Thread by @Usherwood

Monday morning: what Brexit developments?

1/

Basically, none in the UK.

There's plenty of bluster though

2/

Exhibit 1: Johnson's dead cat piece on Sunday, with a metaphor that doesn't even work on its own terms

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

3/

Exhibit 2: Baker's warning about Tory Chequers rebels

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-454685…

4/

In both cases, this is more about noises off and pre-positioning for the future than active manoeuvres

5/

Note that the alternative, ERG plan has sunk back beneath the waves, like the Loch Ness monster

6/

Indeed, given the weak response to the leaks, it appears that the original intent to 'at least have something on the table' hasn't been worth the grief

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…

7/

Thus it is very much like the Loch Ness monster: even if it does exist, it'd be an object of curiosity rather than our new lord and master

8/

This all just reaffirms the impression that it suits all CON factions to keep May in No.10, wear the concessions to get to Exit day, then dump her in April

9/

That's key pt of Baker's contribution: enough oppo to block Chequers, but not enough to either topple May or push through alternative plan

10/

As a result, and given this is where UK has been for many months, bigger news is word on EU mandate

ft.com/content/477ac3…

11/

EU27 might make symbolic gestures at Salzburg to help move things on and help May out of her domestic troubles (and to get a WA deal)

12/

Key pt here is 'symbolic': EU isn't suddenly going to cave in on Irish dimension or anything else, but will try to show a way fwd, logically through the Political Declaration

13/

tl;dr UK is hamstrung; EU ends up picking up the pieces

#evergreen

/end