Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Chequers
Most recents (19)
A 'Greatest Hits' collection of slides on #Brexit & @BorderIrish
[for those covering the topic in weeks to come
& who might value a few prompt cards] š¤
Inc. @BelfastAgmt, #crossborder #customs #backstop #chequers #BorderTech, NI party & public views.
qpol.qub.ac.uk/brexit-irish-bā¦
[for those covering the topic in weeks to come
& who might value a few prompt cards] š¤
Inc. @BelfastAgmt, #crossborder #customs #backstop #chequers #BorderTech, NI party & public views.
qpol.qub.ac.uk/brexit-irish-bā¦
1998 Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement
2/12
2/12
Risks to peace process
3/12
3/12
German Chancellor Angela #Merkel: "I explicitly want to commend the work done by @MichelBarnier and his team [...] all member states are being involved in the process in an excellent manner, which results in a high level of unity." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
#Merkel: "It has become clear today that we need substantial progress until October, and that we then aim to finalise everything in November." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
#Merkel: "On the basis of #Chequers, there are a multitude of commonalities, esp on internal security, international cooperation, and many other issues." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
For those of you who do not speak German, a short thread about my piece on dangers of #NoDealBrexit in @TspCausa causa.tagesspiegel.de/politik/auf-deā¦
Theresa May has always said 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal', but there is a new quality to the No Deal-Talk since #Chequers
The claim that #NoDealBrexit would not be "the end of the word" is a wild understatement. As @anandMenon1 @jdportes and otheres have pointed out it would most likely not mean lots of mini-deals, no deal at all, at least in the short term
Small thread to confidently predict the #Brexit end game. Quite simply there is no other plausible scenario then this..
1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them.
1/ increasingly clear what will happen with #Brexit. The EU will take the #Chequers deal, tweak it, likely beyond recognition, so it fits them.
2/ ..as there is now no time left for negotiations, May will have little resistance to EU. It will be a Canada+ deal with as many optional extras that prompt payment of Ā£39bn can buy - probably not that much. NIreland will be fudged.
Then the great House of Commons showdown...
Then the great House of Commons showdown...
3/ the great parliamentary showdown simply wonāt happen. 650 MPs will be faced with horrible but ultimately easy choice: a lousy deal or a catastrophic no deal. 200 Tory MPs will back govt. it will only take a few dozen Labour MPs to abstain or vote for #brexit and it will pass.
Where is the European Research Group's plan for #Brexit? We're eager to see your alternative to #Chequers
So @SteveBakerHW tells @SkyNews aim is an āadvanced free trade agreementā with cooperation on security and other areas - says it's not backbenchersā job to dictate policy to govt but warns of catastrophic split with Chequers...
ā¦says colleagues have v clear ideas about what ought to be done & how it should be delivered ā but instead of publishing full plan they will focus on a narrow range of issues starting with Northern Ireland ā says they wonāt be driven when time is not right.
No alternative Brexit plan yet from the ERG. But @SteveBakerHW tells PA May risks "catastrophic split" in party if she doesn't chuck Chequers. Says 80 MPs ready to vote in down in Commons 1/3
@SteveBakerHW Warning comes as @BorisJohnson sketches out a domestic policy platform that will infuriate No10/Hammond & delight grassroots: No more tax hikes under a [Johnson] Tory govt. (no mention of the Treasury warning of a Ā£80bn no-deal black hole in public finances) 2/3
@SteveBakerHW @BorisJohnson Baker warning comes after significant @FT splash saying EU leaders will give Barnier new instructions to help close a Brecit deal at informal Salzburg summit later this month: lifeline for No 10's Chequers plan >> ft.com/content/477ac3ā¦
Here's a thread attempting to set out the #Brexit timetable for the next few months, based on this insightful @brunobrussels article:
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/aā¦
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/aā¦
Salzburg Summit 20 Sept:
"Shouting over the ābackstopā + starting point of a 'āpolitical declarationā on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
"Shouting over the ābackstopā + starting point of a 'āpolitical declarationā on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
Tory party conference 1-3 Oct:
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Thread: "#Brexit & #Chequers, the sellout. Dump it, let's move on".
...
I keep hearing "Where is the plan?" and a load of misinformation on #Brexit, pushed on UK media by irrelevant & biased commentators, elevated simply because they are avid Remoaners.
They aim to distract.
1/19
...
I keep hearing "Where is the plan?" and a load of misinformation on #Brexit, pushed on UK media by irrelevant & biased commentators, elevated simply because they are avid Remoaners.
They aim to distract.
1/19
We already knew from those tasked with the negotiations, there had been a definite direction of travel & #Brexit plans were well advanced, prior to #Chequers.
2/19
2/19
David Davis & his team had been constantly rebuffed by Number 10, as they tried to pursue a proper #Brexit plan, but they HAD been making progress.
3/19
3/19
Why did the European Commission not publish killer assessments of May's 'single market for goods' #Brexit pitch? How did the Brits get hold of them so quickly? Some thoughts. 1/THREAD
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/ā¦
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/ā¦
First the bugging part. Did the spooks at GCHQ/MI6 have a hand in procuring the slides, or contents thereof, from the July 5 Article 50 Working Group?
Frankly, who knows? It's sure not impossible - recall Obama's NSA bugged Merkel - but EU concerns speak to the lack of trust/2
Frankly, who knows? It's sure not impossible - recall Obama's NSA bugged Merkel - but EU concerns speak to the lack of trust/2
Just as plausibly one of those attending briefed the Brits that the Commission was about to fire a pre-emptive strike against May's expected Brexit pitch on the day of Chequers.
