abbia coordinato salvataggio ma solo affiancato barca e prestato assistenza.
Secondo Malta, questo è sufficiente perché La Valletta non debba indicare un proprio “porto sicuro” per sbarcare i #migranti raccolti dalla nave #Diciotti.
Ma la realtà è ben più complessa.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 11, 2018
🚢⛵️🚤🤔With less NGOs at sea (#Aquarius @MSF_Sea, @openarms_fund), we have seen people being saved from sturdier boats, trawlers arriving directly to 🇮🇹 shores.
The question: do NGOs' search and rescue activities affect how #Libya smugglers send #migrants at sea?
First: TIMING.

Data shows that rubber dinghies were already the most used means of transport in 2015, when NGOs were small minority of rescuers.
It also shows shift to smaller vessels (dinghies + small boats), from 78% to 90%+. But these were already large majority in 2015.

Using what yearly data we have available, is there any evidence that NGOs affected the prevalence of unseaworthy rubber dinghies, as compared to sturdier vessels? Well, NOPE. 👇
Read 9 tweets
Aug 2, 2018
(⛔️🚢BREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. In July, 23% of #migrants departing from #Libya made it to Europe. This is the LOWEST share ever.

72% were caught and brought back.

5.2% died or went missing.
(⛔️🚢BREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. Since July 16th, numbers paint an even starker (and somewhat different) picture.

99.5% of #migrants departing from #Libya were caught and brought back.

0.5% died or went missing (very few).

No one made it to Europe.
(🔴BREAKING) DEPARTURES FROM LIBYA ARE DOWN MARKEDLY. In June, about 6,900 migrants took to the sea from Libya's shores. This month, about 3,000 did: a 56% drop that is highly unusual during the Summer season.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 23, 2018
⛔️🚷LA STRATEGIA DELLA DETERRENZA TOTALE. Su @ilfoglio_it di ieri, @borga_lor fa un grande lavoro per spiegare la strategia #sbarchi di questo Governo e per darne una misura dei rischi.
Leggetelo o, almeno, seguitemi qui sotto. 👇…
La "strategia Salvini" ha un obiettivo principale: ridurre gli sbarchi in Italia. E uno secondario: evitare le morti in mare.

Ma arriva dopo dieci mesi di calo sbarchi post-Minniti, in cui:
- gli sbarchi sono calati del 76%;
- morti e dispersi si sono ridotti del 74%.
Parliamo di numeri assoluti:

- SBARCHI. Nei 10 mesi e mezzo prima del calo sbarchi erano giunte in Italia circa 170.000 persone. Nei 10 mesi e mezzo di calo, circa 40.000.

- MORTI e DISPERSI IN MARE dalla Libia. 10 mesi e mezzo, prima e dopo: da 4.150 a 1.070.
Read 12 tweets
Jun 24, 2018

So. The #Lifeline case has descended into another Aquarius case. Meanwhile, 16 leaders of EU Member States meet for an #EUCO informal meeting on #migrationEU.

Time for a brief recap of the role of #NGO-s doing #SAR operations in the Central Mediterranean? 👇

Irregular sea arrivals to Italy are WAY down, and continue to be (-78% y-o-y), even as NGOs carried out over 40% of SAR operations in 2017 and 2018.
Still, 51% of Italians believe flows are as high or higher than last year's.👇
Second: DETERRENCE VS NGOs does not pay off (much).🚢⛔️📉

Over the last two weeks of the new goverment's "deterring measures", the decline in sea arrivals vs 2017 is broadly in line with the drop experienced since July 2017. With or without #Aquarius and #Lifeline arrivals. 👇
Read 8 tweets

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