Right. I'm ready to call it! The UK government is aiming for the #Brexit negotiations to lead to:

- A Norway deal
- A 'Norway' v '#Remain' referendum.

I'll show my working below!

#stopbrexit #peoplesvote
Why Norway?

Well, the answer to that lies on the island of #Ireland. Due to the GFA, there are not many ways of squaring the circle of having the hard border that is required by the WTO, Northern Ireland remaining in the UK and the UK being outside the customs union.
So the options faced by HMG are:

1 - call a border poll and let Northern Ireland and the Republic reunite as a single entity. While the Conservatives are nominally the Conservative & Unionist Party, there are many who would not share a tear at the loss of NI....
However, there are some that would and those are very vocal and hold lots of power. So that isn't happening.

2 - Stay in the EEA while joining EFTA. The UK knows that there is no technological solution short of unicorns with iPads - and iPads are expensive.
In order to make this work, the UKs withdrawal from the Customs Union would need to be allied to its joining of *GASP* Schengen (along with Ireland). Then we could all say there is no border... except for lorries. But it could just work. Just.
3 - Leave without being in the WTO. While the UK is content to self-harm, that would be a step too far.

4 - Breach the Good Friday Agreement. Would May risk a return of violence? It may not come about but it would be a hell of a risk.

So, EEA/EFTA (or Norway) it is.
Why a 'Norway' v 'Remain' poll?

@theresa_may has been very clear that there will be no re-run of the previous referendum and, despite all evidence to the contrary, she is not completely daft. She can dance though and dancing on a pinhead will be required here.
She will argue that a referendum to choose between two quantifiable outcomes is different to the one previously held (and in 1975) - which were between one quantifiable outcome & a theoretical one with no parameters. This will be painted as a triumph of democracy, etc, whatever.
With a Norway v Remain poll, there is no bad answer but there are two real choices that people cannot say are unclear. Democracy is restored and everyone (except gammons & @Arron_banks who were never happy) is happy.
The Government can then step back in the knowledge that trade will be safeguarded, along with services (which they have been remarkably quiet about despite them being 80% of the UK economy), along with the free movement rights that UK citizens rely on.
Everyone hails the negotiations, the pound climbs up to levels where it is worth more than the scrap value of the metal in the coins, @BorisJohnson is relegated back to third-rate journalist & nobody mentions the millions of quid wasted on the whole pointless exercise.
Either that or the Government is stuffed with utter morons, they actually let the UK leave with either no deal or a Canada deal and watch the UK fall apart.

Could go either way but my money is now on Norway.

#StopBrexit #PeoplesVote

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More from @jamesmb

Oct 9, 2018
Google+, you burst on to the #socialmedia scene like a comet. A rubbish comet in a fermement of amazing comets but a comet nonetheless. As others said you were wonderful & important, selling their services on the back of you, I said you were rubbish. I take my share of the blame.
As you became a wasteground, we continued to see the charlatans say you were a vital part of the #socialmedia spend. You weren't. #Search was always more important - along with the other social networks. #Google does so many things so amazingly well but this was never one of them
But it seems to be that you lived your life like a candle in the wind,
slowly going nowhere while the Twitter gleamed
And I would have liked to know you
But you were just too bad
Your candle burned out long before
The budget ever did.

#RIP #GooglePlus
Read 4 tweets
Oct 7, 2018
Right. I'm going to say it. Ready?

@theresa_may is right.

The #PeoplesVote is the Politicians' Referendum. And here's why ...
Different countries use referendums in different ways. At one end of the spectrum, we have the lovely Switzerland who have decided they want a system of referendums for just about everything...
...at the other end of the spectrum, you've for Britain which, as a rule, doesn't do referendums.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
BRITISH CITIZENS LIVING IN THE EU27. THIS CONCERNS YOU!

@theresa_may's awful government will not go the distance - it will fall and there will be an election - possibly even a #PeoplesVote. REGISTER TO VOTE NOW! Let's have our revenge!

gov.uk/register-to-vo…
If you have been living abroad for less than 15 years, you can vote. All you need is your last UK address and your national insurance number. It's simple. No forms, no finding people to sign stuff or make declarations.

It literally takes two minutes.

gov.uk/register-to-vo…
By the way, every time I mention voting, some gammon pops up and moans about British citizens overseas being able to vote. Well, here's the world's smallest violin just for you.

You didn't support us. You threw us under the bus. Now we get our turn. 👍

Enjoy!
Read 5 tweets
Sep 28, 2018
Let's learn from history.

Back in 1989/90, the Community Charge was introduced by Margaret Thatcher in Scotland and then England and Wales. You probably remember it as the Poll Tax. Despite it being hugely unpopular, Maggie pressed ahead with the policy.
Maggie's argument was that the people had voted for the policy - after all, it had been in the Tory manifesto that had given her another landslide - so she had to deliver it and they could not change their minds.
There were protests and some of them were pretty violent. Maggie said that there was no way that she would back down from the policy. Meanwhile, Tory MPs were hearing the upset from ordinary voters in their constituencies.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 19, 2018
And now @theresa_may will assert her considerable authority...
...any second now...
...any moment...
Read 6 tweets
Sep 19, 2018
I rarely directly share stuff from the British expat groups on Facebook as they are closed groups but I wanted you to see this. This is what we are up against.

In France, we have no effective consular support. @UKinFrance is awful.
The Ambassador himself does nothing to protect the interests of British citizens living here. The staff have been holding utterly pointless meetings where they parrot the UK government line without listening.
The UK embassy in Paris is the cushiest job in the diplomatic service. Great offices, well paid, plenty of receptions, dinners and events. The lot. Once you are in it, you are on Easy Street, riding the gravy train on biscuit wheels. No need to DO anything.
Read 4 tweets

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