Director of Weather Ops for NBCUniversal’s Owned TV Stations, NWA President-Elect for 2021, & Meteorologist for the Wolfpack. Frequent flyer, occasional pilot.
Sep 13, 2018 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Another day, another couple of totally expected track wobbles. Minor and not shifting impacts all that much.
Florence is HUGE. Put the eye in Columbia SC and the cloud shield would darken the skies from Manteo to Murphy. Plenty of wind in there, but that’s not the main story!
If you look at the NHC forecast, you’ll notice that the track has shifted to the east a couple dozen miles or so.
The track has shifted, yes.
Here’s the thing: We knew this would happen.
And if history is any guide, it will shift again. And it could just as easily shift back toward the SW as it could shift toward the NE.
In fact, a 3-day NHC forecast has an average error of 120 mi.
Sep 7, 2018 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
So, it's Friday afternoon, and #Florence is a little closer to shore. A few thoughts, if I may. 1/
The latest model runs — and more importantly, the broader-scale pattern they are picking up on — suggest the odds of a landfall mid-late next week are going up.