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Beth Rigby Profile picture
@BethRigby
Sep 12, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Top story on @SkyNews this morning: Tories openly discussing ousting May at an ERG meeting last night: Brexiteers clearly split between those who want a true Brexiteer in power (some Johnson supporters and those who want to chuck Chequers not here (the @DavidDavisMP camp)
But have they got the numbers? Could get the 48 letters into the 1922 chair to trigger a confidence vote, but No 10 sources say May will stay and fight......
Once confidence vote triggered, half the parliamentary party (near 160 MPs) would have to vote against her to force a leadership bid. No 10 sources clear she won’t stand down unless she loses a confidence vote. So there simply aren’t the numbers to force her out, yet.....
Also, if MPs do trigger a confidence vote and May wins, they can’t trigger for another one for a year, at which point May will be into negotiating a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU. So you can see why many Brexiteers are focused - for now - on chucking Chequers not her
This is why the point of maximum danger for May in Nov/Dec if/when she brings her Chequers deal to HoC for vote. If it falls and she’s defeated we’re into political chaos
Also on #ERG. Told senior members - likes of Patel & Rees-Mogg - not at meeting (though chaired by @SteveBakerHW). And it was backbenchers fed up with May talking of trying to oust her. This not the position of ERG nor do these MPs speak for ERG

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More from @BethRigby

Beth Rigby Profile picture
Sep 13, 2018
NEW: No-deal roaming charges. Govt confirms my story that surcharge-free roaming "cannot be guaranteed" in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Govt also (as I reported) says it will legislate to apply limits if necessary. Notes some operators "no current plans" to change approach
And.... While govt keen to stress companies covering 85% of consumers say have "no current plans" to reintroduce roaming charges, that is very different from current EU's legal protection, aka 'Roam Like at Home'. And 15% consumers NOT covered in that pledge (a lot of phones)
NO DEAL DRIVING: You'll need an international permit to drive in EU. AA bemoans "extra burden" & says it's disappointed these permits can only be issued at Post Offices. Cost = £5.50. Queue times? NAO said PO's might have to issue up to 7m of these permits in first year... urgh
Read 6 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
Sep 10, 2018
NEW: just ran into @SteveBakerHW outside parliament. 1] Sticking to that 80 PMs number. Says before recess 80 colleagues said they were willing to "protest Chequers" via amendments in the HoC
2] If May won't chuck Chequers will you try to chuck her? @SteveBakerHW: "We want to support TM as PM driving towards a free trade agreement and it is essential that this is done because alternative is crisis and rupture and we are trying to avoid that" (coming up on @skynews)
3] @SteveBakerHW on whether he will back @BorisJohnson for leader is May doesn't change course: "I am not here today to either threaten the PM or make any suggestion that we should replace her. what we want to do it change the policy not the person."
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
Sep 10, 2018
No alternative Brexit plan yet from the ERG. But @SteveBakerHW tells PA May risks "catastrophic split" in party if she doesn't chuck Chequers. Says 80 MPs ready to vote in down in Commons 1/3
@SteveBakerHW Warning comes as @BorisJohnson sketches out a domestic policy platform that will infuriate No10/Hammond & delight grassroots: No more tax hikes under a [Johnson] Tory govt. (no mention of the Treasury warning of a £80bn no-deal black hole in public finances) 2/3
@SteveBakerHW @BorisJohnson Baker warning comes after significant @FT splash saying EU leaders will give Barnier new instructions to help close a Brecit deal at informal Salzburg summit later this month: lifeline for No 10's Chequers plan >> ft.com/content/477ac3…
Read 4 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
Aug 24, 2018
Treasury source said Raab was shown letter ahead of publication (via @TomBoadle) & it was agreed that it would be published alongside the impact studies
The *actual* content of the letter has no new forecasts but if does offer new language impressing on colleagues the benefits over the Chequers deal (which many hate) over No Deal
For many Brexiteers, No Deal is better than a Chequers Deal (TM @ShonaSomerville) and so Remainer-in-chief Hammond’s reminder of the ec threat of no deal sparked anger even though he’s actually endorsing No 10’s position
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
Jul 6, 2018
1) #Chequers today with the scene set for a big showdown. Six Brexiteers - led by Johnson & Davis - to tell PM her plan not acceptable; told that Javid, Williamson & Alan Cairns behind them. PM can’t afford to alienate 9 cabinet ministers
2) Brexiteers baulked at language around a “common rule book” for goods & agribusiness, which will undermine a future trade deal with US. Brexiteer source told me last night this part of the paper needs reworking
3) Phone calls going on as No 10 tries to reassure angry Brexiteers. Source says claims this plan will mean UK can’t sign trade deals ‘simply wrong’
Read 10 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
Jul 2, 2018
Is there a third way? Apparently so. No 10 saying this morning that is has an alternative customs plan to present at Chequers that is neither Max fac nor Customs partnership. #chequers #brexit
No detail on this 'third way' & no briefing papers yet to ministers. Customs plan to be revealed on Friday at #Chequers. One senior minister: "I think it'll be a hybrid, complex fudge specifically tailored for a different regime for goods and services" #brexit
Senior minister: "If we didn't have a lawyerly fudge and were out with no deal, that would be costly. Those saying we should take on the world are delusional"
Read 4 tweets

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