Lucid Profile picture
Sep 11, 2018 13 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Market Update:

Though I've stated this in previous posts, my current expectation is for weak bullishness near term followed by a strong break down before we put in a significant low.
Though a wont go into detail here, a few simple reasons for bearish outlook are as follows:

- impulsiveness is with the bears, continuing to see weak responses from bulls
- macro descending triangle structure on $BTC
- #alts in steady downtrends, still calling for lower targets
Until we see high probability bottoming structure, trying to buy every dip is a net losing strategy. Don't fish for bottoms unless they're extremely obvious. Though potential reward is high, it's a bad play risk adjusted.
Despite my mid term bearish outlook, I’m looking for NT respite for a number of reasons. Both $BTC and alts are currently bouncing off of significant support. We’re over-extended to the downside, $BTC has barely rested since dropping nearly 15% in less than a day.
We’ve got unconfirmed inverse H&S structure on $BTC and a number of #alts. Plenty of weak, grinding resistance trends too.

On balance of probability, I’m expecting further grinding upwards NT - a micro version of the rally we saw in August.
I’m not looking to trade this long as yet. Counter-trend rallies tend to have a lower hit rate + RR isn’t overly high.

On the contrary, I’m looking to enter short if the rally persists. Though I haven’t yet placed the orders, I may stagger asks between approx $6500 and $6650.
As mentioned in previous posts, this rally would setup volatility funnel structure on $BTC which could project targets in the $4000's and $3000's. I'm tracking this hypothetical setup closely. I'll update if/when it forms and confirms with entries and targets etc.
$ETH is still looking rough. Nothing signalling for reversal as yet. Still sticking to my low $100’s target based on linked thread.

Primarily looking to short downside continuation setups on #alts NT, though I might open a small long hedge on an inv H&S.
Though my view is pessimistic, I think there’s a strong case to be made for catching this knife on $ETH, in fact it could be the trade of the year.

Another thing to note, we're likely to see a weekly TD9 on ETH in 2 weeks time which have been significant historically (pictured).
For me personally, I’ll be staggering bids between $100 - $130 on $ETH. I’ll also have a few sub $100 bids in case we see a cascading stop/forced-liquidation capitulation (or just a wick down through thin books).
Interesting action on long/short differentials. For the longest time longs have outnumbered shorts by a large margin on nearly every alt. That balance is currently shifting which adds weight to the knife catching case as high Q of leveraged shorts helps market to make a bottom.
I'll update if I see any particularly favourable NT setups, but the main plays I'm looking at now are:

- BTC VF short
- ETH (maybe other alts) near term short if setups manifest
- ETH knife catch long if we capitulate favourably
I've been significantly less active recently, but that's mostly because my outlook hasn't changed. Most of what has been said here has been posted previously, though I hope you got some value from this nonetheless.

I'll update further as more data emerges.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Lucid

Lucid Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Lucid_TA

Sep 9, 2018
I've been astounded by the amount of people trying to trade long these past few days.

Near term trend is down, mid term trend is down. The only real reason given is that "yearly support has held 4 times previously, therefore it will likely hold again".
It seems as though these individuals must be viewing that idea in isolation. In proper context, there is really nothing bullish about recent PA.

Even if one were determined to trade this long, it'd make a lot more sense to wait for a NT uptrend before entry at the very least.
Trying to catch falling knives when momentum is so strongly against your favour is not a winning strategy long term.

Though it has yet to close, the weekly candle has consumed 2 (almost 3) weeks of gains in around 4 days. Brutal.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 9, 2018
Micro continuation setups across the board, I was looking to trade VF structure on $ETH and $BTC (mostly ETH). Setup pictured is BTC, but the same structure was present on ETH.

Intended entry was on green line break. I was woken at 4am but missed it as it happened so fast.
Though it's unfortunate to have missed these last 2 significant spills (especially as I've been tracking this exact move for a long time), there are always more opportunities.
At the very least it's a great example of why this strategy is so successful. The idea is to catch maximum RR with min time on risk. Entries are aimed to occur just as the market moves violently so that positions move heavily in your favour shortly after the trade is opened.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 6, 2018
Potential volatility funnel structure to form on $BTC. Looking for consolidation around volume node/prior trading range. If applicable, early would be around the $6500 region.

I'll update further if the setup eventuates.
Micro update; $BTC currently around the upper bound of the zone in which I'm looking for consolidation. Though it doesn't have to occur, I think there's a decent chance we see a retracement here soon. Rest of the market would likely follow. Arrows were a bit off of course.
Further Update:

Fairly strong chance that this is the beginning of the last dead cat bounce before new lows. I doubt we'll see strong follow-through from the bulls, expecting a shallow grind, or tightening volatility pattern.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 5, 2018
Market Update:

Interesting scenes in the markets right now.

$BTC dropped $250 in the last hour and is currently bouncing off of support. There is confluence between a support trend line as well as a horizontal support zone.
Prior to the spill BTC went ultra low vol. Imperfect RW structure was also present. Typically the direction in which volatility returns is indicative of the direction in which momentum will persist for a period.
Things look a lot worse on $ETH. Downside continuation structure has triggered and confirmed (chart pictured is inverse). Unfortunately I was out at dinner when the micro squeeze (shown in white) broke so I missed proper entry. Looking to short on pullbacks or further setups.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 3, 2018
Looking at a potential long on $XRP.

Basic entry strategy is as pictured. Potential for early entry in the yellow zone with a fairly tight stop. This initial entry would be treated as a semi-scalp, I'd look to take profit early and move stop lose to new base price.
On the other hand, setup confirmation and proper entry comes if/when the bold green line is broken.
Part of the reason I'm looking at XRP particularly is due to the fact that it over-performed relative to the rest of the market off the lows, and has underperformed thereafter. If historical trends continue, then XRP is likely to outperform the market if we get another leg up.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 2, 2018
Quick Update:

I'll post something more detailed tomorrow, just a few basic thoughts here. $BTC did end up hitting the zone I previously mentioned as being an ideal top, currently bouncing off of it.
Fairly significant confluence of resistance in this region.

128 Day MA has proven to be significant almost every time it's been tested for years. Base of prior consolidation zone. Price target on setup has also just been hit. Resistance trend line as well.
On the other hand, PA on BTC certainly looks alright for the bulls. We've seen a gradual stair stepping upwards, with prior resistance consistently becoming support. Typically a weak response to capitulation is bearish - though of course that changes if it's sustained.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!