Thread by @Usherwood

Let's unpick Barnier's "6 to 8 weeks" timeline for a deal on the WA:

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

1/

That's the first half of Nov, when we hear ever more mutterings about a special #EUCO

2/

Given the downgrading of the Oct #EUCO (now only one day) in light of non-progress, the new mtg wld be the most convenient first point to get the WA signed off

3/

But to do that, quite a lot needs to happen first.

4/

Working backwards, you'd need the approval of the EU27 internally, off the back of a briefing from Barnier. These usually happen about a week before the #EUCO

5/

Barnier wld be briefing on successful negotiations with the UK, following some rounds of back-and-forth with national capitals (EU and UK) about terms. This'd be the bit that takes most time

6/

But all of that needs to be triggered by someone advancing some proposals about how to unblock the remaining issues (Irish dimension, governance, etc.)

7/

And that's the real block right now.

To have a reasonable chance of hitting Nov, movement is needed now, and particularly from the UK

8/

That's because while HMG says it'll accept the backstop in WA, it'll only do so if it never has to be used. So it's on them to find a form of words to achieve this.

9/

The difficulty is the looming party conference season, when May might not want to give any more ammo to opponents (although she might calculate that they are more mouth than trousers, given the past week)

10/

So, Barnier's schedule is viable, but only if fingers are pulled out now. Which they might well not be.

/end