Nate Johnson Profile picture
Sep 7, 2018 11 tweets 3 min read
So, it's Friday afternoon, and #Florence is a little closer to shore. A few thoughts, if I may. 1/
The latest model runs — and more importantly, the broader-scale pattern they are picking up on — suggest the odds of a landfall mid-late next week are going up.

But where?

2/
We're still in that window of anyone telling you they know exactly where #Florence is going is lying to you.

But, like I said earlier this week, someone telling you #Florence could be in your back yard is doing you a favor.

I'd like to think I'm doing you a favor.

3/
So, if you're, like me, in NC, what do you do?

First, don't spend your weekend freaking out. It will be hot w/ a few t-storms, but you can get out and enjoy it.

You could also use this as an excuse to start doing some of the cleanup outside we both know you're putting off.

4/
If you plan to ride it out where you are (and this is most of us here in inland NC), use this weekend to make sure you've got basic stuff in the event power (and if you're on a well, water) were to be out. It's the most likely impact regardless of where #Florence goes.

5/
Obviously, if you're closer to the coast - or any kind of fast-rising source of water - going somewhere else might be a better option. We're not "there" yet, but it's worth spending a few minutes thinking about where you might want to go — BUT! (next tweet)

6/
...at this point, it's foolish to lock yourself into anything. Take #Irma last year. Storm was well-forecast but still forced some folks to evacuate to one place only to have to move again. Now's the time to think through options, nothing more.

7/
Whatever you do, if you live along the east coast of the US — especially close to the coast — DON'T "CHECK OUT" THIS WEEKEND.

Please find a trusted source somewhere... TV, web, social, wherever... and keep up to date. Once a day is probably fine, but not less.

8/
Bottom line:

- Breathe. (Go ahead, I'll wait.)
- Use some time this weekend to think, clean, and prep.
- Please don't check out this weekend. Stay plugged in.
- If you're close to the coast, know your (evacuation) zone.
- Breathe again.

9/
Know that the best hurricane forecasters in the world are using the best science we have to determine where #Florence will go as soon as possible. And your local emergency managers and planners have been planning scenarios like these for ages. Trust 'em.

10/
And if you've got folks near you who might need help doing any or all of the above, please lend 'em a hand. Don't wait - take the initiative.

We're in this together, and we're better together.

We got this.

11/11

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More from @nsj

Sep 13, 2018
Another day, another couple of totally expected track wobbles. Minor and not shifting impacts all that much.

1/
Florence is HUGE. Put the eye in Columbia SC and the cloud shield would darken the skies from Manteo to Murphy. Plenty of wind in there, but that’s not the main story!

2/
Yes, 40+ mph winds extend some 200 mikes from the center. And yes, the storm weakened in terms of wind.

But that’s not what Florence will go down in the record books for, friends. The winds will play second fiddle to the water - both storm surge and inland flooding.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 11, 2018
Late Monday thoughts about #Florence.

If you look at the NHC forecast, you’ll notice that the track has shifted to the east a couple dozen miles or so.

Don’t celebrate.

1/
The track has shifted, yes.

Here’s the thing: We knew this would happen.

And if history is any guide, it will shift again. And it could just as easily shift back toward the SW as it could shift toward the NE.

In fact, a 3-day NHC forecast has an average error of 120 mi.

2/
What’s concerning - and something the NHC has mentioned in their last discussions - is that the model spread has actually gotten looser the last couple of cycles.

As @gbfishel said at 10pm, we know less about where #Florence is going now than this time yesterday.

3/
Read 13 tweets

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