Pieter Cleppe Profile picture
Sep 7, 2018 12 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Here's a thread attempting to set out the #Brexit timetable for the next few months, based on this insightful @brunobrussels article:
Salzburg Summit 20 Sept:
"Shouting over the “backstop” + starting point of a '“political declaration” on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
Tory party conference 1-3 Oct:
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
Mid Oct, pre 18 Oct #EUCO Summit:
UK must agree to:
-"legal text (of backstop) in the days before the October summit"
-"leaving the hard negotiation on the real details of a future relationship"
-"keep Chequers white paper intact against biggest enemies within [the Tory] party"
Mid Oct, pre 18 Oct #EUCO Summit:
EU concession:
- "EU’s negotiating mandate is expected to be updated ahead of [Oct #euco] with words that offer a welcome of the #Chequers plan as the basis for the declaration"
"Special Brexit summit, probably in the week of 12 Nov":
"to hammer out a declaration that is a “joint UK and European Council product”"
This would be the content of the declaration:
1. UK accepts backstop is enshrined legally into the withdrawal agreement but EU27 promise (politically) that the backstop will not to be needed
As article puts it: "EU is ready to agree a declr using language that, as Chequers itself spelt out, will “ensure that the operational legal text that the UK will nonetheless agree on the ‘backstop’ solution as part of the Withdrawal Agr. wouldn't need to be brought into effect”
Content of the declaration:
2. The declaration aims to foresee from Jan 2021 (end of transition) an "extended transition well into the 2020s with a final destination of quasi single market membership and a shared customs territory"
Not clear what “quasi single market membership” means.
Supposedly something like #Chequers (Swiss-style partial market access in return for being a partial rule-taker), as reportedly the EU will "welcome" Chequers as a basis & wants PM May to "keep it intact" against her party)?
Also, what does “shared customs territory” mean?
If it means "no trade freedom ever" for UK, that won't be acceptable for UK. But will Ireland accept not ruling out customs checks on the N-Irish border?
There are 4 #Brexit red lines:
-a customs border in the Irish Sea (UK)
-customs checks in N-Ireland (EU)
-customs checks between EU & UK (UK-EU supply chains)
-trade freedom for UK (UK)
FCA (UK collecting EU customs) seems only way out, but EU is against:

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