Thread by @Usherwood

Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up

If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD

Because of that hiatus after Salzburg, there's now v.little time left to achieve mvt in time for Oct #EUCO, hence the rush now

COM/EU have been v.quiet in past week, to avoid upsetting any more horses, so quid pro quo is likely to be that HMG doesn't make coming negotiations any more difficult than needed

That means minimal briefing from No.10, while still running deflection from CON opponents and setting up a way through Parliament

Tension will be that May might want to delay a deal, so less time for Parliament to debate/amend/cause problems, while also recognising that sooner is better, so everyone can feel more secure about post-March period

As much as there's sympathy for May's situation in EU27, that won't be at cost of yet more chance of an unintended no-deal outcome

Domestic challenge for May is whether to assume that hard Brexiters/ERG will now not pull any triggers on things (voting down deal or leadership challenges), leaving her freer to make concessions, or to assume she's still at risk of more attacks

The DUP angle will also come into much sharper focus in coming week, as Foster and May play chicken on collapse of confidence & supply. Softening of LAB might help May on this front, esp if her gambit of 'Chequers or no-deal' pays off

However, danger here that by playing up WA/PD as 'Chequers' will also encourage Parliamentary opposition: certainly LAB and ERG have backed themselves into a corner on 'voting against it', so de-Chequerising WA/PD might be more useful to May

But these are all secondary to what happens in Brussels in coming week. Without progress there, the rest of it is meaningless

(some more on that: blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2018/…)