Thread by @Usherwood

Salzburg: a positive take:

1/

In the midst of all the shock and gloom, let's see if we can build a more constructive view of this week's events (as a thought exercise, if nothing else)

2/

At one level, if we're being Mayish, nothing has changed. EU objections to Chequers have been stated before, together with the comments about it having some positive elements

3/

Even the holding back on a Nov #EUCO isn't such a big change, esp since that extra mtg wasn't definite beforehand, and progress would be needed in any case to make it worthwhile

4/

In addition, EU will feel that it's re-benchmarked its position: desirous to get a deal, but not at expense of core interests. Evident that there had been some concern UK was taking warm words as prelude to concessions

5/

EU might also feel that UK is finally getting message that since Brexit is UK's decision, it's UK's responsibility to sort it out and advance options.

(I think this is understandable, but overstated, IMO)

6/

No.10 might also take away that it's got a genuine argument on its hands, rather than a confected one that critics anticipated, so can take that to @ConferenceCP to show how May is sticking it to them

7/

But that's about it, other than everyone getting their Sound of Music puns out of their systems (under @Berlaymonster guidance)

8/

The costs are marked, so let's run through those

9/

May now has an even harder time to sell Chequers to anyone as a viable plan, and there's no back-up to whip out

10/

CON unhappiness (euphemism alert) w May, No.10, Robbins et al will only grow, esp as Salzburg looks largely like a mix of poor briefing and mgt

11/

This weekend will be critical in establishing whether anyone's been pushed over the edge, either into ERG (and we see that already in a couple of cases) or into writing to 1922 Cte

12/

Q is whether ERG/hard Brexiters will (or even can) cash in on all this. Experience suggests they'll have a bash

13/

Meanwhile, EU will come away from Salzburg feeling even more than UK/May isn't very trustworthy. Fine to talk tough, but utter lack of substantive/constructive proposals was taken as a bit of a kick in the teeth

14/

That means even more commitment to get legal guarantees on IE and everything else that matters to EU, which in turn means less scope for flexibility on WA/PD text

15/

So, we can draw out some positives, but overly this was a really bad day in the Art.50 office

/end