If that's what happened, it raises several interesting questions. /3
If that's what happened, it raises several interesting questions. /3
Something is happening out there in #Brexit Britain [thread] 1/
Following all the ballyhoo from the #chequers cabinet & resultant white paper, something has changed. Finally the penny is beginning to drop. What is my evidence? Well of course its anecdotal but here are a few bits 2/
Watching #bbcqt last night from Brexity Dartford, there seemed to be a clear change of mood. There were the usual calls of "just leave" but the audience response was muted. @claireperrymp gave an admission - a 1st for Govt Minister of how difficult the process of leaving is. 3/
Inside the minds of Conservative Party voters - a thread
We seem to be talking a lot about what Conservative MPs want but not a lot about what Conservative voters want
One of the reasons that many in Britain have been repeatedly shocked by political change -Ukip, Corbyn, Brexit- is because they've not been paying sufficient attention to public opinion & voters
Some quick thoughts on #chequers outcome...
1. There is more realism in it than weāve seen before from UK government (though thatās not saying much!) - so, to that extent, hopefully a step forward. However...
1. There is more realism in it than weāve seen before from UK government (though thatās not saying much!) - so, to that extent, hopefully a step forward. However...
2...still massive unresolved questions about acceptability to EU (it still reads like cherry picking and an attempt to divide four freedoms), deliverability (given the sheer complexities), and desirability (especially around impact on services - a real and profound concern)...
3. But perhaps key point is this - if this becomes the UK starting point in negotiations, it is surely game on for those who would prefer to see a full single market/customs union outcome.
Chequers latest:
Am told that Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey grumbled about the Brexit offering....but Boris was very quiet and Gove enthusiastic while Fox and Grayling (whoās doing Today tomorrow) were on good behaviour: some Tory Eurosceptics annoyed that no one resigned....
Am told that Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey grumbled about the Brexit offering....but Boris was very quiet and Gove enthusiastic while Fox and Grayling (whoās doing Today tomorrow) were on good behaviour: some Tory Eurosceptics annoyed that no one resigned....
Indeed apparently Boris gave a mini speech at dinner supporting the deal, some colleagues found it āmovingā apparently, that bit may or may not be sarcastic
this is like being promised Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid and getting Love Actually instead
Not just commitment to same standards on goods (means efficiency, waste, chemicals, ewaste, etc standards all stay), but also firm commitment to high standards on environment and climate policy. #Chequers
EU is still never going to buy splitting goods and services, but still, what a huge step forward towards some form of pragmatism after so many wasted months.
Although, it could, of course, all fall apart at any time and the Hard Brexiters are not simply going to give up their pursuit of full blown deregulation.
So @MichelBarnier
may have appeared to pull his punches today, but don't be fooled. He stuck firmly to EU guns.
This is a key word "de-dramatise" and you'll hear it a lot more - and it is not good news for Mrs May. Here's why /1
may have appeared to pull his punches today, but don't be fooled. He stuck firmly to EU guns.
This is a key word "de-dramatise" and you'll hear it a lot more - and it is not good news for Mrs May. Here's why /1
If EU sticks to guns on cherry-picking, then that leaves UK with basic FTA...and that means an Irish sea goods border.
When Barnier says "de-dramatise" he means May and Davis need to give over on their contention that such a border is a threat to UK constitutional integrity /2
When Barnier says "de-dramatise" he means May and Davis need to give over on their contention that such a border is a threat to UK constitutional integrity /2
So when Barnier uses this word, it's code for "the only compromise we need here is by the UK" on the question of the east-west border that would be thrown up by hiving of Northern Ireland into separate regulatory orbit. Something May has said is "unacceptable". /3
Is Theresa finally spoiling for a #Brexit fight? Might she finally be about to force clarity? No 10 sources talking tough to ā¦@Jack_Blanchard_ā© playbook on the #Chequers summit.
Where @FraserNelson reckons the Brexit bunch will bottle it. Just like always. Makes you wonder why the wasted months in forcing a viable position? Letās see if May folds too? She has to leave the #Chequers summit with something EU can look at.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/ā¦
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/ā¦
But keep an eye out for @MichelBarnier speech this AM. Fears on U.K. side he may pre-emptively stomp on the May plan. Understand it took an absolute kicking at Article 50 working group yesterday. Commission stiffening spines in case U.K. offer tempts?
1) #Chequers today with the scene set for a big showdown. Six Brexiteers - led by Johnson & Davis - to tell PM her plan not acceptable; told that Javid, Williamson & Alan Cairns behind them. PM canāt afford to alienate 9 cabinet ministers
2) Brexiteers baulked at language around a ācommon rule bookā for goods & agribusiness, which will undermine a future trade deal with US. Brexiteer source told me last night this part of the paper needs reworking
3) Phone calls going on as No 10 tries to reassure angry Brexiteers. Source says claims this plan will mean UK canāt sign trade deals āsimply wrongā
Is there a third way? Apparently so. No 10 saying this morning that is has an alternative customs plan to present at Chequers that is neither Max fac nor Customs partnership. #chequers #brexit
No detail on this 'third way' & no briefing papers yet to ministers. Customs plan to be revealed on Friday at #Chequers. One senior minister: "I think it'll be a hybrid, complex fudge specifically tailored for a different regime for goods and services" #brexit
Senior minister: "If we didn't have a lawyerly fudge and were out with no deal, that would be costly. Those saying we should take on the world are delusional"
