Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Sep 10, 2018 14 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Monday morning: what Brexit developments?

1/
Basically, none in the UK.

There's plenty of bluster though

2/
Exhibit 1: Johnson's dead cat piece on Sunday, with a metaphor that doesn't even work on its own terms

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

3/
Exhibit 2: Baker's warning about Tory Chequers rebels

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-454685…

4/
In both cases, this is more about noises off and pre-positioning for the future than active manoeuvres

5/
Note that the alternative, ERG plan has sunk back beneath the waves, like the Loch Ness monster

6/
Indeed, given the weak response to the leaks, it appears that the original intent to 'at least have something on the table' hasn't been worth the grief

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

7/
Thus it is very much like the Loch Ness monster: even if it does exist, it'd be an object of curiosity rather than our new lord and master

8/
This all just reaffirms the impression that it suits all CON factions to keep May in No.10, wear the concessions to get to Exit day, then dump her in April

9/
That's key pt of Baker's contribution: enough oppo to block Chequers, but not enough to either topple May or push through alternative plan

10/
As a result, and given this is where UK has been for many months, bigger news is word on EU mandate

ft.com/content/477ac3…

11/
EU27 might make symbolic gestures at Salzburg to help move things on and help May out of her domestic troubles (and to get a WA deal)

12/
Key pt here is 'symbolic': EU isn't suddenly going to cave in on Irish dimension or anything else, but will try to show a way fwd, logically through the Political Declaration

13/
tl;dr UK is hamstrung; EU ends up picking up the pieces

#evergreen

/end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Simon Usherwood

Simon Usherwood Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
So, what to make of today?

1/
Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/
Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/
Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line



3/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting
By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

Read 8 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
Read 11 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(