Thread by @jamesmb

Right. I'm ready to call it! The UK government is aiming for the #Brexit negotiations to lead to:

- A Norway deal
- A 'Norway' v '#Remain' referendum.

I'll show my working below!

#stopbrexit #peoplesvote

Why Norway?

Well, the answer to that lies on the island of #Ireland. Due to the GFA, there are not many ways of squaring the circle of having the hard border that is required by the WTO, Northern Ireland remaining in the UK and the UK being outside the customs union.

So the options faced by HMG are:

1 - call a border poll and let Northern Ireland and the Republic reunite as a single entity. While the Conservatives are nominally the Conservative & Unionist Party, there are many who would not share a tear at the loss of NI....

However, there are some that would and those are very vocal and hold lots of power. So that isn't happening.

2 - Stay in the EEA while joining EFTA. The UK knows that there is no technological solution short of unicorns with iPads - and iPads are expensive.

In order to make this work, the UKs withdrawal from the Customs Union would need to be allied to its joining of *GASP* Schengen (along with Ireland). Then we could all say there is no border... except for lorries. But it could just work. Just.

3 - Leave without being in the WTO. While the UK is content to self-harm, that would be a step too far.

4 - Breach the Good Friday Agreement. Would May risk a return of violence? It may not come about but it would be a hell of a risk.

So, EEA/EFTA (or Norway) it is.

Why a 'Norway' v 'Remain' poll?

@theresa_may has been very clear that there will be no re-run of the previous referendum and, despite all evidence to the contrary, she is not completely daft. She can dance though and dancing on a pinhead will be required here.

She will argue that a referendum to choose between two quantifiable outcomes is different to the one previously held (and in 1975) - which were between one quantifiable outcome & a theoretical one with no parameters. This will be painted as a triumph of democracy, etc, whatever.

With a Norway v Remain poll, there is no bad answer but there are two real choices that people cannot say are unclear. Democracy is restored and everyone (except gammons & @Arron_banks who were never happy) is happy.

The Government can then step back in the knowledge that trade will be safeguarded, along with services (which they have been remarkably quiet about despite them being 80% of the UK economy), along with the free movement rights that UK citizens rely on.

Everyone hails the negotiations, the pound climbs up to levels where it is worth more than the scrap value of the metal in the coins, @BorisJohnson is relegated back to third-rate journalist & nobody mentions the millions of quid wasted on the whole pointless exercise.

Either that or the Government is stuffed with utter morons, they actually let the UK leave with either no deal or a Canada deal and watch the UK fall apart.

Could go either way but my money is now on Norway.

#StopBrexit #PeoplesVote