Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Oct 4, 2018 11 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up
If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now
COM/EU have been v.quiet in past week, to avoid upsetting any more horses, so quid pro quo is likely to be that HMG doesn't make coming negotiations any more difficult than needed
That means minimal briefing from No.10, while still running deflection from CON opponents and setting up a way through Parliament
Tension will be that May might want to delay a deal, so less time for Parliament to debate/amend/cause problems, while also recognising that sooner is better, so everyone can feel more secure about post-March period
As much as there's sympathy for May's situation in EU27, that won't be at cost of yet more chance of an unintended no-deal outcome
Domestic challenge for May is whether to assume that hard Brexiters/ERG will now not pull any triggers on things (voting down deal or leadership challenges), leaving her freer to make concessions, or to assume she's still at risk of more attacks
The DUP angle will also come into much sharper focus in coming week, as Foster and May play chicken on collapse of confidence & supply. Softening of LAB might help May on this front, esp if her gambit of 'Chequers or no-deal' pays off
However, danger here that by playing up WA/PD as 'Chequers' will also encourage Parliamentary opposition: certainly LAB and ERG have backed themselves into a corner on 'voting against it', so de-Chequerising WA/PD might be more useful to May
But these are all secondary to what happens in Brussels in coming week. Without progress there, the rest of it is meaningless

(some more on that: blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2018/…)

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More from @Usherwood

Oct 9, 2018
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/
Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/
It's a throwing up of the hands and submitting to forces beyond our control: 'there's nothing to be done'

Personally, I think there's always something to be done

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
So, what to make of today?

1/
Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/
Partly, it's sensible expectation mgt: one might have had the impression that suddenly everything was hunky-dory and the work of a moment

3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 5, 2018
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/
Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line



3/
Read 17 tweets
Oct 4, 2018
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting
By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
As we know from the infamous Barnier Steps, the EU offer is conditioned on UK red lines as much as anything

Read 8 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)

3/
Read 15 tweets
Oct 2, 2018
Johnson's speech in full: shar.es/a1elf2 via @PoliticsHome
@politicshome Essentially, we're back in "Australian points-based system" territory

Don't sweat the details, but trust my plan with the Anglo-friendly name and show some bulldog spirit
@politicshome As a challenge to May, it's got legs (because it's Johnson and because he can articulate much of the unhappiness others feel towards her)
Read 6 tweets

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