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So, what to make of today?
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Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump
But lots of reining in during the day
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But lots of reining in during the day
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Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment
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Some important comments on #Brexit from @campaignforleo at a modest press conference in Brussels. He said there's a good opportunity to clinch a deal over the next fortnight. (1)
On a UK-wide customs arrangement: "A lot of countries would take the view that any UK-wide arrangement is really a matter for the future relationship rather than a backstop which is for N Ireland and Ireland. Also there's the whole issue of the level playing field..." (2)
He pointed out there is currently no N Irish Assembly or Executive to approve any new regulatory checks, as reportedly being considered by the UK government. (3)
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
Salzburg: a positive take:
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In the midst of all the shock and gloom, let's see if we can build a more constructive view of this week's events (as a thought exercise, if nothing else)
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At one level, if we're being Mayish, nothing has changed. EU objections to Chequers have been stated before, together with the comments about it having some positive elements
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The lessons of Salzburg:
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Good will matters.
A distinct sense that some of today's comments come from exasperation as much as anything else
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A distinct sense that some of today's comments come from exasperation as much as anything else
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Time matters.
All well and good to ask for 'maximum progress' by Oct #EUCO, but that means mvt now, when May is least able to deliver
Plus the Art.50 clock ticks on
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All well and good to ask for 'maximum progress' by Oct #EUCO, but that means mvt now, when May is least able to deliver
Plus the Art.50 clock ticks on
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So here's the tension in Art.50 talks.
More detail in Pol Declaration is good for getting towards end-state EU-UK relationship, but is likely to mean less chance of agreeing Pol Dec/WA in first place (as it'll require shift from Chequers)
More detail in Pol Declaration is good for getting towards end-state EU-UK relationship, but is likely to mean less chance of agreeing Pol Dec/WA in first place (as it'll require shift from Chequers)
Add to that the Tusk line just now that Oct #EUCO remains central to the timeline and both sides have to make a rapid decision about the PD
Expedience suggests a vaguer PD, so May can hold on to something more to sell back home, but at cost of locking in a course of action in future relationship talks from March.
Tusk: Key pts of Brexit discussion
WA needs operational IE backstop.
Pol Dec'n should be as clear as possible
Oct #EUCO 'moment of truth' & pt of decision on extra Nov mtg
WA needs operational IE backstop.
Pol Dec'n should be as clear as possible
Oct #EUCO 'moment of truth' & pt of decision on extra Nov mtg
Last point is main one: EU not going to extend timeline now, on basis of what occurred in Salzburg.
UK will have to show good will and substantive advance to secure Nov #EUCO
UK will have to show good will and substantive advance to secure Nov #EUCO
I'll take this all as corrective to worries that softer words this week were being taken as start of moving on their red lines
German Chancellor Angela #Merkel: "I explicitly want to commend the work done by @MichelBarnier and his team [...] all member states are being involved in the process in an excellent manner, which results in a high level of unity." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
#Merkel: "It has become clear today that we need substantial progress until October, and that we then aim to finalise everything in November." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
#Merkel: "On the basis of #Chequers, there are a multitude of commonalities, esp on internal security, international cooperation, and many other issues." #SalzburgSummit #EUCO
Given the downgrading of the Oct #EUCO (now only one day) in light of non-progress, the new mtg wld be the most convenient first point to get the WA signed off
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Here's a thread attempting to set out the #Brexit timetable for the next few months, based on this insightful @brunobrussels article:
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/a…
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/a…
Salzburg Summit 20 Sept:
"Shouting over the “backstop” + starting point of a '“political declaration” on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
"Shouting over the “backstop” + starting point of a '“political declaration” on the future relationship that will be thrashed out at a sequence of summits'
Tory party conference 1-3 Oct:
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
Hoping "Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers in the Conservative European Research Group" do not do anything to prevent the next planned steps
European Parliament has just had an update on #Brexit from @danutahuebner who chairs the @EPInstitutional committee and is on the Brexit Steering Group (1)
▶️no idea when Brexit deal will arrive at European Parliament
▶️last point that Parliament can vote is first plenary session in March 19 because the second session would be too late
▶️negotiations have intensified but she hopes this isn't "a trick" (2)
▶️last point that Parliament can vote is first plenary session in March 19 because the second session would be too late
▶️negotiations have intensified but she hopes this isn't "a trick" (2)
▶️She had a meeting with @ukineu Sir Tim Barrow about the endgame
▶️political declaration on future relationship will not be legal text or legally binding
▶️views shifting towards political declaration being general because not enough time to negotiate the detail (3)
▶️political declaration on future relationship will not be legal text or legally binding
▶️views shifting towards political declaration being general because not enough time to negotiate the detail (3)
This is an important development, for several reasons:
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Firstly, it's a much more public recognition of what was already widely understood: progress has been too minimal since March(!) On WA issues to allow for an Oct #EUCO conclusion
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That in turn means that there's a drop in pressure to bust a gut right now to get things moving (Not that anyone was very obviously so doing)
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I repost this, mainly because the situation has moved rather a lot since:
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At the time (March), things looked a lot more open, so the various scenarios were quite balanced in their likelihood
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However, the intervening delays and disagreements have now shifted that balance quite markedly
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Aua, das tut weh: #Seehofers Demontage durch die Vertretung der Bundesregierung in Brüssel passt in einen Thread. 1/6
Seehofer versprach Großbritannien einen speziellen Deal in der Sicherheitspolitik post-#Brexit. Den wird es nicht geben — schrieb @GermanyintheEU an die @EU_Commission. Der kurze Brief im Wortlaut: 2/6
"Mit Schreiben vom 27. Juni hat sich Bundesminister Seehofer zur künftigen Zusammenarbeit..in Fragen der inneren Sicherheit geäußert. Ich möchte klarstellen, dass es sich hierbei um ein in der Bundesregierung nicht abgestimmtes Schreiben handelt." 3/6
How about we start this lovely morning with a trip down memory lane?
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You'll recall the Maastricht treaty: bane of eurosceptics, source of so many woes, embodiment of federal visions? Whatever
Today I'm more interested in its signing
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Today I'm more interested in its signing
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If you think back to then (those of you old enough to remember the early 1990s), you probably think about this: the late-night debates and arguments in 9-10 Dec at the #EUCO
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A quick couple of thoughts on the 'darkest before the dawn' view of Brexit:
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The next couple of weeks really do matter for Brexit, not least because several other, earlier crunch points resulting in stasis
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EU broadly accepted that last week's #EUCO wouldn't produce much, largely because of the promise of next week's White Paper (WP)
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My take on #EUCO compromise on #EUmigration for @delorsinstitut: Most proposals build on existing ideas & EU leaders fail to move beyond lowest common denominator. THREAD delorsinstitut.de/en/all-publica…
1/7 Decision to expand Frontex mandate is not new. It basically resembles decision to establish EBCG & MFF proposal (€ 21bn for Frontex & Border Management Fund)
2/7 Idea of 'controlled centres' appears as continuation of hotspot system. Unclear how human rights safeguards & detention are handled. Also: EASO/EUAA lack mandate to process asylum claims. 'Rapid & secure' processing would have to be done by MS
My mind keeps returning to this extraordinary and ridiculous #Brexit tweet from Downing Street earlier:
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Commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act.
Seriously, commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act?
The Brexit equivalent of Charles and Diana commemorative mugs, as one wag said to me on Twitter.
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Seriously, commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act?
The Brexit equivalent of Charles and Diana commemorative mugs, as one wag said to me on Twitter.
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Ultimately history will judge whether the Withdrawal Act was an important staging post on the route towards Brexit.
Trying to pre-judge the historic-ness of it (or not) just looks crass. Like something from The Thick of It.
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Trying to pre-judge the historic-ness of it (or not) just looks crass. Like something from The Thick of It.
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Understand Italy threatening to block everything at #EUCO. Source says PM Conte “arrogant and made a fool of himself” during very heated discussion
Note: Italy blocking conclusions on everything because of immigration before immigration even discussed. You can see why other leaders irritated
Some thoughts on the idea of establishing refugee “reception centres” / “disembarkation platforms” outside the EU's borders, which will be discussed at #EUCO later this week.
While the concept has some merits, its implementation is fraught with problems. [THREAD, 1/ ]
While the concept has some merits, its implementation is fraught with problems. [THREAD, 1/ ]
The idea, in short, is to create centres outside the EU (e.g. Northern Africa, Balkans), where refugees can lodge their asylum claims & have them assessed by authorities. If asylum is granted, they can then travel on into EU safely. 2/
There are some attractive aspects to this model. Deaths would be reduced as refugees would no longer need to cross the Mediterranean (>3.100 deaths last year) to claim asylum. Smuggling business would go down & threat to Schengen zone would be reduced. 3/
Brexit is on the agenda, but right down the list, as EU has plenty of other stuff to deal with.
Info here: consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/eu…
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Info here: consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/eu…
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That other stuff is proving problematic, and pressingly so, so expect it to take up much of the bandwidth tomorrow and Fri
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A quick reminder of how the EU handles Brexit:
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(this is in anticipation of Thurs/Fri when ppl complain 'EU isn't talking much about it' (and again for Oct & Dec and even any special Art.50 mtgs)
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#EUCO meetings now only discuss Art.50/Brexit at two points:
informally when UK is present (eg at dinner)
and in formal session, when UK is absent (after main EUCO)
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informally when UK is present (eg at dinner)
and in formal session, when UK is absent (after main EUCO)
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There are two, interlinked issues at play this week.
Desire to get a WA deal and lack of UK suggestions on how to get to one
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Desire to get a WA deal and lack of UK suggestions on how to get to one
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EU, like HMG, wants a deal very much, because no-deal is both intrinsically bad and it'll add to the already overly-long list of problems on its plate
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🚢🤔📈🧐📉
So. The #Lifeline case has descended into another Aquarius case. Meanwhile, 16 leaders of EU Member States meet for an #EUCO informal meeting on #migrationEU.
Time for a brief recap of the role of #NGO-s doing #SAR operations in the Central Mediterranean? 👇
So. The #Lifeline case has descended into another Aquarius case. Meanwhile, 16 leaders of EU Member States meet for an #EUCO informal meeting on #migrationEU.
Time for a brief recap of the role of #NGO-s doing #SAR operations in the Central Mediterranean? 👇
First: PERCEPTIONS MATTER. 📺🤔
Irregular sea arrivals to Italy are WAY down, and continue to be (-78% y-o-y), even as NGOs carried out over 40% of SAR operations in 2017 and 2018.
Still, 51% of Italians believe flows are as high or higher than last year's.👇
Irregular sea arrivals to Italy are WAY down, and continue to be (-78% y-o-y), even as NGOs carried out over 40% of SAR operations in 2017 and 2018.
Still, 51% of Italians believe flows are as high or higher than last year's.👇
